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利用定性调查数据探索通胀预期形成机制AI 解读

The objective of this article is to propose a method of exploring the mechanism of expectation formation based on qualitative survey data. The survey data are regarded as a sample from a multinomial distribution whose parameters are time-variant functions of inflation expectations. The parameters are estimated using a Bayesian recursive approach, which is a generalization of the Kalman filtering technique. For illustrative purposes, the method is applied to Japanese data.…

聚合指标有效性的检验AI 解读

Ths article develops a new approach for testing aggregation restrictions in estimated production-function and cost-function models. Rather than using the well-known separability conditions for the existence of an aggregate, this approach focuses on testng whether a particular aggregate is valid and develops empirically testable necessary and sufficient conditions for the validity of some known aggregation scheme. An empirical section examines the power of this test in the…

预测的预检验与校正AI 解读

Sometimes it is suggested that end users can improve forecasts by some kind of corrections. At least implicitly, the idea is to use such corrections if the forecasts appear too inaccurate by some criteria. Alternative forecasts can be defined based on whether a preliminary test of forecast usefulness and a subsequent correction has been made. The mean squared errors as some such forecasts are studied using some recent results on inequality pretesting. Uncorrected forecasts…

阿根廷1978—1987年的货币需求：奥斯特拉尔计划前后AI 解读

In this study, a monthly money-demand function for Argentina is estimated for a period that ends one month before the austral program (May 1985). The performance of the traditional econometric approach is compared with the new cointegration approach to time series econometrics. The comparison is carried out by a postsample forecast of the demand for money for a period of two years after the stabilization (until July 1987). The cointegration approach is found superior to the…

动态模型的设定分析AI 解读

The theoretical and empirical implications of omitted variables, particularly dynamic adjustment effects, are studied. In particular, the attempt to model for such omission by including possibly irrelevant variables is investigated. This extends the existing knowledge of misspecification analysis in several directions. Ordinary least squares is the estimation technique under study, as has been the case in several recent and related studies. In our empirical example, the…

针对半非参数备择的正态性拉格朗日乘子检验AI 解读

In this article, I derive the Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis that a stationary random vector has a (possibly heteroscedastic) normal distribution against the alternative that the distribution is a member of the family with seminonparametric probability density functions considered by Gallant and Tauchen (1989). The test is shown to contain special case of the moment tests proposed by Newey (1985) and Tauchen (1985). Evidence from a small simulation study is…

使用结构时间序列模型进行季节调整：应用及与 Census X-11 方法的比较AI 解读

This article makes the method of seasonal adjustment operational using suitable structural time series models (STM). This so-called STM method is applied to several relevant Dutch macro- economic quarterly and monthly time series. The results are compared with those of the Census X-11 method using several formal criteria as yardsticks. The STM method proves to compete well with the Census X-11 method in this respect.

利用微观数据估计需求系统：删失回归方法AI 解读

Demand systems estimation increasingly makes use of household-level microdata, mainly to measure the effects of demographic variables. Data based on these household-expenditure surveys present a major estimation problem. For any given household, many of the goods have zero consumption, implying a censored dependent variable. Techniques which do not take this censored dependent variable into account will yield biased results. We utilize a censored regression approach that is…

含有序不可观测变量的线性模型两步估计：公司债券应用AI 解读

This article proposes a two-step method for estimating the impact of bond indenture provisions and other financial variables on the risk and yields of investment-grade and speculative corporate bonds. In the first step, the default risk of bonds is estimated as a function of indenture provisions and the characteristics of bonds and the issuing firms by an ordered probit. In the second step, the effects of default risk and bond characteristics on yields are estimated after a…

总体子域规模的估计：审计中的应用AI 解读

This article suggests an alternative to the ratio estimator for estimating the total size of a subdomain of a population. The application that served as the genesis for this work is from auditing. The problem is to estimate the total of sales transactions that are not tax exempt from an audit sample of the population of nontaxed sales transactions. A superpopulation approach, which models the unit's probability of belonging to the subdomain as a function of its size, leads…

Logit 模型中的对称性约束与可变规模报酬AI 解读

This article addresses two problems with earlier applications of the linear logit model of cost shares. The first problem is that symmetry holds only for one set of cost shares. In this article, an iterative, nonlinear estimation procedure is used to impose symmetry for all predicted shares. The second problem is that analytical expressions for the integrals of log-linear cost shares cannot be derived analytically, although they exist, given the continuity of the logit share…

在线性回归模型中结合相关研究与稀疏数据AI 解读

Meta-analysis has become a popular approach for studying systematic variation in parameter estimates across studies. this article discusses the use of meta-analysis results as prior information in a new study. Although hierarchical prior distributions in a traditional Bayesian framework are characterized by complete exchangeability, meta-analysis priors explicitly incorporate heterogeneity in prior vectors. This article discusses the nature of the meta-analysis priors, their…

汇总初步劳动力市场数据估计当季国民生产总值AI 解读

Two methods of using labor-market data as indicators of contemporaneous gross national product (GNP) are developed. The establishment survey data are used by inverting a partial-adjustment equation for hours. A second GNP forecast can be extracted from the household survey by using Okun's law. Using preliminary rather than final data adds about .2 to .4 percentage points to the expected value of the root mean squared errors and changes the weights that the pooling procedures…

The small-sample behavior of the bootstrap is investigated as a method for estimating p values and power in the stationary first-order autoregressive model. Monte Carlo methods are used to examine the bootstrap and Student-t approximations to the true distribution of the test statistic frequently used for testing hypotheses on the underlying slope parameter. In contrast to Student's t, the results suggest that the bootstrap can accurately estimate p values and power in this…

This article develops a theory and methodology for repeated time series (RTS) measurements on autoregressive integrated moving average-noise (ARIMAN) process. The theory enables us to relax the normality assumption in the ARIMAN model and to identify models for each component series of the process. We discuss the properties, estimation, and forecasting of RTS ARIMAN models and illustrate with examples.

This article studies how to identify influential observations in univariate autoregressive integrated moving average time series models and how to measure their effects on the estimated parameters of the model. The sensitivity of the parameters to the presence of either additive or innovational outliers is analyzed, and influence statistics based on the Mahalanobis distance are presented. The statistic linked to additive outliers is shown to be very useful for indicating the…

This article examines the persistence of the variance, as measured by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, in stock-return data. In particular, we investigate the extent to which persistence in variance may be overstated because of the existence of, and failure to take account of, deterministic structural shifts in the model. Both an analysis of daily stock-return data and a Monte Carlo simulation experiment confirm the hypothesis that…

In a recent article, Garcia-Ferrer, Highfield, Palm, and Zellner (1987) used pooling techniques to forecast annual output growth rates in nine countries. Examining various model specifications, they found that, among the fixed-parameter models investigated, a third-order autoregressive (AR) model with leading indicators, AR(3)LI, produces the best forecasts overall. A reexamination using state-space methods shows that a more parsimonious fixed-parameter model, which does not…

ARIMA 噪声模型的重复时间序列分析AI 解读

This article develops a theory and methodology for repeated time series (RTS) measurements on autoregressive integrated moving average-noise (ARIMAN) process. The theory enables us to relax the normality assumption in the ARIMAN model and to identify models for each component series of the process. We discuss the properties, estimation, and forecasting of RTS ARIMAN models and illustrate with examples.

一阶自回归中 p 值与检验力的自助法估计：蒙特卡洛研究AI 解读

The small-sample behavior of the bootstrap is investigated as a method for estimating p values and power in the stationary first-order autoregressive model. Monte Carlo methods are used to examine the bootstrap and Student-t approximations to the true distribution of the test statistic frequently used for testing hypotheses on the underlying slope parameter. In contrast to Student's t, the results suggest that the bootstrap can accurately estimate p values and power in this…

交叉验证、贝叶斯定理与小样本偏差AI 解读

Researchers in many fields of business are beginning to use cross-validatory techniques to choose between alternative models. In marketing, a Bayesian interpretation of the technique has been proposed. This article examines the Bayesian link in more detail and shows that cross-validatory posterior odds exhibit a systematic departure from exact posterior odds when sample-splitting procedures are employed. Resampling procedures also exhibit a systematic departure when the…

均值发生变化的时间序列单位根检验AI 解读

This study considers testing for a unit root in a time series characterized by a structural change in its mean level. My approach follows the “intervention analysis” of Box and Tiao (1975) in the sense that I consider the change as being exogenous and as occurring at a known date. Standard unit-root tests are shown to be biased toward nonrejection of the hypothesis of a unit root when the full sample is used. Since tests using split sample regressions usually have low power,…

单位根检验与季节调整的统计陷阱：美国战后实际国民生产总值的案例AI 解读

Unit-root tests applied to the postwar seasonally adjusted quarterly gross national product series strongly support the null hypothesis of the presence of a unit root in the data-generating process. Evidence reported here with seasonally unadjusted data is far less conclusive. It is explained why seasonal-adjustment procedures may alter the outcome of conventional tests.

From an analysis of the track records of U.S. economic forecasters, Stekler (1987) concluded that "all forecasters are not equal." This article shows that his result is based on an incorrectly defined test statistic. When a more appropriate test is conducted, the figures suggest that accuracy rankings are not significantly different from those that might be expected as a result of sampling error in a population of equally accurate forecasters.