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GARCH 的预测密度与分布泛函预测AI 解读

This paper derives the analytic form of the multi-step ahead prediction density of a Gaussian GARCH(1,1) process with a possibly asymmetric news impact curve in the GJR class. These results can be applied when single-period returns are modeled as a GJR Gaussian GARCH(1,1) and interest lies in single-period returns at some future forecast horizon. The Gaussian density has been used in applications as an approximation to this as yet unknown prediction density; the analytic…

半参数变换模型中基于最大成对秩似然的推断AI 解读

In this paper, we study the linear transformation model in a general setup. This model includes many important and popular models in statistics and econometrics as special cases. Although it has been studied for many years, the methods in the literature are based on kernel-smoothing techniques or make use of only the ranks of the responses in the estimation of the parametric components. The former approach needs a tuning parameter, which is not easily optimally specified in…

分布不变的差分隐私AI 解读

Differential privacy is becoming one gold standard for protecting the privacy of publicly shared data. It has been widely used in social science, data science, public health, information technology, and the U.S. decennial census. Nevertheless, to guarantee differential privacy, existing methods may unavoidably alter the conclusion of original data analysis, as privatization often changes the sample distribution. This phenomenon is known as the trade-off between privacy…

不完整数据矩模型中的部分识别与推断AI 解读

In this paper, we develop asymptotically valid inference in moment equality models with incomplete data, where the sample information is insufficient to identify the joint distribution of all the variables in the model. Examples of such models include the selection-on-observables framework, the counterfactual distribution, and parametric regressions with incomplete data. In the first two examples, the parameter of interest includes the values of the distribution and quantile…

高维夏普比率分析：因子模型中基于残差的逐节点回归AI 解读

We provide a new theory for nodewise regression when the residuals from a fitted factor model are used. We apply our results to the analysis of the consistency of Sharpe Ratio estimators when there are many assets in a portfolio. We allow for an increasing number of assets as well as time observations of the portfolio. Since the nodewise regression is not feasible due to the unknown nature of idiosyncratic errors, we provide a feasible-residual-based nodewise regression to…

可能错设与非平稳模型中稳健推断的演化谱理论AI 解读

The literature on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference is extensive but its usefulness relies on stationarity of the relevant process, say Vt, usually a function of the data and estimated model residuals. Yet, a large body of work shows widespread evidence of various forms of nonstationarity in the latter. Also, many testing problems are such that Vt is stationary under the null hypothesis but nonstationary under the alternative. In either case, the…

时间随机占优检验AI 解读

We propose nonparametric tests for the null hypothesis of time stochastic dominance. Time stochastic dominance makes a partial order of different prospects over time based on the net present value criteria for general utility and time discount function classes. For example, time stochastic dominance can be used for ranking investment strategies or environmental policies based on the expected net present value of the future benefits. We consider an Lp-type test statistic and…

筛估计 BLP：差异化产品需求的半非参数模型AI 解读

We develop a semi-nonparametric approach to identify and estimate the demand for differentiated products. The proposed method adopts a random coefficients discrete choice logit model (i.e., mixed logit model) in which the distribution of random coefficients is nonparametrically specified. Our method minimizes misspecification error in the distribution to which routinely used parametric approach is subject. In addition, it overcomes the practical challenge of dimensionality…

不可转移效用双边网络形成模型中的逻辑差分AI 解读

This paper considers a semiparametric model of dyadic network formation under nontransferable utilities (NTU). Such dyadic links arise frequently in real-world social interactions that require bilateral consent but by their nature induce additive non-separability. In our model we show how unobserved individual heterogeneity in the network formation model can be canceled out without requiring additive separability. The approach uses a new method we call logical differencing.…

基于 K 折交叉验证的模型平均预测AI 解读

This paper considers the model averaging prediction in a quasi-likelihood framework that allows for parameter uncertainty and model misspecification. We propose an averaging prediction that selects the data-driven weights by minimizing a K-fold cross-validation. We provide two theoretical justifications for the proposed method. First, when all candidate models are misspecified, we show that the proposed averaging prediction using K-fold cross-validation weights is…

使用二元工具变量识别多元模型的一个条件AI 解读

This article introduces an empirical condition for the nonparametric point-identification of multivariate instrumental variable models with continuous endogenous variables using binary instruments. Verifying this condition can confirm point-identification in settings in which traditional approaches are not applicable. In particular, it shows that nonlinear instrumental variable models with general heterogeneity can be point-identified with only a binary instrument. This…

共同基金绩效的自助法分析AI 解读

We study bootstrap methods for fund performance evaluation. We first show that two prominent bootstrap tests have biased test sizes in a large cross-section with short time series and lack test power to detect skilled funds when a substantial number of unskilled funds are present. We then develop the theory for a valid bootstrap Hotelling’s T-squared test for zero alpha. We apply the proposed bootstrap test in a practical two-step procedure to identify skilled funds. Our…

含结构突变线性回归中贝叶斯推断的渐近性质AI 解读

This paper studies large sample properties of a Bayesian approach to inference about slope parameters γ in linear regression models with a structural break. In contrast to the conventional approach to inference about γ that does not take into account the uncertainty of the unknown break date, the Bayesian approach that we consider incorporates such uncertainty. Our main theoretical contribution is a Bernstein–von Mises type theorem (Bayesian asymptotic normality) for γ under…

灾难型冲击动态效应的时间序列估计AI 解读

This paper provides three results for SVARs under the assumption that the primitive shocks are mutually independent. First, a framework is proposed to accommodate a disaster-type variable with infinite variance into a SVAR. We show that the least squares estimates of the SVAR are consistent but have non-standard asymptotics. Second, the disaster shock is identified as the component with the largest kurtosis. An estimator that is robust to infinite variance is used to recover…

高维线性中介模型的统计推断及疫情股票反应应用AI 解读

Mediation analysis draws increasing attention in many research areas such as economics, finance and social sciences. In this paper, we propose new statistical inference procedures for high dimensional mediation models, in which both the outcome model and the mediator model are linear with high dimensional mediators. Traditional procedures for mediation analysis cannot be used to make statistical inference for high dimensional linear mediation models due to…

Hawkes 及一般点过程的自助法推断AI 解读

Inference and testing in general point process models such as the Hawkes model is predominantly based on asymptotic approximations for likelihood-based estimators and tests. As an alternative, and to improve finite sample performance, this paper considers bootstrap-based inference for interval estimation and testing. Specifically, for a wide class of point process models we consider a novel bootstrap scheme labeled ‘fixed intensity bootstrap’ (FIB), where the conditional…

修正的 Clarke 检验及模型选择扩展AI 解读

We introduce a large family of model selection tests based on the expectation of an arbitrary, possibly non-smooth, parametric criterion function of the data. The considered methodology is illustrated for several econometric problems, including linear and quantile regression. It covers the case of strictly locally non-nested models and some overlapping models. The asymptotic theory of the proposed test statistic is stated. A general exchangeable bootstrap scheme allows the…

弱工具变量稳健推断中条件似然比及相关检验的功效AI 解读

Power curves of the Conditional Likelihood Ratio (CLR) and related tests for testing H0:β=β0 in linear models with a single endogenous variable, y=xβ+u, estimated using potentially weak instrumental variables have been presented for two different designs. One design keeps the variance matrix of the structural and first-stage errors, Σ, constant, the other instead keeps the variance matrix of the reduced-form and first-stage errors, Ω, constant. The values of Σ govern the…

依赖数据的高阶正确快速移动平均自助法AI 解读

We develop the theory of a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme deploys i.i.d. resampling of smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semiparametric estimation problems for which the method is valid. We show the asymptotic refinements of the new procedure, proving that it is higher-order correct under mild assumptions on the time series, the estimating functions, and the smoothing kernel. We illustrate the applicability and the…

异质流动性下的已实现协方差建模：广义矩阵 Wishart 状态空间模型AI 解读

We propose to generalize the Wishart state-space model for realized covariance matrices of asset returns in order to capture complex measurement error structures induced by modern robust and data efficient realized covariance estimators and heterogeneous liquidity across assets. Our model assumes that the latent covariance matrix of the assets is observed through their realized covariance matrix with a Riesz measurement density, which generalizes the Wishart to monotone…

过度识别下的双重稳健识别与估计AI 解读

Consider two parametric models. At least one is correctly specified, but we do not know which. Both models include a common vector of parameters. An estimator for this common parameter vector is called Doubly Robust (DR) if it is consistent no matter which model is correct. We provide a general technique for constructing DR estimators (assuming the models are over identified). Our Over-identified Doubly Robust (ODR) technique is a simple extension of the Generalized Method…

线性工具变量模型中对识别强度稳健的非参数推断AI 解读

For a linear IV regression, we propose two new inference procedures on parameters of endogenous variables that are robust to any identification pattern, do not rely on a linear first-stage equation, and account for heteroskedasticity of unknown form. Building on Bierens (1982), we first propose an Integrated Conditional Moment (ICM) type statistic constructed by setting the parameters to the value under the null hypothesis. The ICM procedure tests at the same time the value…

协变量自适应随机化下分位数处理效应的回归调整估计AI 解读

Datasets from field experiments with covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) usually contain extra covariates in addition to the strata indicators. We propose to incorporate these additional covariates via auxiliary regressions in the estimation and inference of unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) under CARs. We establish the consistency and limit distribution of the regression-adjusted QTE estimator and prove that the use of multiplier bootstrap inference is…

具有战略替代性的多重处理AI 解读

We develop an empirical framework to identify and estimate the effects of treatments on outcomes of interest when the treatments are the result of strategic interaction (e.g., bargaining, oligopolistic entry, peer effects). We consider a model where agents play a discrete game of complete information and strategic substitutability, whose equilibrium actions (i.e., binary treatments) determine a post-game outcome in a nonseparable model with endogeneity. Due to the…