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最低工资对就业与在校就读的影响AI 解读

The focus on employment effects in recent studies of minimum wages ignores an important interaction between schooling, employment, and the minimum wage. To study these linkages, the authors estimate a conditional logit model of employment and enrollment outcomes for teenagers using state-year observations for the period 1977 to 1989. The authors find a negative influence of minimum wages on school enrollment and a positive effect on the proportion of teens neither employed…

教育回报的分样本工具变量估计AI 解读

Two-stage least squares is biased in the same direction as ordinary least squares even in very large samples. The authors propose a split-sample instrumental variables estimator that is not biased toward ordinary least squares. Split-sample instrumental variables uses one-half of a sample to estimate parameters of the first-stage equation. Estimated first-stage parameters are then used to construct fitted values and second-stage parameter estimates in the other half sample.…

一般责任法律改革与保险市场结果的分布AI 解读

Many states enacted tort liability reform laws in the late 1980s to limit liability costs and stabilize insurance markets. This paper uses firm-level data from two states that enacted reforms over the 1984-91 period--New York and Colorado--to assess their effects. The liability insurance performance in Pennsylvania and Kentucky--two states that did not adopt reforms--provides a reference point for how insurance markets might have performed. The quantile regression models…

经济学中的自然实验与准实验AI 解读

Using research designs patterned after randomized experiments, many recent economic studies examine outcome measures for treatment groups and comparison groups that are not randomly assigned. By using variation in explanatory variables generated by changes in state laws, government draft mechanisms, or other means, these studies obtain variation that is readily examined and is plausibly exogenous. This article describes the advantages of these studies and suggests how they…

高中额外数学与科学课程对青年男女的收益AI 解读

This paper examines the effects of taking more high school math and science classes on wages, the likelihood of entering a technical job or a job traditional for one's sex, and the likelihood of choosing a technical college major or a major traditional for one's sex. Results from two data sets show that taking more high school math increases wages and increases the likelihood of entering technical and nontraditional fields for female college graduates. No significant impact…

用于多重最优、不可微及其他不规则估计问题的遗传算法AI 解读

The genetic algorithm is examined as a method for solving optimization problems in econometric estimation. It does not restrict either the form or regulalrity of the objective function, allows a reasonbly large parameter space, and does not rely on a point-to-point search. The performance is evaluated through two sets of experiments on standard test problems as well as econometric problems from the literature. First, alternative genetic algorithms are contrasted that vary…

通货膨胀率的长记忆：国际证据AI 解读

The authors examine monthly inflation rates of five industrial countries. The application of tests against stationarity as well as tests against a unit root yield contradictory results. Thus, fractional integration allowing for long memory is a plausible model. The authors discuss and apply the periodogram regression in order to estimate the difference parameters. For all countries, the authors find estimates significantly different from one as well as from zero. This is…

股票收益与波动率国际传导的多变量 GARCH 模型：美国与加拿大AI 解读

This study examines the short-run dynamics of returns and volatility for stocks traded on the New York and Toronto stock exchanges. The main finding is that inferences about the magnitude and persistence of return innovations that originate in either market and that transmit to the other market depend importantly on how the cross-market dynamics in volatility are modeled. Also, much weaker cross-market dynamics in returns and volatility prevail during later subperiods and…

异方差下的前沿估计与企业特定无效率测度AI 解读

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate a straightforward and useful method for addressing the problem of heteroscedasticity in the estmation of frontiers. A heteroscedastic cost frontier model is developed and estimated using bank cost data similar to that used by G. D. Ferrier and C. A. K. Lovell (1990). The authors' results show dramatic changes in the estimated cost frontier and in the inefficieny measures when accounting for heteroscedasticity in the estimation…

回归变量的非平稳性与实际利率行为检验AI 解读

This paper reexamines tests on the behavior of real interest rates in light of recent results which indicate that regressors are nonstationary and not strictly exogenous. Strong rejections of constancy of real interest rates that have been found previously in the literature are confirmed here. However, although there is some evidence here that real rates are negatively correlated with expected inflation, this result is not as strong as has been indicated by previous…

ARIMA 模型识别中不同定阶准则的比较AI 解读

The small-sample performance of several order-determination criteria for identification of ARIMA models is compared using simulated and economic data. The authors also demonstrate how the residual white-noise autoregressive order-determination criterion can be used to identify unit roots in nonstationary data.

计量经济学中的随机化检验AI 解读

Numerous shufflings of data produce a distribution of test-statistic values that can be used to assess the degree to which the test-statistic value produced by the actual data is unusual. Because this controversial randomization-testing methodology, made practical by the computer revolution, has begun to appear in applied econometric studies, econometricians should become familiar with its mechanics, rationale, and interpretation, all of which are quite different from the…

协整系统中共同长记忆成分的估计AI 解读

The study of cointegration in large systems requires a reduction of their dimensionality. To achieve this, we propose to obtain the I(1) common factors in every subsystem and then analyze cointegration among them. In this article, a new way of estimating common long-memory components of a cointegrated system is proposed. The identification of these I(1) common factors is achieved by imposing that they be linear combinations of the original variables Xt , and that the…

GARCH(1,1) 与 IGARCH(1,1) 最大似然估计量的有限样本性质：蒙特卡洛考察AI 解读

This paper compares GARCH(1,1) and IGARCH(1,1) models via a Monte Carlo study of the finite sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and related test statistics. While the asymptotic distribution is well approximated by the estimated t statistics, other commonly used statistics do not behave as well. In addition, the estimators themselves are skewed in small samples. For the null hypothesis of IGARCH(1,1), Wald tests typically have the best size while the…

加性异常值对单位根与协整检验的影响AI 解读

This paper discusses the properties of the univariate Dickey-Fuller test and the Johansen test for the cointegrating rank when there exist additive outlying observations in the time series. The authors provide analytical as well as numerical evidence that additive outliners may produce spurious stationarity. The results easily generalize to models with 'temporary change' outliers. Through an empirical example, the authors discuss how additive and temporary change outliers…

审计差错金额的组合界：Hoeffding 不等式与自助法AI 解读

This paper describes a simulation study of a nonparametric bound on the total error amount in an auditing population. The bound is a combination of a bootstrap approximation of the bound generated by Hoeffding's inequality and a modified nonparametric bootstrap-t method. For the 95 percent confidence level and size 120, the combined bound is reliable over a wide range of simulated study populations and is on average 13 percent smaller than the benchmark Stringer bound based…

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单位根检验准则的比较AI 解读

The ordinary least squares estimator has been widely used for testing the unit-root hypothesis in autoregressive processes. Recently, several new criteria, based on maximum likelihood and weighted symmetric estimators, have been proposed. In this article, the authors describe several different test criteria. Results from Monte Carlo studies that compare the power of the different test criteria indicate that the new tests are more powerful against the stationary alternative.…

递增阶梯电价下的居民用电需求：来自受控实验的证据AI 解读

Block-rate structures are used extensively in public-utility pricing, including residential electricity. Estimating price elasticities in this context is complicated by the resulting nonlinearity of the consumer's budget constraint. This article estimates the demand for electricity under inverted block rates using data from a residential rate experiment. The study provides an opportunity to obtain short-run price elasticities in an experimental setting and to compare…