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由数学规划定义的估计量的统计推断AI 解读

We propose an inference procedure for a class of estimators defined as the solutions to linear and convex quadratic programming problems in which the coefficients in both the objective function and the constraints of the problem are estimated from data and hence involve sampling error. We argue that the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions that characterize the solutions to these programming problems can be treated as moment conditions; by doing so, we transform the problem of…

含不可观测异质性与多重均衡的动态博弈识别AI 解读

This paper provides sufficient conditions for nonparametrically identifying dynamic games with incomplete information, allowing for multiple equilibria and payoff-relevant unobservables. Our identification involves two steps. We first identify the equilibrium conditional choice probabilities and state transitions using the Markov property and four-period data. The first step of our identification relies on eigenvalue-eigenvector decomposition, and thus incurs the same issue…

第一价格密封拍卖中的风险厌恶检验AI 解读

We consider testing for risk aversion in first-price sealed-bid auctions with symmetric bidders and independent private values. We impose several restrictions on the parameter space, which are all implied by Guerre et al. (2009)’s exclusion restriction, and we articulate what restrictions are needed for our test to control the limiting size and to be pointwise consistent. Critical values can be obtained from the standard normal distribution. We also analyze local-power…

第一价格拍卖的分位数回归方法AI 解读

The paper proposes a quantile-regression inference framework for first-price auctions with symmetric risk-neutral bidders under the independent private-value paradigm. It is first shown that a private-value quantile regression generates a quantile regression for the bids. The private-value quantile regression can be easily estimated from the bid quantile regression and its derivative with respect to the quantile level. This also allows to test for various specification or…

具有单调控制函数的样本选择模型AI 解读

The celebrated Heckman selection model yields a selection correction function (control function) proportional to the inverse Mills ratio, which is monotone. This paper studies a sample selection model that does not impose parametric distributional assumptions on the latent error terms, while maintaining the monotonicity of the control function. We show that a positive (negative) dependence condition on the latent error terms is sufficient for the monotonicity of the control…

连续非经典测量误差下非参数单调回归模型的识别AI 解读

This paper provides sufficient conditions for identification of a nonparametric regression model with an unobserved continuous regressor subject to nonclassical measurement error. The measurement error may be directly correlated with the latent regressor in the model. Our identification strategy does not require the availability of additional data information, such as a secondary measurement, an instrumental variable, or an auxiliary sample. Our main assumptions for…

利用成对比较估计不可观测个体异质性AI 解读

We propose a new method for studying environments with unobserved individual heterogeneity. Based on model-implied pairwise inequalities, the method classifies individuals in the sample into groups defined by discrete unobserved heterogeneity with unknown support. We establish conditions under which the groups are identified and consistently estimated through our method. We show that the method performs well in finite samples through Monte Carlo simulation. We then apply the…

符号正则核的低秩逼近AI 解读

Parameterized integrals, q y = ∫ K x , y d P x , are common in economic applications. To optimize a parameterized integral, or to relate one such integral to others, it is helpful to reduce the rank of the kernel K while controlling approximation error. A bound on the uniform approximation error of K x , y ≈ ∑ i = 1 n f i x g i y also bounds the uniform approximation error of q y ≈ ∑ i = 1 n c i g i y = ∑ i = 1 n ∫ f i x d P x g i y over all y and all signed measures P whose…

面板数据模型中的反馈AI 解读

Much of the analysis of panel data has been based on an assumption of strict exogeneity. Distributions are specified for outcome variables conditional on a latent individual effect and conditional on observed predictor variables at all dates, with the future values of the predictor variables assumed to have no effect on the conditional distribution. The paper relaxes this assumption in order to allow for lagged dependent variables and, more generally, for feedback from…

平均线性回归函数的半参数有效估计AI 解读

Let Y be an outcome of interest, X a vector of treatment measures, and W a vector of pre-treatment control variables. Here X may include (combinations of) continuous, discrete, or non-mutually exclusive “treatments”. Consider the linear regression of Y onto X in a subpopulation homogeneous in W=w (formally a conditional linear predictor). Let b0w be the coefficient vector on X in this regression. We introduce a semiparametrically efficient estimate of the average β0=Eb0W.…

动态面板数据模型的稳健似然估计AI 解读

We develop likelihood-based estimators for autoregressive panel data models that are consistent in the presence of time series heteroskedasticity. Bias-corrected conditional score estimators, random effects maximum likelihood in levels and first differences, and estimators that impose mean stationarity are considered for general autoregressive models with individual effects. We investigate identification under unit roots, and show that random effects estimation in levels may…

错位采用情形下双重差分的设计型分析AI 解读

In this paper we study estimation of and inference for average treatment effects in a setting with panel data. We focus on the staggered adoption setting where units, e.g, individuals, firms, or states, adopt the policy or treatment of interest at a particular point in time, and then remain exposed to this treatment at all times afterwards. We take a design perspective where we investigate the properties of estimators and procedures given assumptions on the assignment…

谁获益、谁受损？条件因果效应识别与工资变化的福利影响AI 解读

The incidence of tax and other policy changes depends on their impact on equilibrium wages. In a standard model of labor supply, the impact of wage changes on a worker’s welfare equals current labor supply times the induced wage change. Worker heterogeneity implies that wage changes vary across workers. In this context, in order to identify welfare effects one needs to identify the causal effect of policy changes on wages conditional on baseline labor supply and wages.

利用多来源数据估计与推断半参数模型AI 解读

This paper studies the estimation and inference of nonlinear econometric models when the economic variables are contained in different data sets. We construct a semiparametric minimum distance (SMD) estimator of the unknown structural parameter of interest when there are some common conditioning variables in different data sets. The SMD estimator is shown to be consistent and has an asymptotic normal distribution. We provide the explicit form of the optimal weight for the…

结构不稳定下预测交叉验证的分析AI 解读

When forecasting with economic time series data, researchers often use a restricted window of observations or downweight past observations in order to mitigate the potential effects of parameter instability. In this paper, we study the problem of selecting a window for point forecasts made at the end of the sample. We develop asymptotic approximations to the sampling properties of window selection methods, and post-window selection point forecasts, where there is local…

预期存在缺失数据时的最小最大遗憾样本设计：面板应用AI 解读

Missing data problems are ubiquitous in data collection. In surveys, these problems may arise from unit response, item nonresponse, and panel attrition. Building on the Dominitz and Manski (2017) study of choice between two or more sampling processes that differ in cost and quality, we study minimax-regret sample design in anticipation of missing data, where the collected data will be used for prediction under square loss of the values of functions of two variables. The…

含治愈比例的删失生存分位数回归模型AI 解读

A new quantile regression model for survival data is proposed that permits a positive proportion of subjects to become unsusceptible to recurrence of disease following treatment or based on other observable characteristics. In contrast to prior proposals for quantile regression estimation of censored survival models, we propose a new “data augmentation” approach to estimation. Our approach has computational advantages over earlier approaches proposed by Wu and Yin (2013,…

少量处理观测与大量对照观测下的匹配估计AI 解读

We analyze the properties of matching estimators when there are few treated, but many control observations. We show that, under standard assumptions, the nearest neighbor matching estimator for the average treatment effect on the treated is asymptotically unbiased in this framework. However, when the number of treated observations is fixed, the estimator is not consistent, and it is generally not asymptotically normal. Since standard inference methods are inadequate, we…

含干扰参数的异质性处理效应置换检验AI 解读

This paper proposes an asymptotically valid permutation test for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of an estimated nuisance parameter. Not accounting for the estimation error of the nuisance parameter results in statistics that depend on the particulars of the data generating process, and the resulting permutation test fails to control the Type 1 error, even asymptotically.

处理时点存在差异的双重差分AI 解读

The canonical difference-in-differences (DD) estimator contains two time periods, ”pre” and ”post”, and two groups, ”treatment” and ”control”. Most DD applications, however, exploit variation across groups of units that receive treatment at different times. This paper shows that the two-way fixed effects estimator equals a weighted average of all possible two-group/two-period DD estimators in the data. A causal interpretation of two-way fixed effects DD estimates requires…

针对平均处理效应的协变量调整 Fisher 随机化检验AI 解读

Fisher’s randomization test (frt) delivers exact p-values under the strong null hypothesis of no treatment effect on any units whatsoever and allows for flexible covariate adjustment to improve the power. Of interest is whether the resulting covariate-adjusted procedure could also be valid for testing the weak null hypothesis of zero average treatment effect. To this end, we evaluate two general strategies for conducting covariate adjustment in frts: the pseudo-outcome…

工具变量独立性下潜在结果分布的识别区域AI 解读

This paper examines the identifying power of instrument exogeneity in the treatment effect model. We derive the identification region of the potential outcome distributions, which are the collection of distributions that are compatible with data and with the restrictions of the model. We consider identification when (i) the instrument is independent of each of the potential outcomes (marginal independence), (ii) the instrument is independent of the potential outcomes and…

多时期双重差分的识别、估计与推断AI 解读

In this article, we consider identification, estimation, and inference procedures for treatment effect parameters using Difference-in-Differences (DiD) with (i) multiple time periods, (ii) variation in treatment timing, and (iii) when the “parallel trends assumption” holds potentially only after conditioning on observed covariates. We show that a family of causal effect parameters are identified in staggered DiD setups, even if differences in observed characteristics create…

异质处理效应下事件研究中的动态效应估计AI 解读

To estimate the dynamic effects of an absorbing treatment, researchers often use two-way fixed effects regressions that include leads and lags of the treatment. We show that in settings with variation in treatment timing across units, the coefficient on a given lead or lag can be contaminated by effects from other periods, and apparent pretrends can arise solely from treatment effects heterogeneity. We propose an alternative estimator that is free of contamination, and…