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向量自回归中关于可观测变量的先验AI 解读

Standard practice in Bayesian VARs is to formulate priors on the autoregressive parameters, but economists and policy makers actually have priors about the behavior of observable variables. We show how to translate the prior on observables into a prior on parameters using strict probability theory principles, a posterior can then be formed with standard procedures. We state the inverse problem to be solved and we propose a numerical algorithm that works well in practical…

函数型 GARCH 模型的准似然方法及应用AI 解读

The increasing availability of high frequency data has initiated many new research areas in statistics. Functional data analysis (FDA) is one such innovative approach towards modelling time series data. In FDA, densely observed data are transformed into curves and then each (random) curve is considered as one data object. A natural, but still relatively unexplored, context for FDA methods is related to financial data, where high-frequency trading currently takes a…

误分类二元内生解释变量效应的识别AI 解读

This paper studies identification of the effect of a mis-classified, binary, endogenous regressor when a discrete-valued instrumental variable is available. We begin by showing that the only existing point identification result for this model is incorrect. We go on to derive the sharp identified set under mean independence assumptions for the instrument and measurement error. The resulting bounds are novel and informative, but fail to point identify the effect of interest.…

弱 σ 收敛：理论与应用AI 解读

The concept of relative convergence, which requires the ratio of two time series to converge to unity in the long run, explains convergent behavior when series share commonly divergent stochastic or deterministic trend components. Relative convergence of this type does not necessarily hold when series share common time decay patterns measured by evaporating rather than divergent trend behavior. To capture convergent behavior in panel data that do not involve stochastic or…

限价订单簿变量能否完全解释市场微观结构噪声的检验AI 解读

In this paper, we build tests for the presence of residual noise in a model where the market microstructure noise is a known parametric function of some variables from the limit order book. The tests compare two distinct quasi-maximum likelihood estimators of volatility, where the related model includes a residual noise in the market microstructure noise or not. The limit theory is investigated in a general nonparametric framework. In the presence of residual noise, we…

随机系数自回归模型中系数随机性的检验AI 解读

We propose a test to discern between an ordinary autoregressive model, and a random coefficient one. To this end, we develop a full-fledged estimation theory for the variances of the idiosyncratic innovation and of the random coefficient, based on a two-stage WLS approach. Our results hold irrespective of whether the series is stationary or nonstationary, and, as an immediate result, they afford the construction of a test for ”relevant” randomness. Further, building on these…

基于 Itô–Taylor 展开的多元扩散新型 delta 展开AI 解读

In this paper we develop a new delta expansion approach to deriving analytical approximation to the transition densities of multivariate diffusions using the Itô-Taylor expansion of the conditional expectation of the Dirac delta function. Our approach yields an explicit recursive formulas for the expansion coefficients and is universally applicable for a wide spectrum of models, particularly the time-inhomogeneous non-affine irreducible multivariate diffusions. We show that…

随机系数连续时间系统：极端样本路径行为检验AI 解读

This paper studies a continuous time dynamic system with a random persistence parameter. The exact discrete time representation is obtained and related to several discrete time random coefficient models currently in the literature. The model distinguishes various forms of unstable and explosive behavior according to specific regions of the parameter space that open up the potential for testing these forms of extreme behavior. A two-stage approach that employs realized…

不连续杠杆效应的估计：来自纳斯达克订单簿的证据AI 解读

An extensive empirical literature documents a generally negative relation, named the “leverage effect,” between asset returns and changes of volatility. It is more challenging to establish such a return–volatility relationship for jumps in high-frequency data. We propose new nonparametric methods to assess and test for a discontinuous leverage effect — i.e. a covariation between contemporaneous jumps in prices and volatility. The methods are robust to market microstructure…

大规模社交网络中的门户节点筛选AI 解读

Network autoregression model (NAM), as a powerful tool to study user social behaviors on large scale social networks, has drawn great attention in recent years. In this paper, we are interested in identifying the influential users (i.e., portal nodes) in a social network under the framework of NAM. Especially, we consider the autoregression model that allows to have a heterogeneous and sparse network effect coefficients. Therefore, the portal nodes take influential powers…

非同步高频金融数据的结构化波动率矩阵估计AI 解读

Several large volatility matrix estimation procedures have been recently developed for factor-based Itô processes whose integrated volatility matrix consists of low-rank and sparse matrices. Their performance depends on the accuracy of input volatility matrix estimators. When estimating co-volatilities based on high-frequency data, one of the crucial challenges is non-synchronization for illiquid assets, which makes their co-volatility estimators inaccurate. In this paper,…

随机议价模型识别的新结果AI 解读

We present new identification results for stochastic sequential bargaining models when the data only reports the time of agreement and the evolution of observable states. With no information on the stochastic surplus available for allocation or how it is allocated under agreement, we recover the latent surplus process, the distribution of unobservable states, and the equilibrium outcome in counterfactual contexts. The method we propose, which is constructive and original,…

含时变解释变量的持续期模型分位数回归AI 解读

Since the seminal work of Koenker and Bassett (1978), quantile regression has become a widely used tool in duration analysis. The existing literature, however, has focused on time-invariant regressors, even though time-varying regressors are common in practice. In this paper, we introduce a quantile regression framework with time-varying regressors and develop quantile regression estimators. Our estimators are motivated by Manski’s (1975, 1985) maximum score estimator and…

近似加权风险最小的无偏估计AI 解读

Consider a small-sample parametric estimation problem, such as the estimation of the coefficient in a Gaussian AR(1). We develop a numerical algorithm that determines an estimator that is nearly (mean or median) unbiased, and among all such estimators, comes close to minimizing a weighted average risk criterion. We also apply our generic approach to the median unbiased estimation of the degree of time variation in a Gaussian local-level model, and to a quantile unbiased…

基于留主体交叉验证的向量自回归模型平均AI 解读

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a useful tool for economic evaluation and prediction. This paper develops a leave-subject-out cross-validation model averaging (LsoMA) method to average predictions from VAR models. The approximate unbiasedness of LsoMA and its asymptotic optimality in terms of obtaining the lowest possible quadratic errors are established. The rate of the LsoMA based weights converging to the optimal weights minimizing the expected quadratic errors…

双变量Probit模型、极大似然、伪真参数与部分识别AI 解读

This paper examines the notion of “identification by functional form” for two equation triangular systems for binary endogenous variables by providing a bridge between the literature on the recursive bivariate probit model and that on partial identification. We evaluate the impact of functional form on the performance of (quasi) maximum likelihood estimators, and investigate the practical importance of available instruments in both cases of correct and incorrect…

利用信息丰富观测进行动态资产定价模型的贝叶斯估计AI 解读

In dynamic asset pricing models, when the model structure becomes complex and derivatives data are introduced in estimation, traditional MCMC methods converge slowly, are difficult to design efficient proposals for parameters, and have large computational cost. We propose a two-stage sequential Monte Carlo sampler based on common random numbers and a smooth particle filter. This method is robust to potential model misspecification and can deliver almost full-likelihood-based…

含未观测随机动态效应的非线性时间序列与面板模型的拉普拉斯变换识别AI 解读

We consider nonlinear parametric and semi-parametric models for time series and panel data including unobserved dynamic effects. These regression models have an affine specification with respect to lagged endogenous variables and unobserved dynamic effects. We derive conditional moment restrictions based on suitable Laplace transforms. We show how to deploy these nonlinear moment restrictions to identify the parameters of the affine regression model, and the parametric or…

空间自回归模型的广义经验似然估计与检验AI 解读

This paper considers the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimation and tests of high order spatial autoregressive (SAR) models by exploring an inherent martingale structure. The GEL estimator has the same asymptotic distribution as the generalized method of moments estimator explored with same moment conditions for estimation, but circumvents a first step estimation of the optimal weighting matrix with a preliminary estimator, and thus can be robust to unknown…

条件预测密度正确设定的替代检验AI 解读

We propose a new framework for evaluating predictive densities in an environment where the estimation error of the parameters used to construct the densities is preserved asymptotically under the null hypothesis. The tests offer a simple way to evaluate the correct specification of predictive densities, where both the model specification and its estimation technique are evaluated jointly. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good…

动态结构需求估计的高效固定点方法AI 解读

This paper develops a computationally efficient approach to the estimation of dynamic structural demand with product panel data. The conventional GMM approach relies on two nested fixed point (NFP) algorithms, each developed by Rust (1987) and Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995). We transform the GMM into a quasi-Bayesian (Laplace type) estimator and develop a new MCMC method that efficiently solves the fixed point problems. Our approach requires no stronger assumptions than…

高维因子模型中时变载荷的一致估计AI 解读

In this paper, we develop a two-step maximum likelihood estimator of time-varying loadings in high-dimensional factor models. We specify the loadings to evolve as stationary vector autoregressions (VAR) and show that consistent estimates of the loadings parameters can be obtained. In the first step, principal components are extracted from the data to form factor estimates. In the second step, the parameters of the loadings VARs are estimated as a set of linear regression…

工具变量不足时多内生变量三角模型的识别与估计AI 解读

We develop a novel identification method for a partially linear model with multiple endogenous variables of interest but a single instrumental variable, which could even be binary. We present an easy-to-implement consistent estimator for the parametric part. This estimator retains n-convergence rate and asymptotic normality even though we have a generated regressor in our setup. The nonparametric part of the model is also identified. We also outline how our identification…

高维向量误差修正模型的确定AI 解读

We provide a shrinkage type methodology which allows for simultaneous model selection and estimation of vector error correction models (VECM) when the dimension is large and can increase with sample size. Model determination is treated as a joint selection problem of cointegrating rank and autoregressive lags under respective practically valid sparsity assumptions. We show consistency of the selection mechanism by the resulting Lasso-VECM estimator under very general…