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单位根与协整的综合型检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a new portmanteau-type statistic by combining several lags of the sample autocorrelations to test for the presence of a unit-root of an autoregressive model. The proposed method is nonparametric in nature, which is model free and easy to implement. It avoids modeling the fitted residuals and does not require estimation of nuisance parameters, as commonly done in the augmented Dickey–Fuller or Phillips–Perron procedure. Asymptotic properties of the test…

用自回归条件Fréchet模型刻画极大值AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel dynamic generalized extreme value (GEV) framework for modeling the time-varying behavior of maxima in financial time series. Specifically, an autoregressive conditional Fréchet (AcF) model is proposed in which the maxima are modeled by a Fréchet distribution with time-varying scale parameter (volatility) and shape parameter (tail index) conditioned on past information. The AcF provides a direct and accurate modeling of the time-varying behavior…

真实参数接近或位于边界时的子向量推断AI 解读

Extremum estimators are not asymptotically normally distributed when the estimator satisfies the restrictions on the parameter space – such as the non-negativity of a variance parameter – andthe true parameter vector is near or at the boundary. This possible lack of asymptotic normality makes it difficult to construct tests for testing subvector hypotheses that control asymptotic size in a uniform sense and have good local asymptotic power irrespective of whether the true…

非线性协整回归的模型检验AI 解读

Using the marked empirical processes, this paper develops a test of parametric specification in a nonlinear cointegrating regression model. Unlike the kernel-smoothed U-statistic considered in Gao et al. (2009) and Wang and Phillips (2012), our new test statistic avoids the use of bandwidth, which has some advantages for practitioners. Simulations and a real data example show that our new test has a good finite sample performance. Other contributions of this paper are to…

基于MCMC输出的模型设定检验AI 解读

Two test statistics are proposed to determine model specification after a model is estimated by an MCMC method. The first test is the MCMC version of IOSA test and its asymptotic null distribution is normal. The second test is motivated from the power enhancement technique of Fan et al. (2015). It combines a component (J1) that tests a null point hypothesis in an expanded model and a power enhancement component (J0) obtained from the first test. It is shown that J0 converges…

含时间变量及平稳与非平稳回归量的加性非参数模型AI 解读

This paper considers nonparametric additive models that have a deterministic time trend and both stationary and integrated variables as components. The diverse nature of the regressors caters for applications in a variety of settings. In addition, we extend the analysis to allow the stationary regressor to be instead locally stationary, and we allow the models to include a linear form of the integrated variable. Heteroscedasticity is allowed for in all models. We propose an…

高维协变量下的内生性检验AI 解读

Modern, high dimensional data has renewed investigation on instrumental variables (IV) analysis, primarily focusing on estimation of effects of endogenous variables and putting little attention towards specification tests. This paper studies in high dimensions the Durbin–Wu–Hausman (DWH) test, a popular specification test for endogeneity in IV regression. We show, surprisingly, that the DWH test maintains its size in high dimensions, but at an expense of power. We propose a…

条件同方差下子集Anderson–Rubin检验的Bootstrap不一致与Bonferroni尺寸校正AI 解读

We focus on the linear instrumental variable model with two endogenous regressors under conditional homoskedasticity, and study the subset Anderson and Rubin (1949, AR) test when the nuisance structural parameter, the unrestricted slope coefficient of endogenous regressor, may be weakly identified. Weak identification leads to nonstandard null limiting distributions, and alternative to the usual chi-squared critical value is needed. We first investigate the bootstrap…

考虑可靠性的已实现协方差建模与预测AI 解读

We propose a new framework for modeling and forecasting common financial risks based on (un)reliable realized covariance measures constructed from high-frequency intraday data. Our new approach explicitly incorporates the effect of measurement errors and time-varying attenuation biases into the covariance forecasts, by allowing the ex-ante predictions to respond more (less) aggressively to changes in the ex-post realized covariance measures when they are more (less)…

动态面板推断中的附带参数、初始条件与样本规模AI 解读

We use a quasi-likelihood function approach to clarify the role of initial values and the relative sample size of the cross-section dimension N and the time series dimension T on the asymptotic properties of estimators for dynamic panel data models with the presence of individual-specific effects. We show that a properly specified quasi-likelihood estimator (QMLE) that uses the Mundlak–Chamberlain approach to condition the unobserved effects and initial values on the…

网络生成依赖的稳健检验AI 解读

The paper introduces a robust testing procedure for network generated cross sectional dependence in the endogenous variables, exogenous variables and/or disturbances. Empirical researchers often face situations where they are unsure about how to model the proximity between cross sectional units in a network. The tests considered provide the empirical researcher an important degree of robustness in such situations. They generalize the Moran (1950) I test for dependence in…

误差分布未知时反卷积的一致置信带AI 解读

This paper develops a method to construct uniform confidence bands in deconvolution when the error distribution is unknown. Simulation studies demonstrate the performance of the multiplier bootstrap confidence band in the finite sample. We apply our method to the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Auction Data and draw confidence bands for the density of common values of mineral rights on oil and gas tracts. We also present an application of our main theoretical result…

线性双重自回归AI 解读

This paper proposes the linear double autoregression, a conditional heteroscedastic model with a conditional mean structure but compatible with the quantile regression. The existence of a strictly stationary solution is discussed, for which a necessary and sufficient condition is established. A doubly weighted quantile regression estimation procedure is introduced, where the first set of weights ensures the asymptotic normality of the estimator and the second set improves…

断点数量未知的大维因子模型估计AI 解读

In this paper we study the estimation of a large dimensional factor model when the factor loadings exhibit an unknown number of changes over time. We propose a novel three-step procedure to detect the breaks if any and then identify their locations. In the first step, we divide the whole time span into subintervals and fit a conventional factor model on each interval. In the second step, we apply the adaptive fused group Lasso to identify intervals containing a break. In the…

提高检验功效的随机单调性检验AI 解读

We develop improved statistical procedures for testing stochastic monotonicity. While existing tests use a fixed critical value to set the limiting rejection rate equal to nominal size at the least favorable case, we use a bootstrap procedure to raise the limiting rejection rate to nominal size over much of the null. This improves power against relevant local alternatives. To show the validity of our approach we draw on recent results on the directional differentiability of…

删失分位数回归模型的序贯估计AI 解读

In this paper we propose sequential censored quantile regression (SCQR) and sequential instrumental variables censored quantile regression estimators (SIVCQR). We effectively transform the difficult censored quantile regression and censored instrumental variables quantile regression problems into more standard QR and IVQR procedures, consequently, our approaches make the quantile regression techniques for censored data easily accessible to applied researchers. Simulation…

区间值时间序列的门限自回归模型AI 解读

Modeling and forecasting symbolic data, especially interval-valued time series (ITS) data, has received considerable attention in statistics and related fields. The core of available methods on ITS analysis is based on various applications of conventional linear modeling. However, few works have considered possible nonlinearities in ITS data. In this paper, we propose a new class of threshold autoregressive interval (TARI) models for ITS data. By matching the interval model…

具有交互效应的面板模型AI 解读

The multiplication of individual specific effects, ▪ and time-specific effects, ▪ provides a more general formulation than the traditionally used additive form to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in panel data modeling. It is also a useful approach for dimension reduction for modeling cross-section dependence. However, ▪ and ▪ are unobservable. We explore the implications for econometric modeling under various formulations of the interactive effects models and suggest a…

具有交互固定效应的随机系数 Logit 需求模型估计AI 解读

We extend the Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (BLP, 1995) random coefficients discrete-choice demand model, which underlies much recent empirical work in IO. We add interactive fixed effects in the form of a factor structure on the unobserved product characteristics. The interactive fixed effects can be arbitrarily correlated with the observed product characteristics (including price), which accommodate endogeneity and, at the same time, capture strong persistence in market…

半参数分位数面板模型及外商直接投资增长效应应用AI 解读

This paper estimates the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth by proposing a new semiparametric quantile panel data model with correlated random effects, in which some of the coefficients are allowed to depend on some smooth economic variables while other coefficients remain constant. A three-stage estimation procedure is proposed to estimate both constant and functional coefficients and their asymptotic properties are investigated. A simple and easily…

分位数相关随机系数面板数据模型AI 解读

We propose a generalization of the linear quantile regression model to accommodate possibilities afforded by panel data. Specifically, we extend the correlated random coefficients representation of linear quantile regression (e.g., Koenker, 2005; Section 2.6). We show that panel data allows the econometrician to (i) introduce dependence between the regressors and the random coefficients and (ii) weaken the assumption of comonotonicity across them (i.e., to enrich the…

条件对称性的非参数检验AI 解读

We propose omnibus tests for symmetry of the conditional distribution of a time series process about a nonparametric regression function. The test statistic is a weighted version of the integrated squared difference between the restricted and unrestricted estimators of the joint characteristic function of nonparametric residuals and explanatory variables, whose critical values are estimated with the assistance of a bootstrap technique. The test is sensitive to local…

数值 Delta 方法AI 解读

This paper provides a numerical derivative based Delta method that complements the recent work by Fang and Santos (2014) and also generalizes a previous insight by Song (2014). We show that for an appropriately chosen sequence of step sizes, the numerical derivative based Delta method provides consistent inference for functions of parameters that are only directionally differentiable. Additionally, it provides uniformly valid inference for certain convex and Lipschitz…

高维约束因子模型的准极大似然分析AI 解读

Factor models have been widely used in practice. However, an undesirable feature of a high dimensional factor model is that the model has too many parameters. An effective way to address this issue, proposed in a seminar work by Tsai and Tsay (2010) is to decompose the loadings matrix by a high-dimensional known matrix multiplying with a low-dimensional unknown matrix, which Tsai and Tsay (2010) name the constrained factor models. This paper investigates the estimation and…