论文检索

对Lazarus等《HAR推断：实践建议》的评论AI 解读

This excellent paper proposes two methods for computing a long-run variance: equally weighted cosines (EWC) and Bartlett/Newey-West (NW). The methods by assumption are not data-dependent; the user ...

对《HAR 推断：实践建议》的评论AI 解读

Inference robust to variance and covariance features of the data has become the standard practice in empirical economics. Robust inference in the presence of heteroscedasticity is straightforward a...

异方差与自相关稳健推断：实践建议AI 解读

The classic papers by Newey and West (1987) and Andrews (1991) spurred a large body of work on how to improve heteroscedasticity- and autocorrelation-robust (HAR) inference in time series regression. This literature finds that using a larger-than-usual truncation parameter to estimate the long-run variance, combined with Kiefer-Vogelsang (2002, 2005) fixed-b critical values, can substantially reduce size distortions, at only a modest cost in (size-adjusted) power. Empirical…

评论AI 解读

I would like to congratulate the authors (Lazarus, Lewis, Stock, and Watson, LLSW hereafter) for the timely and authoritative practical recommendations for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation ro...

企业主能否形成准确反事实？征询处理组与对照组对另一处理状态下结果的信念AI 解读

A survey of participants in a large-scale business plan competition experiment, in which winners received an average of U.S. $50,000 each, is used to elicit ex-post beliefs about what the outcomes would have been in the alternative treatment status. Participants are asked the percent chance they would be operating a firm, and the number of employees and monthly sales they would have, had their treatment status been reversed. The study finds the control group to have…

网络形成的半参数分析AI 解读

We consider a statistical model for directed network formation that features both node-specific parameters that capture degree heterogeneity and common parameters that reflect homophily among nodes. The goal is to perform statistical inference on the homophily parameters while treating the node-specific parameters as fixed effects. Jointly estimating all parameters leads to incidental-parameter bias and incorrect inference. As an alternative, we develop an approach based on…

泊松驱动的平稳马尔可夫模型AI 解读

We propose a simple yet powerful method to construct strictly stationary Markovian models with given but arbitrary invariant distributions. The idea is based on a Poisson-type transform modulating the dependence structure in the model. An appealing feature of our approach is the possibility to control the underlying transition probabilities and, therefore, incorporate them within standard estimation methods. Given the resulting representation of the transition density, a…

基于频域的协整阶数估计与检验AI 解读

This article proposes a method to estimate the degree of cointegration in bivariate series and suggests a test statistic for testing noncointegration based on the determinant of the spectral density matrix for the frequencies close to zero. In the study, series are assumed to be I(d), 0 < d ⩽ 1, with parameter d supposed to be known. In this context, the order of integration of the error series is I(d − b), b ∈ [0, d]. Besides, the determinant of the spectral density matrix…

利用价格分布的搜寻成本最小距离估计AI 解读

It has been shown that equilibrium restrictions in a search model can be used to identify quantiles of the search cost distribution from observedprices alone. These quantiles can be difficult to estimate in practice. This article uses a minimum distance approach to estimate them that is easy to compute. A version of our estimator is a solution to a nonlinear least-square problem that can be straightforwardly programmed on softwares such as STATA. We show our estimator is…

固定效应模型中聚类稳健方差估计与假设检验的小样本方法AI 解读

In panel data models and other regressions with unobserved effects, fixed effects estimation is often paired with cluster-robust variance estimation (CRVE) to account for heteroscedasticity and un-modeled dependence among the errors. Although asymptotically consistent, CRVE can be biased downward when the number of clusters is small, leading to hypothesis tests with rejection rates that are too high. More accurate tests can be constructed using bias-reduced linearization…

马尔可夫转换模型的最优预测AI 解读

We derive forecasts for Markov switching models that are optimal in the mean square forecast error (MSFE) sense by means of weighting observations. We provide analytic expressions of the weights conditional on the Markov states and conditional on state probabilities. This allows us to study the effect of uncertainty around states on forecasts. It emerges that, even in large samples, forecasting performance increases substantially when the construction of optimal weights…

对称性条件下的条件均值独立检验AI 解读

Conditional mean independence (CMI) is one of the most widely used assumptions in the treatment effect literature to achieve model identification. We propose a Kolmogorov–Smirnov-type statistic to test CMI under a specific symmetry condition. We also propose a bootstrap procedure to obtain the p-values and critical values that are required to carry out the test. Results from a simulation study suggest that our test can work very well even in small to moderately sized…

波动率相关交易所交易资产：计量经济学研究AI 解读

We develop a theoretical framework for covariance stationary but persistent positively valued processes which combines a semi-nonparametric expansion of the Gamma distribution with a component version of the multiplicative error model. Our conditional mean assumption allows for slow, possibly nonmonotonic mean-reversion, while our distribution assumption provides more flexibility than a traditional Laguerre expansion while preserving positivity of the density. We apply our…

适用于厚尾已实现协方差与收益的新 HEAVY 模型AI 解读

We develop a new score-driven model for the joint dynamics of fat-tailed realized covariance matrix observations and daily returns. The score dynamics for the unobserved true covariance matrix are robust to outliers and incidental large observations in both types of data by assuming a matrix-F distribution for the realized covariance measures and a multivariate Student's t distribution for the daily returns. The filter for the unknown covariance matrix has a computationally…

扫描数据价格指数：处理若干尚未解决的问题AI 解读

Scanner data are increasingly being used in the calculation of price indexes such as the CPI. The preeminent approach is the RYGEKS method (Ivancic, Diewert and Fox 2011). This uses multilateral methods to construct price parities across a rolling year then links these to construct a nonrevisable index. While this approach performs well there remain some unresolved issues, in particular; the optimal window length and the linking method. In this note, these questions are…

主观生存曲线的获取：部分识别的启示AI 解读

When analyzing data on subjective expectations of continuous outcomes, researchers have access to a limited number of reported probabilities for each respondent from which to construct complete distribution functions. Moreover, reported probabilities may be rounded and thus not equal to true beliefs. Using survival expectations elicited from a representative sample from the Netherlands, we investigate what can be learned if we take these two sources of missing information…

业绩费与资产收益可预测性的渐近推断AI 解读

In this article, we provide analytical, simulation, and empirical evidence on a test of equal economic value from competing predictive models of asset returns. We define economic value using the concept of a performance fee—the amount an investor would be willing to pay to have access to an alternative predictive model used to make investment decisions. We establish that this fee can be asymptotically normal under modest assumptions. Monte Carlo evidence shows that our test…

货币政策效应的半参数估计：重新审视“推绳子”理论AI 解读

We develop flexible semiparametric time series methods for the estimation of the causal effect of monetary policy on macroeconomic aggregates. Our estimator captures the average causal response to discrete policy interventions in a macrodynamic setting, without the need for assumptions about the process generating macroeconomic outcomes. The proposed estimation strategy, based on propensity score weighting, easily accommodates asymmetric and nonlinear responses. Using this…

基于最小距离的实用 Kolmogorov–Smirnov 检验：韩国顶端收入份额的应用AI 解读

We study Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests for evaluating distributional hypotheses where unknown parameters need to be fitted. Following the work of Pollard (1980), our approach uses a Cramér–von Mises minimum distance estimator for parameter estimation. The asymptotic null distribution of the resulting test statistic is represented by invariance principle arguments as a functional of a Brownian bridge in a simple regression format for which asymptotic critical…

含噪观测下 Hurst 参数的估计AI 解读

It is widely accepted that some financial data exhibit long memory or long dependence, and that the observed data usually possess noise. In the continuous time situation, the factional Brownian motion BH and its extension are an important class of models to characterize the long memory or short memory of data, and Hurst parameter H is an index to describe the degree of dependence. In this article, we estimate the Hurst parameter of a discretely sampled fractional integral…

分组数据下收入分布估计与检验的统一方法AI 解读

We propose a unified approach that is flexibly applicable to various types of grouped data for estimating and testing parametric income distributions. To simplify the use of our approach, we also provide a parametric bootstrap method and show its asymptotic validity. We also compare this approach with existing methods for grouped income data, and assess their finite-sample performance by a Monte Carlo simulation. For empirical demonstrations, we apply our approach to…

工具变量识别不同局部平均处理效应时的 2SLS 一致方差估计量AI 解读

Under treatment effect heterogeneity, an instrument identifies the instrument-specific local average treatment effect (LATE). With multiple instruments, two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimand is a weighted average of different LATEs. What is often overlooked in the literature is that the postulated moment condition evaluated at the 2SLS estimand does not hold unless those LATEs are the same. If so, the conventional heteroscedasticity-robust variance estimator would be…

一般趋势与横截面相关的固定 T 面板单位根推断AI 解读

This article proposes a new panel unit root test based on the generalized method of moments approach for panels with a possibly small number of time periods, T, and a large number of cross-sectional units, N. In the model that we consider the deterministic trend function is essentially unrestricted and the errors obey a multifactor structure that allows for rich forms of unobserved heterogeneity. In spite of these allowances, the GMM estimator considered is shown to be…

非参数加性工具变量估计：组收缩估计视角AI 解读

In this article, we study a nonparametric approach regarding a general nonlinear reduced form equation to achieve a better approximation of the optimal instrument. Accordingly, we propose the nonparametric additive instrumental variable estimator (NAIVE) with the adaptive group Lasso. We theoretically demonstrate that the proposed estimator is root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. The adaptive group Lasso helps us select the valid instruments while the dimensionality…