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A multivariate approach to modeling univariate seasonal time series

单变量季节时间序列建模的多变量方法

A seasonal time series can be represented by a vector autoregressive model for the annual series containing the seasonal observations. This model allows for periodically varying coefficients. When the vector elements are integrated, the maximum likelihood cointegration method can be used to check for the presence of, possibly restricted, cointegration relations between these annual series. In this paper it is shown that this application generalizes a test procedure for…

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Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model

长期与短期结构的识别:ISLM 模型应用

In this paper we discuss the problem of identification in a model with cointegration. It is pointed out that there is an identification problem for both long-run parameters and short-run parameters. The identification of the equations and the cointegrating relations is achieved by linear restrictions on the parameters and a criterion for a statistical model to be identifying is given. We also define empirical identification of an estimated structure. A switching algorithm…

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Approximate generalized extreme value models of discrete choice

离散选择的近似广义极值模型

Estimation of generalized extreme value (GEV) models of discrete choice is hampered by computational complexity and convergence problems. However, the much simpler estimation routine for multinomial logit can be applied in a two-step procedure so as to test the null hypothesis of multinomial logit against any particular GEV model as an alternative hypothesis. The procedure also produces an approximate estimate of the GEV model. Monte Carlo data, generated alternatively by…

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