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GMM 中的弱工具变量稳健检验与新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线AI 解读

We discuss weak instrument robust statistics in GMM for testing hypotheses on the full parameter vector or on subsets of the parameters. We use these test procedures to reexamine the evidence on the new Keynesian Phillips curve model. We find that U.S. postwar data are consistent with the view that inflation dynamics are predominantly forward-looking, but we cannot rule out the presence of considerable backward-looking dynamics. Moreover, the Phillips curve has become…

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评论AI 解读

Comment on "Weak instrument robust tests in GMM and the new Keynesian Phillips curve", Frank Kleibergen, Sophocles Mavroeidis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. July 1, 2009, 27(3): 293-311. doi:10.1198/jbes.2009.08280.

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含单整或平稳噪声的趋势变化检验AI 解读

We consider testing for structural changes in the trend function of a time series without any prior knowledge of whether the noise component is stationary or integrated. Following Perron and Yabu (2009), we consider a quasi-feasible generalized least squares procedure that uses a super-efficient estimate of the sum of the autoregressive parameters αwhen α=1. This allows tests of basically the same size with stationary or integrated noise regardless of whether the break is…

美国商业银行效率与生产率变化的稳健非参数分位数估计：1985—2004年AI 解读

This article uses a new nonparametric, unconditional, hyperbolic order-αquantile estimator to construct a hyperbolic version of the Malmquist index. Unlike traditional nonparametric efficiency estimators, the new estimator is both robust to data outliers and has a root-n convergence rate. We use this estimator to examine changes in the efficiency and productivity of U.S. banks between 1985 and 2004. We find that larger banks experienced larger efficiency and productivity…

解释变量删失导致的估计偏差AI 解读

We study the bias that arises from using censored regressors in estimation of linear models. We present results on bias in ordinary least aquares (OLS) regression estimators with exogenous censoring and in instrumental variable (IV) estimators when the censored regressor is endogenous. Bound censoring such as top-coding results in expansion bias, or effects that are too large. Independent censoring results in bias that varies with the estimation method—attenuation bias in…

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倾向得分模型的设定：贸易政策分析中的应用AI 解读

The use of propensity score methods for program evaluation with nonexperimental data typically requires that the propensity score be estimated, often with a model whose specification is unknown. Although theoretical results suggest that estimators using more flexible propensity score specifications perform better, this has not filtered into applied research. Here we provide Monte Carlo evidence indicating benefits of overspecifying the propensity score that are robust across…

构建贝叶斯最优选择实验设计的高效算法AI 解读

While Bayesian - and -optimal designs for the multinomial logit model have been shown to have better predictive performance than Bayesian - and -optimal designs, the algorithms for generating them have been too slow for commercial use. In this article, we present a much faster algorithm for generating Bayesian optimal designs for all four criteria while simultaneously improving the statistical efficiency of the designs. We also show how to augment a choice design allowing…

股票收益与预期商业状况：半个世纪的直接证据AI 解读

Using survey data, we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions consistently affect expected excess returns in a counter-cyclical fashion. Moreover, inclusion of expected business conditions in otherwise-standard predictive return regressions substantially reduce the explanatory power of the conventional financial predictors, including the dividend yield, default premium, and term premium,…

通过已实现波动率度量评估市场微观结构效应：道琼斯工业平均指数成分股应用AI 解读

Transaction prices of financial assets are contaminated by market microstructure effects. This is particularly relevant when estimating volatility using high frequency data. In this article, we assess statistically the effect of microstructure noise on volatility estimators, and test the hypothesis that its variance is independent of the sampling frequency. We provide evidence based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks. We find that noise has a statistically…

德国失业补偿制度改革：基于行政登记数据的非参数界限分析AI 解读

Economic theory suggests that an extension of the maximum length of entitlement for unemployment benefits increases the duration of unemployment. Empirical results for the reform of the unemployment compensation system in Germany during the 1980s are less clear. The analysis in this article is motivated by recent developments in econometrics for partial identification. We use extensive administrative data with the drawback that we can only observe lower and upper bounds for…

非线性固定效应面板模型中降低偏差的惩罚函数方法AI 解读

We consider estimation of nonlinear panel data models with individual specific fixed effects. Estimation of these models is complicated since estimation of the fixed effects when the time dimension is short generally results in inconsistent estimates of all model parameters. We present a penalized objective function that reduces the bias in the resulting point estimates. The penalty function is simple to construct and requires no modification for models with multiple…

金融收益可预测性的非参数回溯检验与监测AI 解读

We develop and evaluate sequential testing tools for a class of nonparametric tests for predictability of financial returns that include, in particular, the directional accuracy and excess profitability tests. Our sequential methods consider in a unified framework both retrospection of a historical sample and monitoring newly arriving data. To this end, we focus on linear monitoring boundaries that are continuations of horizontal lines corresponding to retrospective critical…

非参数相关随机效应模型中边际效应的识别AI 解读

In this article, we consider identification and estimation of average marginal effects in a correlated random effects model without imposing functional form assumptions on the structural likelihood or the mixing distribution. Identification is achieved through imposing that the mixing distribution depends on observed covariates only through an index function. We leave the functional form of the index function unrestricted subject to smoothness conditions. We present…

利用时变Copula刻画非齐次依赖关系AI 解读

Measuring dependence in multivariate time series is tantamount to modeling its dynamic structure in space and time. In risk management, the nonnormal behavior of most financial time series calls for non-Gaussian dependences. The correct modeling of non-Gaussian dependences is, therefore, a key issue in the analysis of multivariate time series. In this article we use copula functions with adaptively estimated time-varying parameters for modeling the distribution of returns.…

混合类别与连续协变量下平均处理效应的有效估计AI 解读

In this article, we consider the nonparametric estimation of average treatment effects when there exist mixed categorical and continuous covariates. One distinguishing feature of the approach presented herein is the use of kernel smoothing for both the continuous and the discrete covariates. This approach, together with the cross-validation method. which we use for selecting the smoothing parameters, has the ability to automatically remove irrelevant covariates. We establish…

半非参数分布的参数性质及其在期权估值中的应用AI 解读

We derive the statistical properties of the semi-nonparametric (SNP) densities of Gallant and Nychka (1987). We show that these densities, which are always positive, are more flexible than truncated Gram–Charlier expansions with positivity restrictions. We use the SNP densities for financial derivatives valuation. We relate real and risk-neutral measures, obtain closed-form prices for European options, and analyze the semiparametric properties of our pricing model. In an…

损失分布的局部变换核密度估计AI 解读

We develop a tailor-made semiparametric asymmetric kernel density estimator for the estimation of actuarial loss distributions. The estimator is obtained by transforming the data with the generalized Champernowne distribution initially fitted to the data. Then the density of the transformed data is estimated by use of local asymmetric kernel methods to obtain superior estimation properties in the tails. We find in a vast simulation study that the proposed semiparametric…

历史数据对预测股票收益长期分布有多大用处？AI 解读

We provide an approach to forecasting the long-run (unconditional) distribution of equity returns making optimal use of historical data in the presence of structural breaks. Our focus is on learning about breaks in real time and assessing their impact on out-of-sample density forecasts. Forecasts use a probability-weighted average of submodels, each of which is estimated over a different history of data. The empirical results strongly reject ignoring structural change or…

劳动力市场项目评价中的序贯因果模型AI 解读

This article reviews inverse selection probability weighting to estimate dynamic causal effects. A distribution theory based on sequential generalized method of moments estimation is proposed and the method is applied to a reevaluation of some parts of the Swiss active labor market policy to obtain new results and discuss several issues about the implementation of the estimation procedure.