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自回归模型中脉冲响应推断的一致有效性AI 解读

Existing proofs of the asymptotic validity of conventional methods of impulse response inference based on higher-order autoregressions are pointwise only. In this paper, we establish the uniform asymptotic validity of conventional asymptotic and bootstrap inference about individual impulse responses and vectors of impulse responses when the horizon is fixed with respect to the sample size. For inference about vectors of impulse responses based on Wald test statistics to be…

对代理变量误差稳健的生产函数估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a new approach to the identification and estimation of production functions. It extends the literature on the structural estimation of production functions, which dates back to the seminal work of Olley and Pakes (1996), by relaxing the scalar-unobservable assumption about the proxy variables. The key additional assumption needed in the identification argument is the existence of two conditionally independent proxy variables. The proposed generalized…

连边形成指数模型的非参数识别AI 解读

We consider a dyadic link formation model with a homophily effect index and a degree heterogeneity index. We provide nonparametric identification results for the potentially nonparametric homophily effect function, the realizations of unobserved individual fixed effects and the unknown distribution of idiosyncratic shocks, up to normalization. We propose a novel form of scale normalization on an arbitrary interquantile range, which is not only theoretically general but also…

含滞后因变量的离散选择模型的非参数识别AI 解读

Variation in covariates can be used to nonparametrically identify a discrete choice model with a lagged dependent variable and discrete unobserved heterogeneity (Kasahara and Shimotsu, 2009; Browning and Carro, 2014). In some cases the number of support points of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution is restricted only by the number of points of support in the distribution of the covariates. This paper provides conditions under which these models can be identified with…

混合随机局部单位根模型AI 解读

Two approaches have dominated formulations designed to capture small departures from unit root autoregressions. The first involves deterministic departures that include local-to-unity (LUR) and mildly (or moderately) integrated (MI) specifications where departures shrink to zero as the sample size n→∞. The second approach allows for stochastic departures from unity, leading to stochastic unit root (STUR) specifications. This paper introduces a hybrid local stochastic unit…

从平稳到轻度非平稳变化的序贯监测AI 解读

We develop and study sequential testing procedures á la Chu et al. (1996) for on-line detection of changes in a time series from stationarity to mild forms of non-stationarity. The proposed tests are based on sequential CUSUM and KPSS-type detector processes, and are shown to provide consistent detection under a wide range of change point models, including changes in the parameters of ARMA and GARCH series from values within the model’s stationarity parameter region to…

含内生性的删失回归模型的半参数估计AI 解读

Censoring and endogeneity are common in empirical applications. However, the existing semiparametric estimation methods for the censored regression model with endogeneity under an independence restriction are associated with some drawbacks. In this paper we propose a new semiparametric estimator that overcomes these drawbacks. We derive conditional quantile moment conditions for all the conditional quantiles and propose a moment-based estimator. In particular, we construct…

无原地不变个体的时变非可分面板模型识别与估计AI 解读

This paper explores the identification and estimation of nonseparable panel data models. We show that the structural function is nonparametrically identified when it is strictly increasing in a scalar unobservable variable, the conditional distributions of unobservable variables do not change over time, and the joint support of explanatory variables satisfies some weak assumptions. To identify the target parameters, existing studies assume that the structural function does…

测量误差下的分布函数推断AI 解读

This paper is concerned with inference on the cumulative distribution function (cdf) FX∗ in the classical measurement error model X=X∗+ϵ. We consider the case where the density of the measurement error ϵ is unknown and estimated by repeated measurements, and show validity of a bootstrap approximation for the distribution of the deviation in the sup-norm between the deconvolution cdf estimator and FX∗. We allow the density of ϵ to be ordinary or super smooth. We also provide…

含零波动系数的增广双重自回归模型的非标准推断AI 解读

This paper considers an augmented double autoregressive (DAR) model, which allows null volatility coefficients to circumvent the over-parameterization problem in the DAR model. Since the volatility coefficients might be on the boundary, the statistical inference methods based on the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (GQMLE) become non-standard, and their asymptotics require the data to have a finite sixth moment, which narrows the applicable scope in studying…

基于重拟合交叉验证的超高维精度矩阵估计AI 解读

This paper develops a new estimation procedure for ultrahigh dimensional sparse precision matrix, the inverse of covariance matrix. Regularization methods have been proposed for sparse precision matrix estimation, but they may not perform well with ultrahigh dimensional data due to the spurious correlation. We propose a refitted cross validation (RCV) method for sparse precision matrix estimation based on its Cholesky decomposition, which does not require the Gaussian…

基于鞅变换的Copula拟合优度检验AI 解读

This paper proposes an asymptotically distribution-free test for copulas with dynamic marginal distributions, such as GARCH and ARMA processes. The test is based on the empirical copula process with parametrically estimated marginal distributions. By applying the Khmaladze (1982, 1988, 1993) martingale transformation method, the transformed empirical process converges to a standard Gaussian process, so the resulting test statistics are asymptotically distribution-free. Monte…

面板数据模型中个体效应与时间效应的判定AI 解读

In this paper we propose a jackknife method to determine individual and time effects in linear panel data models. We first show that when both the serial and cross-sectional correlations among the idiosyncratic error terms are weak, our jackknife method can pick up the correct model with probability approaching one (w.p.a.1). In the presence of moderate or strong degree of serial correlation, we modify our jackknife criterion function and show that the modified jackknife…

建模结构突变能否提高预测准确性？AI 解读

Mean square forecast error loss implies a bias–variance trade-off that suggests that structural breaks of small magnitude should be ignored. In this paper, we provide a test to determine whether modeling a structural break improves forecast accuracy. The test is near optimal even when the date of a local-to-zero break is not consistently estimable. The results extend to forecast combinations that weight the post-break sample and the full sample forecasts by our test…

高频局部分布推断：自助法方法AI 解读

We study inference for the local innovations of Itô semimartingales. Specifically, we construct a resampling procedure for the empirical CDF of high-frequency innovations that have been standardized using a nonparametric estimate of its stochastic scale (volatility) and truncated to rid the effect of “large” jumps. Our locally dependent wild bootstrap (LDWB) accommodate issues related to the stochastic scale and jumps as well as account for a special block-wise dependence…

低效率区域模式建模：贝叶斯地理加性面板随机前沿方法AI 解读

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach to inefficiency modelling that accounts for regional patterns of local performance. The model allows for a separated treatment of individual heterogeneity and determinants of inefficiency. Regional dependence structures and location-specific unobserved spatial heterogeneity are modelled via geoadditive predictors in the inefficiency term of the stochastic frontier model. Inference becomes feasible through Markov chain Monte Carlo…

多工具变量下的稳健估计AI 解读

Linear instrumental variables models are widely used in empirical work, but often associated with low estimator precision. This paper proposes an estimator that is robust to outliers and shows that the estimator is minimax optimal in a class of estimators that includes the limited maximum likelihood estimator (LIML). Intuitively, this optimal robust estimator combines LIML with Winsorization of the structural residuals and the Winsorization leads to improved precision under…

基于高频数据的高维最小方差组合估计AI 解读

This paper studies the estimation of high-dimensional minimum variance portfolio (MVP) based on the high frequency returns which can exhibit heteroscedasticity and possibly be contaminated by microstructure noise. Under certain sparsity assumptions on the precision matrix, we propose estimators of the MVP and prove that our portfolios asymptotically achieve the minimum variance in a sharp sense. In addition, we introduce consistent estimators of the minimum variance, which…

具有潜在分组结构的面板门槛回归AI 解读

In this paper, we consider the least squares estimation of a panel structure threshold regression (PSTR) model where both the slope coefficients and threshold parameters may exhibit latent group structures. We study the asymptotic properties of the estimators of the latent group structure and the slope and threshold coefficients. We show that we can estimate the latent group structure correctly with probability approaching 1 and the estimators of the slope and threshold…

厚尾向量误差修正模型的推断AI 解读

This paper first studies the full rank least squares estimator (FLSE) of the heavy-tailed vector error correction (VEC) models. It is shown that the rate of convergence of the FLSE related to the long-run parameters is n (sample size) and its limiting distribution is a stochastic integral in terms of two stable random processes when the tail index α∈(0,2). Furthermore, we show that the rate of convergence of the FLSE related to the short-term parameters is n1∕αL̃(n) and its…

维度增长下的秩估计量AI 解读

The family of rank estimators, including Han’s maximum rank correlation (Han, 1987) as a notable example, has been widely exploited in studying regression problems. For these estimators, although the linear index is introduced for alleviating the impact of dimensionality, the effect of large dimension on inference is rarely studied. This paper fills this gap via studying the statistical properties of a larger family of M-estimators, whose objective functions are formulated…

多方程中的测量误差：托宾 q 与企业投资、储蓄及债务AI 解读

We characterize the sharp identification regions for the coefficients in a system of linear equations that share an explanatory variable measured with classical error. We demonstrate the identification gain from analyzing the equations jointly. We derive the sharp identification regions under any configuration of three auxiliary assumptions. These restrict the “noise-to-signal” ratio, the coefficients of determination, and the signs of the correlations among the…

方差预期差异与市场摩擦AI 解读

This paper introduces a new model-free approach to measuring the expectation of market variance using VIX derivatives. This approach shows that VIX derivatives carry different information about future variance than S&P 500 (SPX) options, especially during the 2008 financial crisis. I find that the segmentation is associated with frictions such as funding illiquidity, market illiquidity, and asymmetric information. When they are segmented, VIX derivatives contribute more to…

对冲基金绩效的非参数评估AI 解读

We propose a new class of performance measures for Hedge Fund (HF) returns based on a family of empirically identifiable stochastic discount factors (SDFs). The SDF-based measures incorporate no-arbitrage pricing restrictions and naturally embed information about higher-order mixed moments between HF and benchmark factors returns. We provide a full asymptotic theory for our SDF estimators to test for the statistical significance of each fund’s performance and for the…