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同时包含跳跃与条件异方差的模型：估计与检验AI 解读

In this article we develop a test for the hypothesis that a series (observed in discrete time) is generated by a diffusion process. This test is based on an overidentifying relation between variance and kurtosis parameters that holds for generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic diffusions. The proposed test is not specific to a particular data frequency and clearly indicates the presence of jumps in dollar exchange rates. To assess the size and intensity of the…

结构不稳定性与库存的生产平滑模型AI 解读

The production-smoothing model of inventories implies that inventories, labor inputs, sales, and factor input prices are cointegrated if sales and factor prices are I(1) with one cointegrating vector for each state variable held. These propositions are tested in six nondurable-goods industries. All industries provide evidence of cointegration. Fewer quasi-fixed factors are found than previous research often assumed. Estimates of cointegrating vectors provide implausible…

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预测涵盖检验AI 解读

The authors consider the situation in which two forecasts of the same variable are available. The possibility exists of forming a combined forecast as a weighted average of the individual ones and estimation the weights that should be optimally attached to each forecast. If the entire weight should optimally be associated with one forecast, that forecast is said to encompass the other. A natural test for forecast encompassing is based on least squares regression. The authors…

具有马尔可夫状态切换的随机波动模型AI 解读

This article presents a new way of modeling time-varying volatility. We generalize the usual stochastic volatility models to encompass regime-switching properties. The unobserved state variables are governed by a first-order Markov process. Bayesian estimators are constructed by Gibbs sampling. High-, medium- and low-volatility states are identified for the Standard and Poor's 500 weekly return data. Persistence in volatility is explained by the persistence in the low- and…

股票收益中的非线性与非平稳性AI 解读

This article addresses the question of whether recent findings of nonlinearities in high-frequency financial time series have been contaminated by possible shifts in the distribution of the data. It applies a recursive version of the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman statistic to daily data on two stock-market indexes between January 1980 and December 1990. It is shown that October 1987 is highly influential in the characterization of the stock-market dynamics and appears to…

市场失灵剖析：纽约证券交易所停牌（1974—1988）AI 解读

A cross-sectional analysis of all trading suspensions that occurred during the period 1974–1988 in the New York Stock Exchange reveals that, though the desire to maintain price continuity remains an important motivation to suspend trade, inventory-imbalance fears are pronounced for large firms. Adverse-selection concerns afflict all news-related suspensions irrespective of firm size. Furthermore, we find substitutability among the various dimensions of liquidity: Although…

二元因变量方程的一种新拟合优度指标AI 解读

The econometrics literature contains many alternative measures of goodness of fit, roughly analogous to R-squared, for use with equations with dichotomous dependent variables. There is, however, no consensus as to the measures' relative merits or about which ones should be reported in empirical work. This article proposes a new measure that possesses several useful properties that the other measures lack. The new measure may be interpreted intuitively in a similar way to…

典型求职搜寻模型的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

Bayesian analysis for a simple but widely applied dynamic programming model is obtained. The setting is the prototypal job-search model. The general case of wage and duration data, with potential censoring, is studied. The optimality condition implied by the dynamic programming setup is fully imposed. The posterior distribution reveals a 'ridge' reflecting the characteristic nonstandard nature of the inference problem. Marginal distributions and moments are obtained in a…

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X-12-ARIMA 季节调整程序的新功能与方法AI 解读

X-12-ARIMA is the Census Bureau's new seasonal-adjustment program. It provides four types of enhancements to X-ll-ARIMA—(1) alternative seasonal, trading-day, and holiday effect adjustment capabilities that include adjustments for effects estimated with user-defined regressors; additional seasonal and trend filter options; and an alternative seasonal-trend-irregular decomposition; (2) new diagnostics of the quality and stability of the adjustments achieved under the options…

函数形式的选择：一项蒙特卡洛实验的总结AI 解读

The use of flexible functional forms is a standard practice in applied econometrics. Many flexible forms have been proposed. In this study, the authors investigate the behavior of three of them--the translog, the symmetric McFadden, and the symmetric generalized Barnett. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, they assess the ability of these forms to test theoretical properties and to measure technological characteristics.

动态二元混合模型：价格与交易量行为的建模AI 解读

Bivariate mixture models have been used to explain the stochastic behavior of daily price changes and trading volume on financial markets. In this class of models, price changes and volume follow a mixture of bivariate distributions with the unobservable number of price-relevant information serving as the mixing variable. The time series behavior of this mixing variable determines the dynamics of the price-volume system. In this article, bivariate mixture specifications with…

专利数据分析：混合泊松回归模型方法AI 解读

Count-data models are used to analyze the relationship between patents and research and development spending at the firm level, accounting for overdispersion using a finite mixed Poisson regression model with covariates in both Poisson rates and mixing probabilities. Maximum likelihood estimation using the EM and quasi-Newton algorithms is discussed. Monte Carlo studies suggest that (a) penalized likelihood criteria are a reliable basis for model selection and can be used to…

丹麦制造业出口价格与数量关系的建模AI 解读

This article develops a structural econometric model for Danish manufacturing exports. The cointegrating relations of the model are determined to be a markup pricing relation and an export demand relation, whereas the short-run structure shows pricing-to-market effects. Both long-run and short-run pricing relations are found to be empirically constant during a period of large exchange-rate variations. The model isolates the main interactions between the foreign-trade sector,…

无需估计序列相关参数的均值突变检验AI 解读

Tests for detecting a shift in the mean of univariate time series that do not require estimation of serial-correlation parameters are proposed. The statistics are valid whether the errors are stationary or have a unit root. The date of the shift may be known or unknown. The statics are based on a simple transformation of the data and are functions of partial sums of the data. These so-called partial sum statistics are shown to be asymptotically invariant to…

稳定化筛式抽样：点估计量分析AI 解读

A modification of sieve sampling is proposed that returns a constant sample size. It is a scheme that selects line items with probability proportional to size (PPS) and nearly without replacement. An unbiased estimator of the total error amount is presented and its variance derived. Conditions under which the scheme is more efficient than sieve sampling and than PPS with replacement sampling are given.