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非平稳面板的非参数秩检验AI 解读

We develop a set of nonparametric rank tests for non-stationary panels based on multivariate variance ratios which use untruncated kernels. As such, the tests do not require the choice of tuning parameters associated with bandwidth or lag length and also do not require choices with respect to numbers of common factors. The tests allow for unrestricted cross-sectional dependence and dynamic heterogeneity among the units of the panel, provided simply that a joint functional…

横截面均值与主成分方法的比较AI 解读

In spite of the increased use of factor-augmented regressions in recent years, little is known regarding the relative merits of the two main approaches to estimation and inference, namely, the cross-sectional average and principal component estimators. By providing a formal comparison of the approaches, the current paper fills this gap in the literature.

非经典测量误差下非参数模型的闭式估计AI 解读

This paper proposes closed-form estimators for nonparametric regressions using two measurements with non-classical errors. One (administrative) measurement has location-/scale-normalized errors, but the other (survey) measurement has endogenous errors with arbitrary location and scale. For this setting of data combination, we derive closed-form identification of nonparametric regressions, and practical closed-form estimators that perform well with small samples. Applying…

透过镜面：借助简单均衡进行间接推断AI 解读

This paper develops an indirect inference (Gourieroux et al., 1993; Smith, 1993) estimation method for a large class of dynamic equilibria. Our approach consists of constructing econometrically tractable auxiliary equilibria, obtained by simplifying the economic primitives of the structural equilibrium model, via which estimation can proceed. We use this approach to develop an accurate estimator for the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron (2004). We demonstrate the…

无限维因子空间动态因子模型的单边表示AI 解读

Factor model methods recently have become extremely popular in the theory and practice of large panels of time series data. Those methods rely on various factor models which all are particular cases of the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) introduced in Forniet al. (2000). That paper, however, rests on Brillinger’s dynamic principal components. The corresponding estimators are two-sided filters whose performance at the end of the observation period or for forecasting…

异方差下的刀切工具变量估计AI 解读

We present a new jackknife estimator for instrumental variable inference with unknown heteroskedasticity. It weighs observations such that many-instruments consistency is guaranteed while the signal component in the data is maintained. We show that this results in a smaller signal component in the many instruments asymptotic variance when compared to estimators that neglect a part of the signal to achieve consistency. Both many strong instruments and many weak instruments…

AR–GARCH 类模型的残差秩设定检验AI 解读

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution for a number of rank-based and classical residual specification tests in AR–GARCH type models. We consider tests for the null hypotheses of no linear and quadratic serial residual autocorrelation, residual symmetry, and no structural breaks. We also apply our method to backtesting Value-at-Risk. For these tests we show that, generally, no size correction is needed in the asymptotic test distribution when applied to AR–GARCH…

递归去趋势对面板单位根检验的影响AI 解读

This paper analyzes the properties of panel unit root tests based on recursively detrended data. The analysis is conducted while allowing for a (potentially) non-linear trend function, which represents a more general consideration than the current state of affairs with (at most) a linear trend. A new test statistic is proposed whose asymptotic behavior under the unit root null hypothesis, and the simplifying assumptions of a polynomial trend and iid errors are shown to be…

PANIC面板单位根检验的功效AI 解读

The current paper considers the asymptotic local power of second-generation panel unit root tests that are robust to the presence of cross-section dependence in the form of common factors. As a basis for our analysis, we take the PANIC approach of Bai and Ng (2004, 2010), which is one of the single most popular and general second-generation approaches around.

非参数预测回归AI 解读

A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The limit distribution of these predictive tests is nuisance parameter free and holds for a wide range of predictors including stationary as well as non-stationary fractional and near unit root processes. Asymptotic theory and simulations show that…

无限阶交叉验证局部多项式回归AI 解读

Many practical problems require nonparametric estimates of regression functions, and local polynomial regression has emerged as a leading approach. In applied settings practitioners often adopt either the local constant or local linear variants, or choose the order of the local polynomial to be slightly greater than the order of the maximum derivative estimate required. But such ad hoc determination of the polynomial order may not be optimal in general, while the joint…

空间误差动态面板模型的准极大似然估计AI 解读

We propose quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of dynamic panel models with spatial errors when the cross-sectional dimension n is large and the time dimension T is fixed. We consider both the random effects and fixed effects models, and prove consistency and derive the limiting distributions of the QML estimators under different assumptions on the initial observations. We propose a residual-based bootstrap method for estimating the standard errors of the QML…

矩不等式定义的部分识别模型设定检验AI 解读

This paper studies the problem of specification testing in partially identified models defined by moment (in)equalities. This problem has not been directly addressed in the literature, although several papers have suggested a test based on checking whether confidence sets for the parameters of interest are empty or not, referred to as Test BP. We propose two new specification tests, denoted Test RS and Test RC, that achieve uniform asymptotic size control and dominate Test…

非平稳时间序列的非线性回归AI 解读

This paper develops asymptotic theory for a nonlinear parametric cointegrating regression model. We establish a general framework for weak consistency that is easy to apply for various nonstationary time series, including partial sums of linear processes and Harris recurrent Markov chains. We provide limit distributions for nonlinear least square estimators, extending the previous works. We also introduce endogeneity to the model by allowing the error to be serially…

含内生解释变量的平滑结构变化建模与检验AI 解读

Modeling and detecting parameter stability of econometric models is a long standing problem. Most existing estimation and testing methods are designed for models without endogeneity. Little attention has been paid to models with endogeneous regressors, which may arise in many scenarios in economics. In this paper, we first consider a time-varying coefficient time series model with potential time-varying endogeneity. A local linear two stage least squared estimation is…

弱依赖数据下高维矩约束的广义经验似然AI 解读

This paper considers the maximum generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimation and inference on parameters identified by high dimensional moment restrictions with weakly dependent data when the dimensions of the moment restrictions and the parameters diverge along with the sample size. The consistency with rates and the asymptotic normality of the GEL estimator are obtained by properly restricting the growth rates of the dimensions of the parameters and the moment…

多市场差异化产品需求模型的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper develops asymptotic theory for differentiated product demand models with a large number of markets T. It takes into account that the predicted market shares are approximated by Monte Carlo integration with R draws and that the observed market shares are approximated from a sample of N consumers. The estimated parameters are T consistent and asymptotically normal as long as R and N grow fast enough relative to T. Both approximations yield additional bias and…

非经典测量误差下条件矩模型的半参数估计AI 解读

This paper develops a framework for the analysis of semiparametric conditional moment models with endogenous and mismeasured causes, which is of empirical importance. We show that one set of valid instruments is sufficient to control for both endogeneity and measurement errors of the causes of interest, which has been observed in linear parametric models. Two-step consistent estimators of the parameters of interest are proposed. We also show that the proposed estimators are…

条件分位数过程的非参数估计与推断AI 解读

This paper presents estimation methods and asymptotic theory for the analysis of a nonparametrically specified conditional quantile process. Two estimators based on local linear regressions are proposed. The first estimator applies simple inequality constraints while the second uses rearrangement to maintain quantile monotonicity. The bandwidth parameter is allowed to vary across quantiles to adapt to data sparsity. For inference, the paper first establishes a uniform…

含可张成或不可张成随机波动率的仿射期限结构模型估计AI 解读

We develop new procedures for maximum likelihood estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility. Our approach uses linear regression to reduce the dimension of the numerical optimization problem yet it produces the same estimator as maximizing the likelihood. It improves the numerical behavior of estimation by eliminating parameters from the objective function that cause problems for conventional methods. We find that spanned…

基于固定平滑渐近与埃奇沃思展开的分位数推断改进AI 解读

To estimate a sample quantile’s variance, the quantile spacing method involves smoothing parameter m. When m,n→∞, the corresponding Studentized test statistic is asymptotically N(0,1). Holding m fixed instead, the asymptotic distribution contains the Edgeworth expansion term capturing the variance of the quantile spacing. Consequently, the fixed-m distribution is more accurate than the standard normal under both asymptotic frameworks. A testing-optimal m is proposed to…

二元结果半参数样本选择模型的边际效应估计AI 解读

This paper addresses the estimation of a semiparametric sample selection index model where both the selection rule and the outcome variable are binary. Since the marginal effects are often of primary interest and are difficult to recover in a semiparametric setting, we focus on developing an estimator for the marginal effects. This marginal effect estimator uses only observations where the selection probability is above a certain threshold. A key innovation is that this high…

不同收入与选择过程下匹配和双重差分的偏差分析AI 解读

Matching and Difference in Difference (DID) are two widespread methods that use pre-treatment outcomes to correct for selection bias. I detail the sources of bias of both estimators in a model of earnings dynamics and entry into a Job Training Program (JTP) and I assess their performances using Monte Carlo simulations of the model calibrated with realistic parameter values. I find that Matching generally underestimates the average causal effect of the program and gets closer…

基于自助法临界值的空间依赖拉格朗日乘数检验AI 解读

To test the existence of spatial dependence in an econometric model, a convenient test is the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test. However, evidence shows that, in finite samples, the LM test referring to asymptotic critical values may suffer from the problems of size distortion and low power, which become worse with a denser spatial weight matrix. In this paper, residual-based bootstrap methods are introduced for asymptotically refined approximations to the finite sample critical…