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经济周期阶段及其转移动态AI 解读

This article examines differences in expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle. By extending the nonlinear Markov-switching estimation method of J. D. Hamilton to incorporate time-varying probabilities of transitions between the phases, the marginal benefits of the time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model are highlighted. Using this technique, the author documents the high correlation between the evolution of the phases inferred from the…

对 Box–Tidwell 灵活函数形式施加一次齐次性AI 解读

The authors consider two forms of the Box-Tidwell cost function, which uses the increasingly popular Box-Cox metric. If the dependent variable is the logarithm of cost, the function violates the regularity condition of homogeneity in factor prices, globally and locally. If cost is transformed by the Box-Cox metric, global homogeneity requires highly restrictive parameter constraints such that the model is no longer flexible, while local homogeneity is satisfied at only the…

居民天然气与电力消费模式的计量分析AI 解读

In this article, we investigate individual consumption data of natural gas and electricity using modified multiple regression techniques. Because a subset of households have zero gas consumption, the purpose of the study is to ask two empirical questions: 1. How can we quantify potential energy conservation from increasing gas availability? 2. Is it appropriate to estimate and compare electricity demands of gas users and nonusers by the same regression function? We began our…

自回归模型的近似中位数无偏估计AI 解读

This paper introduces approximately median-unbiased estimators and confidence intervals for univariate AR(p) models with time trends. The methods are applied to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data series, the extended Nelson-Plosser series, and some annual stock dividend and price series. The results show that most of the series exhibit substantially greater persistence than least squares estimates and some Bayesian estimates suggest. For example, for the extended…

方差比检验的小样本性质：国际产出数据应用AI 解读

Two aspects of statistical inference using variance-ratio statistics are studied, (1) the accuracy of asymptotic approximations in small samples and (2) the size distortion arising from searching over many horizons in deciding whether to reject a model. A joint test combining variance-ratio statistics at various horizons is proposed and a Monte Carlo procedure for conducting exact inference is provided. The real output data of nine countries are used to discuss these issues.

单位根与协整检验的近似渐近分布函数AI 解读

Monte Carlo experiments and response surface regressions are used to calculate approximate asymptotic distribution functions for a number of well-known unit root and cointegration test statistics. These allow empirical workers to calculate approximate P values for these tests. The results of the paper are based on an extensive set of Monte Carlo experiments, which yield finite-sample quantiles for several sample sizes. Response surface regressions are then used to obtain…

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Equity 估计量的统计性质：答复AI 解读

R. C. Hill and P. A. Cartwright (1994) examined the relative performance of ordinary least squares, the equity estimator, and the Stein estimator on four scanner data sets. Based on this limited simulation, they claimed that the Stein estimator is an attractive alternative to the equity estimator. In this reply, the authors demonstrate that Hill and Cartwright's conclusions are not well founded and that a more comprehensive evaluation indicates that the equity estimator…

Equity 估计量的统计性质AI 解读

The equity estimator, proposed by L. Krishnamurthi and A. Rangaswamy (1987), is shown to be inconsistent and to not necessarily improve upon the mean square error of the least squares estimator. A Monte Carlo experiment, based on the price-promotion model marketing research, with marketing data, is performed. The mean square error of the equity estimator is compared to that of two empirical Bayes estimators and the least square estimator. The empirical Bayes estimators have…

对Box–Tidwell灵活函数形式施加一次齐次性AI 解读

The authors consider two forms of the Box-Tidwell cost function, which uses the increasingly popular Box-Cox metric. If the dependent variable is the logarithm of cost, the function violates the regularity condition of homogeneity in factor prices, globally and locally. If cost is transformed by the Box-Cox metric, global homogeneity requires highly restrictive parameter constraints such that the model is no longer flexible, while local homogeneity is satisfied at only the…

一种一致的单位根检验AI 解读

This article investigates several U.S. macroeconomic time series for the presence of a unit root using a newly developed test. This test has stationarity as its null hypothesis and the alternative is a unit-root process. The test is shown to be consistent and its asymptotic null distribution is determined. The authors' findings contrast sharply with those obtained via the standard unit-root tests.

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对 DeCoster 与 Mitchell《非线性货币动态》的评论AI 解读

The concept of dimension, its uses, and the difficulties in estimation are not universally well understood. A recent article in the Journal of Business & Economic Statistics by DeCoster and Mitchell (1991) (DM) illustrates our claim. Dimension calculations are useful for characterizing the topological properties of the data. The nonexistence of a lowdimensional attracting set, however, implies nothing about the presence of complicated dynamics. For succinct reference to…

截断偏差与收入不平等的排序评价AI 解读

Lorenz dominance analysis is used to examine the effect of top-coding on the ordinal evaluation of U.S. income inequality across time. Current Population Survey microdata are adjusted for truncation bias, and statistical inference procedures are used to examine biennial changes in unadjusted and adjusted Lorenz curves. Beginning in 1985, the truncation bias has a significant effect on ordinal rankings of income inequality.

双重单位根的半参数检验AI 解读

In this article, I argue that if an explosive root is considered a serious alternative to an I(2) process, then joint testing for the number of unit roots along the lines of Hasza and Fuller is preferable instead of prior differencing as suggested by Dickey and Pantula. A semiparametric equivalent of the Hasza-Fuller test that permits rather general assumptions about the innovation process is developed. The test is a straightforward generalization of the Phillips Z test for…

基于椭圆模型混合的单位根假说决策理论分析AI 解读

This paper develops a formal decision theoretic approach to testing for a unit root in economic time series. The approach is empirically implemented by specifying a loss function based on predictive variances; models are chosen so as to minimize expected loss. In addition, the paper broadens the class of likelihood functions traditionally considered in the Bayesian unit root literature. Empirical results indicate that, while the posterior probability of trend-stationarity is…

将 Hansen–Jagannathan 界用于资产定价模型的经典检验AI 解读

In this article, tests of the implications of consumption-based asset-pricing models are developed. Four of these tests are based on variance bounds for intertemporal marginal rates of substitution introduced by L. P. Hansen and R. Jagannathan. The tests provide one means of quantifying the effects of sampling error when the bounds are used as a diagnostic device. The tests are used to construct confidence regions for the parameters of an asset-pricing model using U.S. data.…

金融企业的货币服务生产：广义对称 Barnett 可变利润函数方法AI 解读

An alternative monetary-production model of financial firms is employed to investigate supply-side monetary aggregation. Financial firms are conceived to produce monetary services as outputs through financial intermediation. A new method for testing the existence of consistent monetary-output aggregates in financial firms' production technology is developed in terms of a multiproduct firm's variable profit function, and the method does not require homotheticity of the…

工具变量估计下细分模型与加总模型的选择AI 解读

A choice criterion is proposed for discriminating between disaggregate and aggregate models estimated by the instrumental variables method. The criterion, based on prediction errors, represents a generalization of criteria developed in the context of classical regressions models. The paper also derives general tests for aggregation bias in the instrumental variables context. The criterion and tests are applied in an analysis of U.K. employment demand. It is shown that a…

结构时间序列模型的预测表现AI 解读

Although theoretical research on the properties of structural time-series models has regularly appeared in the literature, there is as yet scant evidence on the forecasting performance of structural models relative to more traditional methods. This study compares the empirical performance of structural time-series models to four methods that are similar in complexity using 111 business and economic time series. The structural approach appears to perform quite well on annual,…

美国货币需求的适当规模变量：消费与收入指标的非嵌套检验AI 解读

The purpose of this article is to employ several nonnested procedures to empirically test the proposition put forward by Mankiw and Summers that consumption rather than income is the appropriate scale measure in the money demand function. Real income, real disposable income, consumer spending on nondurables, personal consumption expenditures, and total private spending are tested as candidates for the scale variable. Tests are carried out for both M1 and M2 concepts of…

利用新古典消费者选择理论从购买数据构建市场图谱AI 解读

This article presents a new model for estimating the spatial representation of objects and preference vectors from actual choice behavior of individuals or households. It is based on neoclassical economic theory of consumer choice. The model integrates both decisions of which good(s) to buy and the quantity of purchase. Overall preference is decomposed into price effects and intrinsic preference for the good. A maximum likelihood method for estimating the model parameters is…

将 Hansen–Jagannathan 界用于资产定价模型的经典检验AI 解读

In this article, tests of the implications of consumption-based asset-pricing models are developed. Four of these tests are based on variance bounds for intertemporal marginal rates of substitution introduced by L. P. Hansen and R. Jagannathan. The tests provide one means of quantifying the effects of sampling error when the bounds are used as a diagnostic device. The tests are used to construct confidence regions for the parameters of an asset-pricing model using U.S. data.…