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格兰杰因果、外生性、协整与经济政策分析AI 解读

Policy analysis had long been a main interest of Clive Granger’s. Here, we present a framework for economic policy analysis that provides a novel integration of several fundamental concepts at the heart of Granger’s contributions to time-series analysis. We work with a dynamic structural system analyzed by White and Lu (2010) with well defined causal meaning; under suitable conditional exogeneity restrictions, Granger causality coincides with this structural notion. The…

利用大型数据集估计经济周期转折点AI 解读

Dating business cycles entails ascertaining economy-wide turning points. Broadly speaking, there are two approaches in the literature. The first approach, which dates to Burns and Mitchell (1946), is to identify turning points individually in a large number of series, then to look for a common date that could be called an aggregate turning point. The second approach, which has been the focus of more recent academic and applied work, is to look for turning points in a few, or…

有界时间序列的单位根检验AI 解读

Many key economic and financial series are bounded either by construction or through policy controls. Conventional unit root tests are potentially unreliable in the presence of bounds, since they tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, even asymptotically. So far, very little work has been undertaken to develop unit root tests which can be applied to bounded time series. In this paper we address this gap in the literature by proposing unit root tests which…

利用无关工具变量最优估计协整系统AI 解读

It has been known since Phillips and Hansen (1990) that cointegrated systems can be consistently estimated using stochastic trend instruments that are independent of the system variables. A similar phenomenon occurs with deterministically trending instruments. The present work shows that such “irrelevant” deterministic trend instruments may be systematically used to produce asymptotically efficient estimates of a cointegrated system. The approach is convenient in practice,…

经验似然统计函数研究AI 解读

We consider the empirical likelihood method for estimation of distribution and quantile functions where side information is incorporated through moment conditions. We systematically study the asymptotic properties of the estimators, such as the uniform strong laws of large numbers and weak convergence over classes of functions. Two Monte Carlo examples are also given to illustrate the practical utility of the method.

大型动态面板中的聚合AI 解读

This paper investigates the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is derived and used (i) to establish conditions under which Granger’s (1980) conjecture regarding the long memory properties of aggregate variables from ‘a very large scale dynamic,…

基于高频数据的似然扩散模型选择：渐近分析AI 解读

We provide a new asymptotic analysis of model selection procedure that compares likelihoods of two candidate diffusion models. Our asymptotic analysis relies on two dimensional asymptotic expansions with shrinking sampling interval Δ and increasing sampling span T, and clarifies the different roles of drift and diffusion functions in the selection of diffusion models. In particular, we show that the model with superior diffusion function specification is always preferred to…

贝叶斯假设检验的一种新方法AI 解读

In this paper a new Bayesian approach is proposed to test a point null hypothesis based on the deviance in a decision-theoretical framework. The proposed test statistic may be regarded as the Bayesian version of the likelihood ratio test and appeals in practical applications with three desirable properties. First, it is immune to Jeffreys’ concern about the use of improper priors. Second, it avoids Jeffreys–Lindley’s paradox, Third, it is easy to compute and its threshold…

利用数据降维方法预测金融与宏观变量：新的实证证据AI 解读

In this paper, we empirically assess the predictive accuracy of a large group of models that are specified using principle components and other shrinkage techniques, including Bayesian model averaging and various bagging, boosting, least angle regression and related methods. Our results suggest that model averaging does not dominate other well designed prediction model specification methods, and that using “hybrid” combination factor/shrinkage methods often yields superior…

仿射期限结构模型的可检验含义AI 解读

Affine term structure models have been used to address a wide range of questions in macroeconomics and finance. This paper investigates a number of their testable implications which have not previously been explored. We show that the assumption that certain specified yields are priced without error is testable, and find that the implied measurement or specification error exhibits serial correlation in all of the possible formulations investigated here. We further find that…

随机过程的可加和性：非线性过程单整概念的推广AI 解读

The order of integration is valid to characterize linear processes; but it is not appropriate for non-linear worlds. We propose the concept of summability (a re-scaled partial sum of the process being Op(1)) to handle non-linearities. The paper shows that this new concept, S(δ): (i) generalizes I(δ); (ii) measures the degree of persistence as well as of the evolution of the variance; (iii) controls the balancedness of non-linear relationships; (iv) opens the door to the…

不完全信息引致的动态关系聚合AI 解读

We consider the aggregation of heterogeneous dynamic equations across a large population, as introduced by Granger (1980), where the dynamics arise because agents face a signal extraction problem caused by incomplete information. This weakens the independence assumptions used previously in the aggregation literature. We show that, under plausible assumptions, the differenced cross-section aggregate shows long term persistence even though every individual micro-series follows…

数据线性变换下共同趋势的渐近不变性AI 解读

It is well known that if Xt is a nonstationary process and Yt is a linear function of Xt, then cointegration of Yt implies cointegration of Xt. We want to find an analogous result for common trends if Xt is generated by a finite order VAR with i.i.d. (0,Ωx) errors εxt. We first show that Yt has an infinite order VAR representation in terms of its white noise prediction errors, εyt, which are a linear process in εxt, the prediction error for Xt. We then apply this result to…

基于频域回归的季节单位根检验AI 解读

This paper develops univariate seasonal unit root tests based on spectral regression estimators. An advantage of the frequency domain approach is that it enables serial correlation to be treated non-parametrically. We demonstrate that our proposed statistics have pivotal limiting distributions under both the null and near seasonally integrated alternatives when we allow for weak dependence in the driving shocks. This is in contrast to the popular seasonal unit root tests of,…

误设长期记忆模型的估计AI 解读

We consider time series that, possibly after integer differencing or integrating or other detrending, are covariance stationary with spectral density that is regularly varying near zero frequency, and unspecified elsewhere. This semiparametric framework includes series with short, long and negative memory. We consider the consistency of the popular log-periodogram memory estimate that, conventionally but wrongly, assumes the spectral density obeys a pure power law. The…

面对结构突变的设定不足方程中的模型选择AI 解读

When a model under-specifies the data generation process, model selection can improve over estimating a prior specification, especially if location shifts occur. Impulse-indicator saturation (IIS) can ‘correct’ non-constant intercepts induced by location shifts in omitted variables, which leave slope parameters unaltered even when correlated with included variables. Location shifts in included variables induce changes in estimated slopes when there are correlated omitted…

GMM 估计中误设稳健自助法的渐近精化AI 解读

I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals based on GMM estimators even when the model is misspecified. In addition, my bootstrap does not require recentering the moment function, which has been considered as critical for GMM. Regardless of model misspecification, the proposed bootstrap achieves the same sharp magnitude of refinements as the conventional bootstrap methods which establish asymptotic…

处理效应模型中分布函数与分位数函数的估计和推断AI 解读

We propose inverse probability weighted estimators for the distribution functions of the potential outcomes under the unconfoundedness assumption and apply the inverse mapping to obtain the quantile functions. We show that these estimators converge weakly to zero mean Gaussian processes. A simulation method is proposed to approximate these limiting processes. Based on these results, we construct tests for stochastic dominance relations between the potential outcomes.…

参数框架下的模型等价性检验AI 解读

In empirical research, one commonly aims to obtain evidence in favor of restrictions on parameters, appearing as an economic hypothesis, a consequence of economic theory, or an econometric modeling assumption. I propose a new theoretical framework based on the Kullback–Leibler information to assess the approximate validity of multivariate restrictions in parametric models. I construct tests that are locally asymptotically maximin and locally asymptotically uniformly most…

线性分位数模型的设定分析AI 解读

This paper introduces a nonparametric test for the correct specification of a linear conditional quantile function over a continuum of quantile levels. These tests may be applied to assess the validity of post-estimation inferences regarding the effect of conditioning variables on the distribution of outcomes. We show that the use of an orthogonal projection on the tangent space of nuisance parameters at each quantile index both improves power and facilitates the simulation…

面板数据模型中个体效应与时间效应的矩检验AI 解读

This paper proposes two Hausman-type tests respectively for individual and time effects in a two-way error component regression model by comparing estimators of the variance of the idiosyncratic error at different robust levels. They are both robust to the presence of the other effect, and the test for the individual effect has a larger asymptotic power than the corresponding ANOVA F test when the effects are correlated with covariates. Tests jointly for both effects are…

用狄利克雷过程混合估计半参数非对称随机波动率模型AI 解读

We extend the asymmetric, stochastic, volatility model by modeling the return-volatility distribution nonparametrically. The novelty is modeling this distribution with an infinite mixture of Normals, where the mixture unknowns have a Dirichlet process prior. Cumulative Bayes factors show our semiparametric model accurately forecasting market returns. During tranquil markets, expected volatility rises (declines, then rises as the shock increases) when the market shock is…

针对非线性备择的线性动态面板模型检验AI 解读

The most popular econometric models in the panel data literature are the class of linear panel data models with unobserved individual- and/or time-specific effects. The consistency of parameter estimators and the validity of their economic interpretations as marginal effects depend crucially on the correct functional form specification of the linear panel data model. In this paper, a new class of residual-based tests is proposed for checking the validity of dynamic panel…

马尔可夫转换与变点 GARCH 模型的边际似然AI 解读

GARCH volatility models with fixed parameters are too restrictive for long time series due to breaks in the volatility process. Flexible alternatives are Markov-switching GARCH and change-point GARCH models. They require estimation by MCMC methods due to the path dependence problem. An unsolved issue is the computation of their marginal likelihood, which is essential for determining the number of regimes or change-points. We solve the problem by using particle MCMC, a…