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收益可预测性的 Bonferroni 型检验与初始条件AI 解读

We develop tests for predictability that are robust to both the magnitude of the initial condition and the degree of persistence of the predictor. While the popular Bonferroni Q test of Campbell and Yogo displays excellent power properties for strongly persistent predictors with an asymptotically negligible initial condition, it can suffer from severe size distortions and power losses when either the initial condition is asymptotically non-negligible or the predictor is…

利用多目标可诱导性回测系统性风险预测AI 解读

Systemic risk measures such as CoVaR, CoES, and MES are widely-used in finance, macroeconomics and by regulatory bodies. Despite their importance, we show that they fail to be elicitable and identifiable. This renders forecast comparison and validation, commonly summarized as “backtesting,” impossible. The novel notion of multi-objective elicitability solves this problem by relying on bivariate scores equipped with the lexicographic order. Based on this concept, we propose…

固定效应矩阵指数非平衡面板模型估计：美国对外直接投资存量应用AI 解读

In this article, we consider a matrix exponential unbalanced panel data model that allows for (i) spillover effects using matrix exponential terms, (ii) unobserved heterogeneity across entities and time, and (iii) potential heteroscedasticity in the error terms across entities and time. We adopt a likelihood based direct estimation approach in which we jointly estimate the common parameters and fixed effects. To ensure that our estimator has the standard large sample…

加密货币的时变网络AI 解读

Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the evolution of return cross-predictability and technological similarities. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method to consistently estimate the latent community structure of cryptocurrencies network that accounts for…

非平稳系统的大规模溢出网络AI 解读

This article proposes a vector error correction framework for constructing large consistent spillover networks of nonstationary systems grounded in the network theory of Diebold and Y ilmaz. We aim to provide a tailored methodology for the large nonstationary (macro)economic and financial system application settings avoiding technical and often hard to verify assumptions for general statistical high-dimensional approaches where the dimension can also increase with sample…

动态网络分位数回归模型AI 解读

We propose a dynamic network quantile regression model to investigate the quantile connectedness using a predetermined network information. We extend the existing network quantile autoregression model of Zhu et al. by explicitly allowing the contemporaneous network effects and controlling for the common factors across quantiles. To cope with the endogeneity issue due to simultaneous network spillovers, we adopt the instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) estimation…

社交媒体网络变化的在线监测AI 解读

Econometricians are increasingly working with high-dimensional networks and their dynamics. Econometricians, however, are often confronted with unforeseen changes in network dynamics. In this article, we develop a method and the corresponding algorithm for monitoring changes in dynamic networks. We characterize two types of changes, edge-initiated and node-initiated, to feature the complexity of networks. The proposed approach accounts for three potential challenges in the…

以部分函数型自回归建模函数时间序列与混合类型预测变量AI 解读

In many business and economics studies, researchers have sought to measure the dynamic dependence of curves with high-dimensional mixed-type predictors. We propose a partially functional autoregressive model (pFAR) where the serial dependence of curves is controlled by coefficient operators that are defined on a two-dimensional surface, and the individual and group effects of mixed-type predictors are estimated with a two-layer regularization. We develop an efficient…

套利特征的动态同类群组AI 解读

We propose an asset pricing factor model constructed with semiparametric characteristics-based mispricing and factor loading functions. We approximate the unknown functions by B-splines sieve where the number of B-splines coefficients is diverging. We estimate this model and test the existence of the mispricing function by a power enhanced hypothesis test. The enhanced test solves the low power problem caused by diverging B-splines coefficients, with the strengthened power…

采用收缩先验的时变参数动态二元 Probit 模型AI 解读

This article studies a time series binary probit model in which the underlying latent variable depends on its lag and exogenous regressors. The regression coefficients for the latent variable are allowed to vary over time to capture possible model instability. Bayesian shrinkage priors are applied to automatically differentiate fixed and truly time-varying coefficients and thus avoid unnecessary model complexity. I develop an MCMC algorithm for model estimation that exploits…

时变 VAR 模型的估计、推断与实证分析AI 解读

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, for example, forecasting, modeling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this article introduces a new class of time-varying VAR models in which the coefficients and covariance matrix of the error innovations are allowed to change smoothly over time. Accordingly, we establish a set of asymptotic properties including the impulse…

矩阵因子分析：从最小二乘到迭代投影AI 解读

In this article, we study large-dimensional matrix factor models and estimate the factor loading matrices and factor score matrix by minimizing square loss function. Interestingly, the resultant estimators coincide with the Projected Estimators (PE) in Yu et al. which was proposed from the perspective of simultaneous reduction of the dimensionality and the magnitudes of the idiosyncratic error matrix. In other word, we provide a least-square interpretation of the PE for the…

高维模型的双向同时推断AI 解读

This article proposes a general two-directional simultaneous inference (TOSI) framework for high-dimensional models with a manifest variable or latent variable structure, for example, high-dimensional mean models, high-dimensional sparse regression models, and high-dimensional latent factors models. TOSI performs simultaneous inference on a set of parameters from two directions, one to test whether the assumed zero parameters indeed are zeros and one to test whether exist…

评估对无混杂假设的敏感性：估计与推断AI 解读

This article provides a set of methods for quantifying the robustness of treatment effects estimated using the unconfoundedness assumption. Specifically, we estimate and do inference on bounds for various treatment effect parameters, like the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and the average effect of treatment on the treated (ATT), under nonparametric relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption indexed by a scalar sensitivity parameter c. These relaxations allow for limited…

基于惩罚 Tobit 似然的高维删失回归AI 解读

High-dimensional regression and regression with a left-censored response are each well-studied topics. In spite of this, few methods have been proposed which deal with both of these complications simultaneously. The Tobit model—long the standard method for censored regression in economics—has not been adapted for high-dimensional regression at all. To fill this gap and bring up-to-date techniques from high-dimensional statistics to the field of high-dimensional left-censored…

高斯框架下的概率预测协调AI 解读

Forecast reconciliation of multivariate time series maps a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts to satisfy a given set of linear constraints. Available methods in the literature either follow a projection matrix-based approach or an empirical copula-based reordering approach to revise the incoherent future sample paths to obtain reconciled probabilistic forecasts. The projection matrices are estimated either by optimizing a scoring rule such as energy or…

双变量时变价格停滞研究AI 解读

Price staleness refers to the extent of zero returns in price dynamics. Bandi, Pirino, and Reno introduce two types of staleness: systematic and idiosyncratic staleness. In this study, we allow price staleness to be time-varying and study the statistical inference for idiosyncratic and common price staleness between two assets. We propose consistent estimators for both time-varying idiosyncratic and systematic price staleness and derive their asymptotic theory. Moreover, we…

高维潜在中介变量下广义中介模型的估计与检验AI 解读

Motivated by an empirical analysis of stock reaction to COVID-19 pandemic, we propose a generalized mediation model with high-dimensional potential mediators to study the mediation effects of financial metrics that bridge company’s sector and stock value. We propose an estimation procedure for the direct effect via a partial penalized maximum likelihood method and establish its theoretical properties. We develop a Wald test for the indirect effect and show that the proposed…

用于稳健共同基金筛选的单侧精细对称化数据聚合方法AI 解读

We consider the problem of identifying skilled funds among a large number of candidates under the linear factor pricing models containing both observable and latent market factors. Motivated by the existence of non-strong potential factors and diversity of error distribution types of the linear factor pricing models, we develop a distribution-free multiple testing procedure to solve this problem. The proposed procedure is established based on the statistical tool of…

干扰参数位于边界时的 GARCH 设定检验AI 解读

This article develops tests for the correct specification of the conditional variance function in GARCH models when the true parameter may lie on the boundary of the parameter space. The test statistics considered are of Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises type, and are based on empirical processes marked by centered squared residuals. The limiting distributions of the test statistics depend on unknown nuisance parameters in a nontrivial way, making the tests difficult…

多门限变量自回归模型的最小二乘估计AI 解读

Most threshold models to-date contain a single threshold variable. However, in many empirical applications, models with multiple threshold variables may be needed and are the focus of this article. For the sake of readability, we start with the Two-Threshold-Variable Autoregressive (2-TAR) model and study its Least Squares Estimation (LSE). Among others, we show that the respective estimated thresholds are asymptotically independent. We propose a new method, namely the…

利用可能部分共享参数的多样本模型进行预测AI 解读

We consider prediction based on a main model. When the main model shares partial parameters with several other helper models, we make use of the additional information. Specifically, we propose a Model Averaging Prediction (MAP) procedure that takes into account data related to the main model as well as data related to the helper models. We allow the data related to different models to follow different structures, as long as they share some common covariate effect. We show…

海量数据的最优子抽样 BootstrapAI 解读

The bootstrap is a widely used procedure for statistical inference because of its simplicity and attractive statistical properties.However, the vanilla version of bootstrap is no longer feasible computationally for many modern massive datasets due to the need to repeatedly resample the entire data.Therefore, several improvements to the bootstrap method have been made in recent years, which assess the quality of estimators by subsampling the full dataset before resampling the…

贝叶斯非参数面板马尔可夫转换 GARCH 模型AI 解读

This article proposes Bayesian nonparametric inference for panel Markov-switching GARCH models. The model incorporates series-specific hidden Markov chain processes that drive the GARCH parameters. To cope with the high-dimensionality of the parameter space, the article assumes soft parameter pooling through a hierarchical prior distribution and introduces cross sectional clustering through a Bayesian nonparametric prior distribution. An MCMC posterior approximation…