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采用 Dirichlet 过程混合误差的加性三次样条回归AI 解读

The goal of this article is to develop a flexible Bayesian analysis of regression models for continuous and categorical outcomes. In the models we study, covariate (or regression) effects are modeled additively by cubic splines, and the error distribution (that of the latent outcomes in the case of categorical data) is modeled as a Dirichlet process mixture. We employ a relatively unexplored but attractive basis in which the spline coefficients are the unknown function…

Hausman 预检验对假设检验尺寸的影响：面板数据情形AI 解读

The size properties of a two-stage test in a panel data model are investigated where in the first stage a Hausman (1978) specification test is used as a pretest of the random effects specification and in the second stage, a simple hypothesis about a component of the parameter vector is tested, using a t-statistic that is based on either the random effects or the fixed effects estimator depending on the outcome of the Hausman pretest. It is shown that the asymptotic size of…

利用梯形核在 GMM 中同时选择和加权矩条件AI 解读

This paper proposes a novel procedure to estimate linear models when the number of instruments is large. At the heart of such models is the need to balance the trade off between attaining asymptotic efficiency, which requires more instruments, and minimizing bias, which is adversely affected by the addition of instruments. Two questions are of central concern: (1) What is the optimal number of instruments to use? (2) Should the instruments receive different weights? This…

序贯教育决策中的异质回报AI 解读

This paper presents a method for estimating returns to multiple schooling levels taking into account that returns may be heterogeneous among agents and that educational decisions are made sequentially. A sequential decision model explicitly considers that the level of education is the result of previous schooling choices and so, the variation of supply-side instruments over time will emerge as a source of identification of the desired parameters. A test for heterogeneity in…

基于 Mallows 准则的最小二乘模型平均AI 解读

This paper is in response to a recent paper by Hansen (2007) who proposed an optimal model average estimator with weights selected by minimizing a Mallows criterion. The main contribution of Hansen's paper is a demonstration that the Mallows criterion is asymptotically equivalent to the squared error, so the model average estimator that minimizes the Mallows criterion also minimizes the squared error in large samples. We are concerned with two assumptions that accompany…

两类半参数扩散模型的伪最大似然估计AI 解读

Two classes of semiparametric diffusion models are considered, where either the drift or the diffusion term is parameterized, while the other term is left unspecified. We propose a pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator (PMLE) of the parametric component that maximizes the likelihood with a preliminary estimator of the unspecified term plugged in. It is demonstrated how models and estimators can be used in a two-step specification testing strategy of semiparametric and fully…

动态离散选择结构模型：综述AI 解读

This paper reviews methods for the estimation of dynamic discrete choice structural models and discusses related econometric issues. We consider single-agent models, competitive equilibrium models and dynamic games. The methods are illustrated with descriptions of empirical studies which have applied these techniques to problems in different areas of economics. Programming codes for some of the estimation methods are available in a companion web page.

工具变量与结构模型的比较：简单 IV 能识别什么AI 解读

This paper compares the economic questions addressed by instrumental variables estimators with those addressed by structural approaches. We discuss Marschak's Maxim: estimators should be selected on the basis of their ability to answer well-posed economic problems with minimal assumptions. A key identifying assumption that allows structural methods to be more informative than IV can be tested with data and does not have to be imposed.

摘要暂缺

儿童照护选择与认知能力生产模型的准结构估计AI 解读

This article evaluates the effects of maternal vs. alternative care providers' time inputs on children's cognitive development using the sample of single mothers in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. To deal with the selection problem created by unobserved heterogeneity of mothers and children, we develop a model of mother's employment and childcare decisions. We then obtain approximate decision rules for employment and childcare use, and estimate these jointly with…

摘要暂缺

计量经济学中的结构方法与非理论方法AI 解读

In this paper I attempt to lay out the sources of conflict between the so-called "structural" and "experimentalist" camps in econometrics. Critics of the structural approach often assert that it produces results that rely on too many assumptions to be credible, and that the experimentalist approach provides an alternative that relies on fewer assumptions. Here, I argue that this is a false dichotomy. All econometric work relies heavily on a priori assumptions. The main…

健康、经济资源与高龄男性的工作决策AI 解读

We specify a dynamic programming model that addresses the interplay among health, financial resources, and the labor market behavior of men late in their working lives. We model health as a latent variable, for which self-reported disability status is an indicator, and allow self-reported disability to be endogenous to labor market behavior. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study. While we find large impacts of health on behavior, they are substantially…

评级迁移时间平稳性的似然比检验AI 解读

We study the time-stationarity of rating transitions, modelled by a time-continuous discrete-state Markov process and derive a likelihood ratio test. For multiple Markov processes from a multiplicative intensity model, maximum likelihood parameter estimates can be written as martingale transform of the processes, counting transitions between the rating states, so that the profile partial likelihood ratio is asymptotically [chi]2-distributed. An application to an internal…

未知单整阶数的分数系统非参数协整分析AI 解读

In this paper a nonparametric variance ratio testing approach is proposed for determining the cointegration rank in fractionally integrated systems. The test statistic is easily calculated without prior knowledge of the integration order of the data, the strength of the cointegrating relations, or the cointegration vector(s). The latter property makes it easier to implement than regression-based approaches, especially when examining relationships between several variables…

非线性与时间依赖AI 解读

Nonlinearities in the drift and diffusion coefficients influence temporal dependence in diffusion models. We study this link using three measures of temporal dependence: [rho]-mixing, [beta]-mixing and [alpha]-mixing. Stationary diffusions that are [rho]-mixing have mixing coefficients that decay exponentially to zero. When they fail to be [rho]-mixing, they are still [beta]-mixing and [alpha]-mixing; but coefficient decay is slower than exponential. For such processes we…

可忽略性下多值处理效应的有效半参数估计AI 解读

This paper studies the efficient estimation of a large class of multi-valued treatment effects as implicitly defined by a collection of possibly over-identified non-smooth moment conditions when the treatment assignment is assumed to be ignorable. Two estimators are introduced together with a set of sufficient conditions that ensure their -consistency, asymptotic normality and efficiency. Under mild assumptions, these conditions are satisfied for the Marginal Mean Treatment…

动态不变性多项 Probit 模型：识别、预检验与估计AI 解读

We present a new specification for the multinomial multiperiod probit model with autocorrelated errors. In sharp contrast with commonly used specifications, ours is invariant with respect to the choice of a baseline alternative for utility differencing. It also nests these standard models as special cases, allowing for data-based selection of the baseline alternatives for the latter. Likelihood evaluation is achieved under an Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) version of…

时间序列模型设定的渐近分布无关检验AI 解读

We consider a class of time series specification tests based on quadratic forms of weighted sums of residuals autocorrelations. Asymptotically distribution-free tests in the presence of estimated parameters are obtained by suitably transforming the weights, which can be optimally chosen to maximize the power function when testing in the direction of local alternatives. We discuss in detail an asymptotically optimal distribution-free alternative to the popular Box-Pierce when…

异质性处理效应：没有单调性的工具变量？AI 解读

Imbens and Angrist (1994) were the first to exploit a monotonicity condition in order to identify a local average treatment effect parameter using instrumental variables. More recently, Heckman and Vytlacil (1999) suggested the estimation of a variety of treatment effect parameters using a local version of their approach. We investigate the sensitivity of the respective estimates to random departures from monotonicity. Approximations to the respective bias terms are derived.…

广义删失分位数回归模型的积分最大得分估计AI 解读

Quantile regression techniques have been widely used in empirical economics. In this paper, we consider the estimation of a generalized quantile regression model when data are subject to fixed or random censoring. Through a discretization technique, we transform the censored regression model into a sequence of binary choice models and further propose an integrated smoothed maximum score estimator by combining individual binary choice models, following the insights ofÂ…

非线性、非平稳性与厚尾如何共同产生记忆持久性AI 解读

We consider nonlinear functions of random walks driven by thick-tailed innovations. Nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and thick tails interact to generate a spectrum of autocorrelation patterns consistent with the observed persistence in memory of many economic and financial time series. Depending upon the type of transformation considered and whether it is observed with noise, the autocorrelations are given by unity, random constants, or hyperbolically decaying deterministic…

条件异方差非线性参数模型的密度估计AI 解读

This article studies density and parameter estimation problems for nonlinear parametric models with conditional heteroscedasticity. We propose a simple density estimate that is particularly useful for studying the stationary density of nonlinear time series models. Under a general dependence structure, we establish the root n consistency of the proposed density estimate. For parameter estimation, a Bahadur type representation is obtained for the conditional maximum…

分布性政策效应的非参数估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a fully nonparametric procedure to evaluate the effect of a counterfactual change in the distribution of some covariates on the unconditional distribution of an outcome variable of interest. In contrast to other methods, we do not restrict attention to the effect on the mean. In particular, our method can be used to conduct inference on the change of the distribution function as a whole, its moments and quantiles, inequality measures such as the Lorenz…