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动态交互事件网络中的全局协变量效应检验AI 解读

In statistical network analysis it is common to observe so called interaction data. Such data is characterized by actors forming the vertices and interacting along edges of the network, where edges are randomly formed and dissolved over the observation horizon. In addition, covariates are observed and the goal is to model the impact of the covariates on the interactions. We distinguish two types of covariates: global, system-wide covariates (i.e., covariates taking the same…

具有随机波动率的变量排序不变大型贝叶斯 VARAI 解读

Many popular specifications for Vector Autoregressions (VARs) with multivariate stochastic volatility are not invariant to the way the variables are ordered due to the use of a lower triangular parameterization of the error covariance matrix. We show that the order invariance problem in existing approaches is likely to become more serious in large VARs. We propose the use of a specification which avoids the use of this lower triangular parameterization. We show that the…

极端分位数的变化中的变化估计AI 解读

Policy analysts are often interested in treating the units with extreme outcomes, such as infants with extremely low birth weights. Existing changes-in-changes (CIC) estimators are tailored to middle quantiles and do not work well for such subpopulations. This article proposes a new CIC estimator to accurately estimate treatment effects at extreme quantiles. With its asymptotic normality, we also propose a method of statistical inference, which is simple to implement. Based…

交互效应面板中解释变量与因子载荷条件独立性的 LM 检验AI 解读

A huge literature on modeling cross-sectional dependence in panels has been developed using interactive effects (IE).One area of contention is the hypothesis concerned with whether the regressors and factor loadings are correlated or not.Under the null hypothesis that they are conditionally independent, we can still apply the consistent and robust two-way fixed effects estimator.As an important specification test we develop an LM test for both static and dynamic panels with…

合成控制方法的设计视角AI 解读

Since their introduction by Abadie and Gardeazabal, Synthetic Control (SC) methods have quickly become one of the leading methods for estimating causal effects in observational studies in settings with panel data.Formal discussions often motivate SC methods by the assumption that the potential outcomes were generated by a factor model.Here we study SC methods from a design-based perspective, assuming a model for the selection of the treated unit(s) and period(s).We show that…

广义自回归正值过程AI 解读

We introduce generalized autoregressive positive-valued (GARP) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes that extends the class of existing autoregressive positive-valued (ARP) processes in one important dimension: each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable moving average of the variable of interest. The article provides ergodicity conditions for GARP processes and derives closed-form conditional and unconditional…

社会实验结果的推广：理论与印度证据AI 解读

How informative are treatment effects estimated in one region or time period for another region or time? In this article, I derive bounds on the average treatment effect in a context of interest using experimental evidence from another context. The bounds are based on (a) the information identified about treatment effect heterogeneity due to unobservables in the experiment and (b) using differences in outcome distributions across contexts to learn about differences in…

动态自回归流动性模型 DArLiQAI 解读

We introduce a new class of semiparametric dynamic autoregressive models for the Amihud illiquidity measure, which captures both the long-run trend in the illiquidity series with a nonparametric component and the short-run dynamics with an autoregressive component. We develop a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator based on conditional moment restrictions and an efficient semiparametric maximum likelihood (ML) estimator based on an iid assumption. We derive large…

局部自归一化多变点检验的一般构造框架AI 解读

–We propose a general framework to construct self-normalized multiple-change-point tests with time series data. The only building block is a user-specified single-change-detecting statistic, which covers a large class of popular methods, including the cumulative sum process, outlier-robust rank statistics, and order statistics. The proposed test statistic does not require robust and consistent estimation of nuisance parameters, selection of bandwidth parameters, nor…

持续时间结果上动态处理效应的工具变量估计AI 解读

This article considers identification and estimation of the causal effect of the time Z until a subject is treated on a duration T. The time-to-treatment is not randomly assigned, T is randomly right censored by a random variable C, and the time-to-treatment Z is right censored by T∧C. The endogeneity issue is treated using an instrumental variable explaining Z and independent of the error term of the model. We study identification in a fully nonparametric framework. We show…

不依从随机实验中依从者平均处理效应的模型辅助估计AI 解读

Noncompliance is a common problem in randomized experiments in various fields. Under certain assumptions, the complier average treatment effect is identifiable and equal to the ratio of the intention-to-treat effects of the potential outcomes to that of the treatment received. To improve the estimation efficiency, we propose three model-assisted estimators for the complier average treatment effect in randomized experiments with a binary outcome. We study their asymptotic…

依赖度量中多个断点的一致估计AI 解读

This article proposes different methods to consistently detect multiple breaks in copula-based dependence measures. Starting with the classical binary segmentation, also the more recent wild binary segmentation (WBS) is considered. For binary segmentation, consistency of the estimators for the location of the breakpoints as well as the number of breaks is proved, taking filtering effects from AR-GARCH models explicitly into account. Monte Carlo simulations based on a factor…

基于条件分位数变分自编码器的资产定价AI 解读

We propose a new asset pricing model that is applicable to the big panel of return data. The main idea of this model is to learn the conditional distribution of the return, which is approximated by a step distribution function constructed from conditional quantiles of the return. To study conditional quantiles of the return, we propose a new conditional quantile variational autoencoder (CQVAE) network. The CQVAE network specifies a factor structure for conditional quantiles…

空间依赖面板数据的一致非参数推断AI 解读

This article proposes a uniform functional inference method for nonparametric regressions in a panel-data setting that features general unknown forms of spatio-temporal dependence. The method requires a long time span, but does not impose any restriction on the size of the cross section or the strength of spatial correlation. The uniform inference is justified via a new growing-dimensional Gaussian coupling theory for spatio-temporally dependent panels. We apply the method…

趋势—周期分解误设的简易修正及自然利率估计应用AI 解读

We propose a simple correction for misspecification in trend-cycle decompositions when the stochastic trend is assumed to be a random walk process but the estimated trend displays some serial correlation in first differences. Possible sources of misspecification that would otherwise be hard to detect and correct for include a small amount of measurement error, omitted variables, or minor approximation errors in model dynamics when estimating trend. Our proposed correction is…

高维因子定价模型中 alpha 的自适应检验AI 解读

This article proposes a new procedure to validate the multi-factor pricing theory by testing the presence of alpha in linear factor pricing models with a large number of assets. Because the market’s inefficient pricing is likely to occur to a small fraction of exceptional assets, we develop a testing procedure that is particularly powerful against sparse signals. Based on the high-dimensional Gaussian approximation theory, we propose a simulation-based approach to…

非参数秩统计量的破平局自助法AI 解读

In this article, we propose a new bootstrap procedure for the empirical copula process. The procedure involves taking pseudo samples of normalized ranks in the same fashion as the classical bootstrap and applying small perturbations to break ties in the normalized ranks. Our procedure is a simple modification of the usual bootstrap based on sampling with replacement, yet it provides noticeable improvement in the finite sample performance. We also discuss how to incorporate…

价格跳跃还是价格停滞？AI 解读

Even moderate amounts of zero returns in financial data, associated with stale prices, are heavily detrimental for reliable jump inference. We harness staleness-robust estimators to reappraise the statistical features of jumps in financial markets. We find that jumps are much less frequent and much less contributing to price variation than what found by the empirical literature so far. In particular, the empirical finding that volatility is driven by a pure jump process is…

半非参数随机波动率模型下的杠杆效应之谜AI 解读

This article extends the solution proposed by Aït-Sahalia, Fan, and Li for the leverage effect puzzle, which refers to a fact that empirical correlation between daily asset returns and the changes of daily volatility estimated from high frequency data is nearly zero. Complementing the analysis in Aït-Sahalia, Fan, and Li via the Heston model, we work with a generic semi-nonparametric stochastic volatility model via an operator-based expansion method. Under such a general…

存在溢出效应的连续处理模型估计：控制函数方法AI 解读

We study a continuous treatment effect model in the presence of treatment spillovers through social networks.We assume that one's outcome is affected not only by his/her own treatment but also by a (weighted) average of his/her neighbors' treatments, both of which are treated as endogenous variables.Using a control function approach with appropriate instrumental variables, we show that the conditional mean potential outcome can be nonparametrically identified.We also…

面板数据分位数回归的自助法推断AI 解读

This article develops bootstrap methods for practical statistical inference in panel data quantile regression models with fixed effects. We consider random-weighted bootstrap resampling and formally establish its validity for asymptotic inference. The bootstrap algorithm is simple to implement in practice by using a weighted quantile regression estimation for fixed effects panel data. We provide results under conditions that allow for temporal dependence of observations…

用于部分线性分位数回归的神经网络AI 解读

Deep learning has enjoyed tremendous success in a variety of applications but its application to quantile regression remains scarce. A major advantage of the deep learning approach is its flexibility to model complex data in a more parsimonious way than nonparametric smoothing methods. However, while deep learning brought breakthroughs in prediction, it is not well suited for statistical inference due to its black box nature. In this article, we leverage the advantages of…

线性矩条件定义的集合识别参数泛函的简便推断AI 解读

This article proposes a new approach to obtain uniformly valid inference for linear functionals or scalar subvectors of a partially identified parameter defined by linear moment inequalities. The procedure amounts to bootstrapping the value functions of randomly perturbed linear programming problems, and does not require the researcher to grid over the parameter space. The low-level conditions for uniform validity rely on genericity results for linear programs. The…

时变因子扩展向量自回归模型的估计与推断AI 解读

We introduce a time-varying (TV) factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model to capture the TV behavior in the factor loadings and the VAR coefficients. To consistently estimate the TV parameters, we first obtain the unobserved common factors via the local principal component analysis (PCA) and then estimate the TV-FAVAR model via a local smoothing approach. The limiting distribution of the proposed estimators is established. To gauge possible sources of TV features…