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风险、跳跃与分散化AI 解读

We test for price discontinuities, or jumps, in a panel of high-frequency intraday stock returns and an equiweighted index constructed from the same stocks. Using a new test for common jumps that explicitly utilizes the cross-covariance structure in the returns to identify non-diversifiable jumps, we find strong evidence for many modest-sized, yet highly significant, cojumps that simply pass through standard jump detection statistics when applied on a stock-by-stock basis.…

固定效应面板模型的非参数估计与检验AI 解读

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating nonparametric panel data models with fixed effects. We introduce an iterative nonparametric kernel estimator. We also extend the estimation method to the case of a semiparametric partially linear fixed effects model. To determine whether a parametric, semiparametric or nonparametric model is appropriate, we propose test statistics to test between the three alternatives in practice. We further propose a test statistic for…

用于金融与预测的 t 分布混合AI 解读

We explore convenient analytic properties of distributions constructed as mixtures of scaled and shifted t-distributions. Particularly desirable for econometric applications are closed-form expressions for antiderivatives (e.g., the cumulative density function). We illustrate the usefulness of these distributions in two applications. In the first application, we produce density forecasts of U.S. inflation and show that these forecasts are more accurate, out-of-sample, than…

非参数联立方程模型的局部多项式估计AI 解读

We define a new procedure for consistent estimation of nonparametric simultaneous equations models under the conditional mean independence restriction of Newey et al. [1999. Nonparametric estimation of triangular simultaneous equation models. Econometrica 67, 565-603]. It is based upon local polynomial regression and marginal integration techniques. We establish the asymptotic distribution of our estimator under weak data dependence conditions. Simulation evidence suggests…

高阶矩不依赖解释变量时的非正态高效估计：残差增广最小二乘AI 解读

Under normality, least squares is efficient. However, if the errors are not normal, we can gain efficiency from the assertion that higher moments do not depend on the regressors. In this paper, we show how the assumption that higher moments do not depend on the regressors can be exploited in a GMM framework, and we provide simple estimators that are asymptotically equivalent to the GMM estimators. These estimators can be calculated by linear regressions which have been…

工具变量分位数模型中的弱识别稳健检验AI 解读

We develop a testing procedure that is robust to identification quality in an instrumental quantile model. In order to reduce the computational burden, a multi-step approach is taken, and a two-step Anderson-Rubin (AR) statistic is considered. We then propose an orthogonal decomposition of the AR statistic, where the null distribution of each component does not depend on the assumption of a full rank of the Jacobian. Power experiments are conducted, and inferences on returns…

基于排列熵的非参数独立性检验AI 解读

In the present paper we construct a new, simple, consistent and powerful test for independence by using symbolic dynamics and permutation entropy as a measure of serial dependence. We also give a standard asymptotic distribution of an affine transformation of the permutation entropy under the null hypothesis of independence. The test statistic and its standard limit distribution are invariant to any monotonic transformation. The test applies to time series with discrete or…

利用稀疏网格数值积分近似似然AI 解读

The calculation of likelihood functions of many econometric models requires the evaluation of integrals without analytical solutions. Approaches for extending Gaussian quadrature to multiple dimensions discussed in the literature are either very specific or suffer from exponentially rising computational costs in the number of dimensions. We propose an extension that is very general and easily implemented, and does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Monte Carlo…

利用工具变量识别和估计含误分类误差的非线性模型：一般解法AI 解读

This paper provides a general solution to the problem of identification and estimation of nonlinear models with misclassification error in a general discrete explanatory variable using instrumental variables. The misclassification error is allowed to be correlated with all the explanatory variables in the model. It is not enough to identify the model by simply generalizing the identification in the binary case with a claim that the number of restrictions is no less than that…

离散及随机采样扩散过程的 Hansen–Scheinkman 矩估计量分析AI 解读

We derive closed-form expansions for the asymptotic distribution of Hansen and Scheinkman [1995. Back to the future: generating moment implications for continuous-time Markov processes. Econometrica 63, 767-804] moment estimators for discretely, and possibly randomly, sampled diffusions. This result makes it possible to select optimal moment conditions as well as to assess the efficiency of the resulting parameter estimators relative to likelihood-based estimators, or to an…

平滑非参数条件分位数前沿估计AI 解读

Traditional estimators for nonparametric frontier models (DEA, FDH) are very sensitive to extreme values/outliers. Recently, Aragon et al. [2005. Nonparametric frontier estimation: a conditional quantile-based approach. Econometric Theory 21, 358-389] proposed a nonparametric [alpha]-frontier model and estimator based on a suitably defined conditional quantile which is more robust to extreme values/outliers. Their estimator is based on a nonsmooth empirical conditional…

误设下线性理性预期模型估计量的偏差AI 解读

Most rational expectations models involve equations in which the dependent variable is a function of its lags and its expected future value. We investigate the asymptotic bias of generalized method of moment (GMM) and maximum likelihood (ML) estimators in such models under misspecification. We consider several misspecifications, and focus more specifically on the case of omitted dynamics in the dependent variable. In a stylized DGP, we derive analytically the asymptotic…

长期风险与收益的权衡AI 解读

Excess market returns are correlated with past market variance. This dependence is statistically mild at short horizons (thereby leading to a hard-to-detect risk-return trade-off, as in the existing literature) but increases with the horizon and is strong in the long run (i.e., between 6 and 10 years). From an econometric standpoint, we find that the long-run predictive power of past market variance is robust to the statistical properties of long-horizon stock-return…

高维加性模型中半参数函数的贝叶斯识别、选择与估计AI 解读

In this paper we propose an approach to both estimate and select unknown smooth functions in an additive model with potentially many functions. Each function is written as a linear combination of basis terms, with coefficients regularized by a proper linearly constrained Gaussian prior. Given any potentially rank deficient prior precision matrix, we show how to derive linear constraints so that the corresponding effect is identified in the additive model. This allows for the…

具有内生状态转换的马尔可夫状态转换回归模型估计AI 解读

Following Hamilton [1989. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357-384], estimation of Markov regime-switching regressions typically relies on the assumption that the latent state variable controlling regime change is exogenous. We relax this assumption and develop a parsimonious model of endogenous Markov regime-switching. Inference via maximum likelihood estimation is possible with relatively minor…

具有内生选择的有序 Probit 模型的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of an ordered probit model with endogenous selection. The model can be applied when analyzing ordered outcomes that depend on endogenous covariates that are discrete choice indicators modeled by a multinomial probit model. The model is illustrated by analyzing the effects of different types of medical insurance plans on the level of hospital utilization, allowing for potential endogeneity of insurance status. The estimation is…

条件异方差波动下利用小波平滑检测收益变化AI 解读

In this paper, we propose two estimators, an integral estimator and a discretized estimator, for the wavelet coefficient of regression functions in nonparametric regression models with heteroscedastic variance. These estimators can be used to test the jumps of the regression function. The model allows for lagged-dependent variables and other mixing regressors. The asymptotic distributions of the statistics are established, and the asymptotic critical values are analytically…

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