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监禁如何影响再犯？剂量—反应函数的估计AI 解读

We study the causal effect of incarceration on reoffending using discontinuities in North Carolina’s sentencing guidelines. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that 1 year of incarceration causes a reduction in the likelihood of being reincarcerated within 3, 5, and 8 years from sentencing by 44%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. To parse the potentially heterogeneous dose response relationship underlying these effects, we develop an econometric model of prison sentences…

环境市场能否优于开放取用？来自加州地下水权的证据AI 解读

Environmental markets are widely prescribed as an alternative to open access regimes for natural resources. We develop a model of dynamic groundwater extraction to demonstrate how a spatial regression discontinuity design that exploits a spatially incomplete market for groundwater rights recovers a lower bound on the market’s net benefit. We apply this estimator to a major aquifer in water-scarce southern California and find that a groundwater market generated substantial…

双重差分特征价格法AI 解读

Cross-sectional estimates of hedonic price functions theoretically recover marginal values for characteristics but face endogeneity problems. Consequently, economists have introduced difference-in-differences and other quasi-experimental econometric methods into hedonic models. Unfortunately, the welfare interpretation of these estimands has not been clear. This paper shows that quasi-experimental hedonics can identify the movement along the ex post price function. It…

提前规划能否改善社区？来自坦桑尼亚的长期证据AI 解读

Africa’s demand for urban housing is soaring, even as it faces a proliferation of slums. In this setting, can modest infrastructure investments in greenfield areas where people subsequently build their own houses facilitate long-run neighborhood development? We study Sites and Services projects implemented in seven Tanzanian cities during the 1970s and 1980s, and we use a spatial regression discontinuity design to compare greenfield areas that were treated (de novo) with…

上游与下游：通用产品代码的扩散及其影响AI 解读

We study the adoption, diffusion, and impacts of the Universal Product Code (UPC) between 1975 and 1992, during the initial years of the bar code system. We find evidence of network effects in the diffusion process. Matched-sample difference-in-differences estimates show that firm size and trademark registrations increase following UPC adoption by manufacturers. Industry-level import penetration also increases with domestic UPC adoption. Our findings suggest that bar codes,…

特征定价均衡与不可分离联立方程的识别AI 解读

This paper derives conditions under which preferences and technology are nonparametrically identified in hedonic equilibrium models. With products differentiated along a quality index and agents characterized by scalar unobserved heterogeneity, single-crossing conditions on preferences and technology provide identifying restrictions in previous work. We develop similar shape restrictions in the multiattribute case. These shape restrictions, based on optimal transport theory…

事前回报与职业选择AI 解读

Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. Second, we show how beliefs data can be used to recover ex ante treatment effects and their relationship with individual choices. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupations and provide evidence of…

美国海上油气租赁拍卖中的共同价值、不可观测异质性与内生进入AI 解读

Although an auction of drilling rights is often cited as an example of common values, formal evidence has been limited by the problem of auction-level unobserved heterogeneity. We develop an empirical approach for first-price sealed-bid auctions with affiliated values, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous bidder entry. We show that important features of the model are nonparametrically identified and apply a semiparametric estimation approach to data from US offshore oil…

成本相互依赖的拍卖模型识别AI 解读

This paper provides a nonparametric identification result for procurement models with asymmetric bidders, dependent private information, and interdependent costs. For risk-neutral bidders, the model’s payoff-relevant primitives are the joint distribution of private information and each bidder’s full-information expected cost. The joint distribution of bids identifies the joint distribution of signals. First-order conditions identify the expected cost conditional on tying…

总产出生产函数的识别AI 解读

We study the nonparametric identification of gross output production functions under the environment of the commonly employed proxy variable methods. We show that applying these methods to gross output requires additional sources of variation in the demand for flexible inputs (e.g., prices). Using a transformation of the firm’s first-order condition, we develop a new nonparametric identification strategy for gross output that can be employed even when additional sources of…

大都市住房市场均衡模型估计的新方法AI 解读

We provide a new estimator for a broad class of equilibrium models of metropolitan housing markets with housing differentiated by quality. Quality is a latent variable that captures all features of a dwelling and its environment. We estimate the model for Chicago and New York, obtaining hedonic housing price functions for each quality level for each metropolitan area, stocks of each quality, and compensating variations required for a household of a given income in Chicago to…

优势家庭儿童0—2岁日托的认知与非认知代价AI 解读

Exploiting admission thresholds to the Bologna day care system, we show using a regression discontinuity (RD) design that one additional day care month at age 0–2 reduces intelligence quotient by 0.5% (4.7% of a standard deviation) at age 8–14 in a relatively affluent population. The magnitude of this negative effect increases with family income. Similar negative impacts are found for personality traits. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis from psychology that…

资产定价的需求系统方法AI 解读

We develop an asset pricing model with flexible heterogeneity in asset demand across investors, designed to match institutional and household holdings. A portfolio choice model implies characteristics-based demand when returns have a factor structure and expected returns and factor loadings depend on the assets’ own characteristics. We propose an instrumental variables estimator for the characteristics-based demand system to address the endogeneity of demand and asset…

谁愿意让保障性住房建在自家附近？低收入住房开发的均衡分析AI 解读

We nonparametrically estimate spillovers of properties financed by the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) onto neighborhood residents by developing a new difference-in-differences style estimator. LIHTC development revitalizes low-income neighborhoods, increasing house prices 6.5 percent, lowering crime rates, and attracting racially and income diverse populations. LIHTC development in higher-income areas causes house price declines of 2.5 percent and attracts…

民主确实促进增长AI 解读

We provide evidence that democracy has a positive effect on GDP per capita. Our dynamic panel strategy controls for country fixed effects and the rich dynamics of GDP, which otherwise confound the effect of democracy. To reduce measurement error, we introduce a new indicator of democracy that consolidates previous measures. Our baseline results show that democratizations increase GDP per capita by about 20 percent in the long run. We find similar effects using a propensity…

文化与税收AI 解读

We propose a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the existence of interjurisdictional tax competition. Our strategy rests on differences between desired tax levels determined by culture-specific preferences and equilibrium tax levels determined by fiscal externalities and by preferences. While preferences differ systematically between French-speaking and German-speaking Swiss municipalities, local income tax burdens exhibit smooth spatial gradients. To qualify the…

非线性定价的结构分析AI 解读

This paper proposes a new methodology for analyzing nonlinear pricing data. We establish identification of the model primitives with a known tariff and characterize the model restrictions on observables. We propose a quantile-based nonparametric estimator that achieves consistency at the parametric rate. We introduce unobserved product heterogeneity with an unknown tariff and show how our identification and estimation results extend. A Monte Carlo study analyzes the…

谁受益于普惠托育？早期托育参与的边际回报估计AI 解读

We examine heterogeneous treatment effects of a universal child care program in Germany by exploiting variation in attendance caused by a reform that led to a large expansion staggered across municipalities. Drawing on novel administrative data from the full population of compulsory school entry examinations, we find that children with lower (observed and unobserved) gains are more likely to select into child care than children with higher gains. Children from disadvantaged…

失业保险潜在领取期限与劳动供给：福利削减的个体及市场反应AI 解读

We examine how a 16-week cut in potential unemployment insurance (UI) duration in Missouri affected search behavior of UI recipients and the aggregate labor market. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD), we estimate marginal effects of maximum duration on UI and nonemployment spells of 0.45 and 0.25, respectively. We simulate the unemployment rate implied by the RDD estimates assuming no market-level externalities. The implied response closely approximates the…

利用广义随机系数刻画需求中的未观测偏好异质性AI 解读

We prove a new identification theorem showing nonparametric identification of the joint distribution of random coefficients in general nonlinear and additive models. This differs from existing random coefficients models by not imposing a linear index structure for the regressors. We then model unobserved preference heterogeneity in consumer demand as utility functions with random Barten scales. These Barten scales appear as random coefficients in nonlinear demand equations.…

使用离散工具变量超越局部平均处理效应AI 解读

We show how a discrete instrument can be used to identify the marginal treatment effects under a functional structure that allows for treatment heterogeneity among individuals with the same observed characteristics and self-selection based on the unobserved gain from treatment. Guided by this identification result, we perform a marginal treatment effect analysis of the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Our estimates reveal that the family size effects…

Does access to credit explain the gap in schooling attainment between children from richer and poorer families? I present new evidence on this important question based on the causal effects of two college loan programs in Chile that are available to students scoring above a threshold on the national college admission test, enabling a regression discontinuity design. I find that credit access leads to a 100 percent increase in immediate college enrollment and a 50 percent…

使用回归不连续设计评估GED证书的劳动力市场回报AI 解读

We evaluate returns to General Educational Development (GED) certification for high school dropouts using state administrative data. We apply a fuzzy regression discontinuity method to account for test takers retaking the test. For women we find that GED certification has no statistically significant effect on either employment or earnings. For men we find a significant increase in earnings in the second year after taking the test but no impact in subsequent years. GED…

消费中的双侧幂律及其对欧拉方程检验的影响AI 解读

We provide evidence suggesting that the cross-sectional distributions of US consumption and its growth rate obey the power law in both the upper and lower tails, with exponents approximately equal to four. Consequently, high-order moments are unlikely to exist, and the generalized method of moments estimation of Euler equations that employs cross-sectional moments may be inconsistent. Through bootstrap studies, we find that the power law appears to generate spurious…