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因子增广回归预测：频率学派模型平均方法AI 解读

This paper considers forecast combination with factor-augmented regression. In this framework, a large number of forecasting models are available, varying by the choice of factors and the number of lags. We investigate forecast combination across models using weights that minimize the Mallows and the leave-h-out cross validation criteria. The unobserved factor regressors are estimated by principle components of a large panel with N predictors over T periods. With these…

多工具变量下的正则化有限信息最大似然估计AI 解读

The use of many moment conditions improves the asymptotic efficiency of the instrumental variables estimators. However, in finite samples, the inclusion of an excessive number of moments increases the bias. To solve this problem, we propose regularized versions of the limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) based on three different regularizations: Tikhonov, Landweber–Fridman, and principal components. Our estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal under…

函数型线性模型中的工具变量估计AI 解读

In an increasing number of empirical studies, the dimensionality measured e.g. as the size of the parameter space of interest, can be very large. Two instances of large dimensional models are the linear regression with a large number of covariates and the estimation of a regression function with many instrumental variables. An appropriate setting to analyze high dimensional problems is provided by a functional linear model, in which the covariates belong to Hilbert spaces.…

高维向量自回归的 oracle 不等式AI 解读

This paper establishes non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the prediction error and estimation accuracy of the LASSO in stationary vector autoregressive models. These inequalities are used to establish consistency of the LASSO even when the number of parameters is of a much larger order of magnitude than the sample size. We also state conditions under which no relevant variables are excluded.

高维 ALASSO 残差经验过程及其函数型 oracle 性质AI 解读

This paper considers post variable-selection inference in a high dimensional penalized regression model based on the ALASSO method of Zou (2006). It is shown that under suitable sparsity conditions, the residual empirical process based on the ALASSO provides valid inference methodology in very high dimensional regression problems where conventional methods fail. It is also shown that the ALASSO based residual empirical process satisfies a functional oracle property, i.e., in…

最小二乘级数估计的新渐近理论：逐点与一致结果AI 解读

In econometric applications it is common that the exact form of a conditional expectation is unknown and having flexible functional forms can lead to improvements over a pre-specified functional form, especially if they nest some successful parametric economically-motivated forms. Series method offers exactly that by approximating the unknown function based on k basis functions, where k is allowed to grow with the sample size n to balance the trade off between variance and…

条件矩不等式模型中的渐近精确推断AI 解读

This paper derives the rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution for a class of Kolmogorov–Smirnov style test statistics for conditional moment inequality models for parameters on the boundary of the identified set under general conditions. Using these results, I propose tests that are more powerful than existing approaches for choosing critical values for this test statistic. I quantify the power improvement by showing that the new tests can detect alternatives that…

因变量非线性变换的空间自回归模型AI 解读

This paper develops a nonlinear spatial autoregressive model. Of particular interest is a structural interaction model for share data. We consider possible instrumental variable (IV) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for this model, and analyze asymptotic properties of the IV and MLE based on the notion of spatial near-epoch dependence. We also design a statistical test to compare the nonlinear transformation against alternatives. Monte Carlo experiments are designed…

基于回归的协整系统分析AI 解读

Two estimation procedures dominate the cointegration literature: Johansen’s maximum likelihood inference on vector autoregressive error correction models and estimation of Phillips’ triangular forms. This latter methodology is essentially semiparametric, focusing on estimating long run parameters by means of cointegrating regressions. However, it is less used in practice than Johansen’s approach, since its implementation requires prior knowledge of features such as the…

参数数量递增的高阶空间自回归模型推断AI 解读

This paper develops consistency and asymptotic normality of parameter estimates for a higher-order spatial autoregressive model whose order, and number of regressors, are allowed to approach infinity slowly with sample size. Both least squares and instrumental variables estimates are examined, and the permissible rate of growth of the dimension of the parameter space relative to sample size is studied. Besides allowing the number of parameters to increase with the data, this…

广义自协方差函数AI 解读

The generalised autocovariance function is defined for a stationary stochastic process as the inverse Fourier transform of the power transformation of the spectral density function. Depending on the value of the transformation parameter, this function nests the inverse and the traditional autocovariance functions. A frequency domain non-parametric estimator based on the power transformation of the pooled periodogram is considered and its asymptotic distribution is derived.…

交互固定效应面板模型的设定检验AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a consistent nonparametric test for linearity in a large dimensional panel data model with interactive fixed effects. Both lagged dependent variables and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form are allowed in the model. We estimate the model under the null hypothesis of linearity to obtain the restricted residuals which are then used to construct the test statistic. We show that after being appropriately centered and standardized, the test…

非线性估计量偏差与方差三阶修正的一般方法AI 解读

Motivated by a recent study of Bao and Ullah (2007a) on finite sample properties of MLE in the pure SAR (spatial autoregressive) model, a general method for third-order bias and variance corrections on a nonlinear estimator is proposed based on stochastic expansion and bootstrap. Working with concentrated estimating equation simplifies greatly the high-order expansions for bias and variance; a simple bootstrap procedure overcomes a major difficulty in analytically evaluating…

存在删失与内生性时的分位数回归AI 解读

In this paper we develop a new censored quantile instrumental variable (CQIV) estimator and describe its properties and computation. The CQIV estimator combines Powell (1986) censored quantile regression (CQR) to deal with censoring, with a control variable approach to incorporate endogenous regressors. The CQIV estimator is obtained in two stages that are nonadditive in the unobservables. The first stage estimates a nonadditive model with infinite dimensional parameters for…

嵌套预测模型比较：检验预测精度相等的新方法AI 解读

We develop methods for testing whether, in a finite sample, forecasts from nested models are equally accurate. Most prior work has focused on a null of equal accuracy in population — basically, whether the additional coefficients of the larger model are zero. Our asymptotic approximation instead treats the coefficients as non-zero but small, such that, in a finite sample, forecasts from the small and large models are expected to be equally accurate. We derive the limiting…

最小二乘模型平均估计量的分布理论AI 解读

This paper derives the limiting distributions of least squares averaging estimators for linear regression models in a local asymptotic framework. We show that the averaging estimators with fixed weights are asymptotically normal and then develop a plug-in averaging estimator that minimizes the sample analog of the asymptotic mean squared error. We investigate the focused information criterion (Claeskens and Hjort, 2003), the plug-in averaging estimator, the Mallows model…

股票风险溢价随时间变化的可能性：股息价格比回归的证据AI 解读

We examine the evidence on excess stock return predictability in a Bayesian setting in which the investor faces uncertainty about both the existence and strength of predictability. When we apply our methods to the dividend-price ratio, we find that even investors who are quite skeptical about the existence of predictability sharply modify their views in favor of predictability when confronted by the historical time series of returns and predictor variables. Correctly taking…

公司层面的资产定价异象AI 解读

We introduce a hierarchical Bayes approach to model conditional firm-level alphas as a function of firm characteristics. Our empirical framework is motivated by growing concerns in the literature regarding the reliability of inferences from portfolio-based methods. In our initial tests, we confirm the existence of several CAPM anomalies at the firm level. Prominent multifactor models deliver only a modest improvement, however, as they often resolve only those anomalies which…

回归不连续设计的经验似然推断AI 解读

This paper proposes empirical likelihood based inference methods for causal effects identified from regression discontinuity designs. We consider both the sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs and treat the regression functions as nonparametric. The proposed inference procedures do not require asymptotic variance estimation and the confidence sets have natural shapes, unlike the conventional Wald-type method. These features are illustrated by simulations and an…

具有非参数异方差的贝叶斯回归AI 解读

This paper studies large sample properties of a semiparametric Bayesian approach to inference in a linear regression model. The approach is to model the distribution of the regression error term by a normal distribution with the variance that is a flexible function of covariates. The main result of the paper is a semiparametric Bernstein–von Mises theorem under misspecification: even when the distribution of the regression error term is not normal, the posterior distribution…

非参数与半参数固定效应面板模型的渐近理论AI 解读

In this paper, we investigate the problem of estimating nonparametric and semiparametric panel data models with fixed effects. We focus on establishing the asymptotic results for estimators using smooth backfitting methods. We consider two estimators for the smooth unknown function in nonparametric panel regressions. One is a local linear estimator constructed similar as the one in Mammen et al. (2009) which was proposed for the additive nonparametric panel model. The other…

分数单整固定效应面板模型的有效推断AI 解读

A dynamic panel data model is considered that contains possibly stochastic individual components and a common stochastic time trend that allows for stationary and nonstationary long memory and general parametric short memory. We propose four different ways of coping with the individual effects so as to estimate the parameters. Like models with autoregressive dynamics, ours nests I(1) behaviour, but unlike the nonstandard asymptotics in the autoregressive case, estimates of…

摘要暂缺

具有因子残差的面板模型工具变量估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a new instrumental variables approach for consistent and asymptotically efficient estimation of panel data models with weakly exogenous or endogenous regressors and residuals generated by a multi-factor error structure. In this case, the standard dynamic panel estimators fail to provide consistent estimates of the parameters. The novelty of our approach is that we introduce new parameters to represent the unobserved covariances between the instruments and…