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含随机效应的自回归面板有序 Probit 模型的复合似然估计AI 解读

Modeling and estimating autocorrelated discrete data can be challenging. In this article, we use an autoregressive panel ordered probit model where the serial correlation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a nonlinear model, the presence of a lagged latent variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals. To tackle this problem, we use composite likelihoods that involve a much lower…

非参数高频估计量的推断及金融贝塔时变性的应用AI 解读

We consider the problem of conducting inference on nonparametric high-frequency estimators without knowing their asymptotic variances. We prove that a multivariate subsampling method achieves this goal under general conditions that were not previously available in the literature. By construction, the subsampling method delivers estimates of the variance-covariance matrices that are always positive semidefinite. Our simulation study indicates that the subsampling method is…

有技能共同基金的筛选：依赖情形下的错误发现控制AI 解读

Selecting skilled mutual funds through the multiple testing framework has received increasing attention from finance researchers and statisticians. The intercept α of Carhart four-factor model is commonly used to measure the true performance of mutual funds, and positive α’s are considered as skilled. We observe that the standardized ordinary least-square estimates of α’s across the funds possess strong dependence and nonnormality structures, indicating that the conventional…

美国月度国内生产总值的协调估计AI 解读

In the United States, income and expenditure-side estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) (GDPI and GDPE) measure “true” GDP with error and are available at a quarterly frequency. Methods exist for using these proxies to produce reconciled quarterly estimates of true GDP. In this paper, we extend these methods to provide reconciled historical true GDP estimates at a monthly frequency. We do this using a Bayesian mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) involving…

贝叶斯动态张量回归AI 解读

High- and multi-dimensional array data are becoming increasingly available. They admit a natural representation as tensors and call for appropriate statistical tools. We propose a new linear autoregressive tensor process (ART) for tensor-valued data, that encompasses some well-known time series models as special cases. We study its properties and derive the associated impulse response function. We exploit the PARAFAC low-rank decomposition for providing a parsimonious…

具有主导单元的空间自回归模型的 QML 与有效 GMM 估计AI 解读

This article investigates QML and GMM estimation of spatial autoregressive (SAR) models in which the column sums of the spatial weights matrix might not be uniformly bounded. We develop a central limit theorem in which the number of columns with unbounded sums can be finite or infinite and the magnitude of their column sums can be O(nδ) if δ<1. Asymptotic distributions of QML and GMM estimators are derived under this setting, including the GMM estimators with the best linear…

实际油价时变预测不确定性与风险的量化AI 解读

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing for sequentially updating of time-varying combination weights, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying…

局部平稳的乘法波动率建模AI 解读

In this article, we study a semiparametric multiplicative volatility model, which splits up into a nonparametric part and a parametric GARCH component. The nonparametric part is modeled as a product of a deterministic time trend component and of further components that depend on stochastic regressors. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the model. To estimate the nonparametric components, we transform the model and apply a backfitting procedure. The GARCH parameters…

通过 Classifier-Lasso 检测有效价格中的未观测异质性AI 解读

This article proposes a new measure of efficient price as a weighted average of bid and ask prices, where the weights are constructed from the bid-ask long-run relationships in a panel error-correction model (ECM). To allow for heterogeneity in the long-run relationships, we consider a panel ECM with latent group structures so that all the stocks within a group share the same long-run relationship and do not otherwise. We extend the Classifier-Lasso method to the ECM to…

边际密度乘积与联合密度之比的估计：因果推断应用AI 解读

In various fields of data science, researchers often face problems of estimating the ratios of two probability densities.Particularly in the context of causal inference, the product of marginals for a treatment variable and covariates to their joint density ratio typically emerges in the process of constructing causal effect estimators.This article applies the general least square density ratio estimation methodology by Kanamori, Hido and Sugiyama to the product of marginals…

全球最小方差组合权重的预测AI 解读

We propose a novel dynamic approach to forecast the weights of the global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP) for the conditional covariance matrix of asset returns. The GMVP weights are the population coefficients of a linear regression of a benchmark return on a vector of return differences. This representation enables us to derive a consistent loss function from which we can infer the GMVP weights without imposing any distributional assumptions on the returns. In order to…

面板数据模型中的趋势设定检验AI 解读

This article proposes a consistent nonparametric test for common trend specifications in panel data models with fixed effects. The test is general enough to allow for heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional and serial dependence in the error components, has an asymptotically normal distribution under the null hypothesis of correct trend specification, and is consistent against various alternatives that deviate from the null. In addition, the test has an asymptotic unit power…

非对称损失下评价密度预测的适当评分规则AI 解读

This article proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It generalizes the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, such as the tails or the center of a variable’s range. The (weighted) ACPS extends the symmetric (weighted) CRPS by allowing for asymmetries in the preferences underlying the scoring rule. A test is used to statistically compare the predictive…

股票市场的统计循环随机波动率模型AI 解读

The stochastic volatility (SV) model and its variants are widely used in the financial sector, while recurrent neural network (RNN) models are successfully used in many large-scale industrial applications of deep learning. We combine these two methods in a nontrivial way and propose a model, which we call the statistical recurrent stochastic volatility (SR-SV) model, to capture the dynamics of stochastic volatility. The proposed model is able to capture complex volatility…

广义单指标模型的一种新估计方法AI 解读

The single index and generalized single index models have been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for studying nonlinear interaction effects of variables in the low-dimensional case. In this article, we propose a new estimation approach for generalized single index models E(Y | θ⊤X)=ψ(g(θ⊤X)) with ψ(·) known but g(·) unknown. Specifically, we first obtain a consistent estimator of the regression function by using a local linear smoother, and then estimate the parametric…

利用具有活跃与非活跃状态的聚集点过程学习人类活动模式AI 解读

Modeling event patterns is a central task in a wide range of disciplines. In applications such as studying human activity patterns, events often arrive clustered with sporadic and long periods of inactivity. Such heterogeneity in event patterns poses challenges for existing point process models. In this article, we propose a new class of clustered point processes that alternate between active and inactive states. The proposed model is flexible, highly interpretable, and can…

面板数据模型中的密度预测：半参数贝叶斯视角AI 解读

This article constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous coefficients as well as cross-sectional heteroscedasticity. The panel considered in this article features a large cross-sectional dimension N but short time series T. Due to the short T, traditional methods have difficulty in disentangling the heterogeneous parameters from the shocks, which contaminates the estimates of…

多阈值结构方程模型AI 解读

In this article, we consider the instrumental variable estimation for causal regression parameters with multiple unknown structural changes across subpopulations. We propose a multiple change point detection method to determine the number of thresholds and estimate the threshold locations in the two-stage least square procedure. After identifying the estimated threshold locations, we use the Wald method to estimate the parameters of interest, that is, the regression…

测量误差下条件预测能力相等的检验AI 解读

Loss functions are widely used to compare several competing forecasts. However, forecast comparisons are often based on mismeasured proxy variables for the true target. We introduce the concept of exact robustness to measurement error for loss functions and fully characterize this class of loss functions as the Bregman class. For such exactly robust loss functions, forecast loss differences are on average unaffected by the use of proxy variables and, thus, inference on…

基于模拟伪匹配的识别稳健推断AI 解读

We develop a general simulation-based inference procedure for partially specified models. Our procedure is based on matching auxiliary statistics to simulated counterparts where nuisance parameters are calibrated neither assuming identification of parameters of interest nor a one-to-one binding function. The conditions underlying the asymptotic validity of our (pseudo-)simulators in conjunction with appropriate bootstraps are characterized beyond the strict and exact…

GMM 与 M 估计一致性及根号样本量渐近正态性的有限矩条件诊断检验AI 解读

Common econometric analyses based on point estimates, standard errors, and confidence intervals presume the consistency and the root-n asymptotic normality of the GMM or M estimators. However, their key assumptions that data entail finite moments may not be always satisfied in applications. This article proposes a method of diagnostic testing for these key assumptions with applications to both simulated and real datasets.

动态得分驱动的独立成分分析AI 解读

A model for dynamic independent component analysis is introduced where the dynamics are driven by the score of the pseudo likelihood with respect to the rotation angle of model innovations. While conditional second moments are invariant with respect to rotations, higher conditional moments are not, which may have important implications for applications. The pseudo maximum likelihood estimator of the model is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A…

不交叉的单指标分位数回归曲线估计AI 解读

Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Single-index quantile regression (QR) models can avoid the curse of dimensionality in nonparametric problems by assuming that the response is only related to a single linear combination of the covariates. Like the standard parametric or nonparametric QR whose estimated curves may cross, the single-index QR can also suffer quantile crossing, leading to an invalid distribution for the response. This issue has attracted considerable attention in…

高维删失回归模型的 ℓ1 惩罚成对差分估计AI 解读

High-dimensional data are nowadays readily available and increasingly common in various fields of empirical economics. This article considers estimation and model selection for a high-dimensional censored linear regression model. We combine l1-penalization method with the ideas of pairwise difference and propose an l1-penalized pairwise difference least absolute deviations (LAD) estimator. Estimation consistency and model selection consistency of the estimator are…