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区域股票市场的共同可预测成分AI 解读

This paper employs recently developed multivariate methods to study the predictability of international stock market returns. The authors find evidence of significant common predictable components within the Pacific, the European, and the North American stock markets using region-specific instrumental variables. The degree of predictability of these common movements, however, varies across regional markets and across subperiods. Results indicate that only North American…

GARCH 模型中条件波动率的脉冲响应函数AI 解读

This paper defines and analyzes the impulse response function for conditional volatility in GARCH models. It first derives the function from a vector autoregressive and moving average representation of the GARCH models and obtains the corresponding standard errors from the first-order derivatives of the function and the covariance matrix of the estimated parameters. The paper then employs a Monte Carlo study to assess the finite sample properties of the standard errors and…

结构变化检验的近似渐近 p 值AI 解读

Numerical approximations to the asymptotic distributions of recently proposed tests for structural change are presented. This enables easy yet accurate calculation of asymptotic p-values. Keywords: parameter stability, changepoint models

使用收缩估计量从面板数据估计能源需求的短期与长期弹性AI 解读

This article discusses the problem of obtaining short-run and long-run elasticities of energy demand for each of 49 states in the United States using data for 21 years. Estimation using the time series data by each state gave several wrong signs for the coefficients. Estimation using pooled data was not valid because the hypothesis of homogeneity of the coefficients was rejected. Shrinkage estimators gave more reasonable results. The article presents in a unified framework…

固定效应与预定工具变量下计数面板模型的GMM估计AI 解读

The 'traditional' approach to the estimation of count panel data models with fixed effects is the conditional maximum-likelihood estimator. This paper proposed a GMM estimator for count panel data models with fixed effects, based on a transformation of the conditional mean specification, that is consistent even when the explanatory variables are predetermined. Two applications are discussed: the relationship between patents and R&D expenditures and the explanation of…

通过尾部厚度估计稳定指数α：一项批评AI 解读

A generalized Pareto or simple Pareto tail-index estimate above 2 has frequently been cited as evidence against infinite-variance stable distributions. It is demonstrated that this inference is invalid; tail index estimates greater than 2 are to be expected for stable distributions with α as low as 1.65. The nonregular distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic for a null of normality and an alternative of symmetric stability is tabulated by Monte Carlo methods and…

结构变化检验的近似渐近p值AI 解读

Numerical approximations to the asymptotic distributions of recently proposed tests for structural change are presented. This enables easy yet accurate calculation of asymptotic p values. A GAUSS program is available to perform the computations.

汇率鞅假设的联合方差比检验AI 解读

There is considerable interest as to whether exchange races behave like martingales. Liu and He (1991) test the martingale hypothesis for exchange rates using the variance ratio methodology of Lo and MacKinlay (1988). They find that exchange rates have violated martingale property since the inception of floating rates in 1973. However, Liu and He did not consider the joint implications of their tests, In this paper, we reassess the martingale hypothesis for exchange rates…

ARCH与双线性模型：非线性依赖的竞争解释AI 解读

This paper consider whether the wide acceptance of ARCH models may be at the expense of other nonlinear processes, such as bilinear models. The authors first pose a joint test for ARCH and bilinearity. A nonnested test is then suggested. The tests are then applied to three series. When GARCH models are taken as the null hypothesis, the authors fail to reject it. However, when bilinearity is taken as the null, it is rejected in two cases. Also, an out-of-sample forecasting…

GARCH过程中的马尔可夫转换与股市波动率均值回归AI 解读

This article introduces four models of conditional heteroscedasticity that contain Markov-switching parameters to examine their multiperiod stock-market volatility forecasts as predictions of options-implied volatilities. The volatility model that best predicts the behavior of the options-implied volatilities allows the Student-t degrees-of-freedom parameter to switch such that the conditional variance and kurtosis are subject to discrete shifts. The half-life of the most…

经济时间序列能通过差分变得平稳吗？AI 解读

This paper considers a class of nonstationary varying coefficient autoregressive models which allow stochastic variability in the autoregressive root. It is argued that such models provide a better description of the behaviour of macroeconomic variables than fixed unit root autoregressive models as they allow more general forms of nonstationarity. We construct a test of the null hypothesis of a fixed unit root against the alternative of a fixed unit root against the…

彩池博彩市场中预期假说的半参数（分布无关）检验AI 解读

The expectations hypothesis maintains that a current forward or futures price should be an unbiased forecast of the expected future price. This paper tests the expectations hypothesis in the parimutuel gambling market for greyhound racing parametric and semiparametric estimators. Parimutuel gambling markets are similar to speculative asset markets in many regards. Conventional maximum likelihood tests of asset pricing require a priori specification of the statistical…

资产收益非对称随机波动率模型的估计AI 解读

A stochastic volatility model may be estimated by a quasi-maximum likelihood procedure by transforming to a linear state space form. The method is extended to handle correlation between the two disturbances in the model and applied to data on stock returns.

随机贴现因子的贝叶斯估计AI 解读

This article provides a Bayesian method of estimating the marginal posterior distributions for stochastic discount factors associated with observed asset returns. These estimates can be used to provide measures of fit for asset pricing models and to identify broad features of the characteristics that should be explained. These measures of fit can be used to supplement model evaluation exercises based on L. P. Hansen-R. Jagannathan bounds.

福利经济学中线性回归的使用AI 解读

It is argued that ordinary least squares regression coefficients are weighted average of slopes between adjacent sample points. When applied to linear regressions, with income as the independent variable, the coefficients depend heavily on the slopes of high income groups. This may be undesirable, if the regression is used for welfare analysis, because the marginal propensities to consume attributed to the commodities are determined by the high-income groups. Alternative…

休闲出游次数模型中的过多零值AI 解读

This article develops a modeling approach for a count data set for recreational boating trips that shows a frequency of zero counts significantly higher than that expected for Poisson distributed data. As alternatives to the Poisson regression, the authors consider several parametric and semiparametric mixed and modified Poisson models. The analysis suggests that the negative binomial hurdles model, which allows for overdispersion and also accommodates the presence of…

随机生产前沿模型的半参数估计AI 解读

This paper extends the linear stochastic frontier model proposed by D. J. Aigner, C. A. K. Lovell, and P. Schmidt (1977) to a semiparametric frontier model in which the functional form of the production frontier is unspecified and the distributions of the composite error terms are of known form. Pseudo-likelihood estimators of the parameters characterizing the two error terms of the model are constructed based on kernel estimation of the conditional mean function. The Monte…

通过整合多个模型预测转折点AI 解读

A new method for forming composite turning point (or other qualitative) forecasts is proposed. Rather than forming composite forecasts by the standard Bayesian approach with weights proportional to each model's posterior odds, weights are assigned to the individual models in proportion to the probability of each model's having the correct turning point prediction. These probabilities are generated by logit models estimated with data on the models' past turning point…

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协方差结构 GMM 估计的小样本偏差AI 解读

The authors examine the small sample properties of the generalized method of moments estimator applied to models of covariance structures, where it is commonly known as the optimal minimum distance (OMD) estimator. They find that OMD is almost always biased downward in absolute value. The bias arises because sampling errors in the second moments are correlated with sampling errors in the weighting matrix used by OMD. Furthermore, OMD is usually dominated by equally weighted…

基于 GMM 的 Wald 检验的小样本性质AI 解读

This article assesses the small-sample properties of generalized-method-of-moments-based Wald statistics by using (a) a vector white-noise process and (b) an equilibrium business-cycle model as the data-generating mechanisms. In many cases, the small-sample size of the Wald tests exceeds its asymptotic size and increases sharply with the number of hypotheses being jointly tested. We argue that this is mostly due to difficulty in estimating the spectral-density matrix of the…

用于经济周期分析的 GMM 小样本性质AI 解读

We investigate, by Monte Carlo methods, the finite-sample properties of generalized method of moment procedures for conducting inference about statistics that are of interest in the business-cycle literature. These statistics include the second moments of data filtered using the first-difference and Hodrick–Prescott filters, and they include statistics for evaluating model fit. Our results indicate that, for the procedures considered, the existing asymptotic theory is not a…