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非共同结构断点AI 解读

We develop a new Bayesian approach to estimate noncommon structural breaks in panel regression models. Any subset of the cross-section may be hit at different times within a break window. Break-specific parameters are learned from the cross-section. They reflect whether (i) breaks hit many or few series and (ii) there is a long or short lag between the first and final series hit by a break. In an empirical application to international stock return predictability, the method…

异质竞标者第一价格拍卖的非参数识别与推断AI 解读

In the auction literature, it is well established that bidders’ asymmetry plays an important role in determining auction revenues. In this article, we propose a nonparametric methodology to analyze first-price auctions with two popularly adopted asymmetries: heterogeneous risk preferences and asymmetric value distributions. We find that the two competing models provide distinct implications for the bid distributions conditional on heterogeneity. By modeling bidders’…

连接频率学派与贝叶斯变点方法AI 解读

We show that the two-stage minimum description length (MDL) criterion widely used to estimate linear change-point (CP) models corresponds to the marginal likelihood of a Bayesian model with a specific class of prior distributions. This allows results from the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms to be bridged together. Thanks to this link, one can rely on the consistency of the number and locations of the estimated CPs and the computational efficiency of frequentist methods,…

流式数据的无条件分位数回归AI 解读

The Unconditional Quantile Regression (UQR) method, initially introduced by Firpo et al. has gained significant traction as a popular approach for modeling and analyzing data.However, much like Conditional Quantile Regression (CQR), UQR encounters computational challenges when it comes to obtaining parameter estimates for streaming datasets.This is attributed to the involvement of unknown parameters in the logistic regression loss function used in UQR, which presents…

含交互固定效应的异质动态面板模型：Oracle 有效估计AI 解读

We propose a two-step procedure to estimate a heterogeneous dynamic panel data model with interactive fixed effects. We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimators and show that the final estimator is oracle efficient. We also propose a specification test for the null hypothesis of homogeneous slopes and study the asymptotic properties of the test statistic under both local and global alternatives. Simulations demonstrate the fine performance of the estimator and…

波动率发现的计量分析AI 解读

We investigate information processing in the stochastic process driving stock's volatility (volatility discovery).We apply fractionally cointegration techniques to decompose the estimates of the market-specific integrated variances into an estimate of the common integrated variance of the efficient price and a transitory component.The market weights on the common integrated variance of the efficient price are the volatility discovery measures.We relate the volatility…

岭正则化的刀切 Anderson–Rubin 检验AI 解读

We consider hypothesis testing in instrumental variable regression models with few included exogenous covariates but many instruments-possibly more than the number of observations. We show that a ridge-regularized version of the jackknifed Anderson and Rubin (henceforth AR) test controls asymptotic size in the presence of heteroscedasticity, and when the instruments may be arbitrarily weak. Asymptotic size control is established under weaker assumptions than those imposed…

大型贝叶斯向量自回归的变分推断AI 解读

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors.Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural representation of the parameter space for posterior inference.Instead, we elicit hierarchical shrinkage priors directly on the matrix of regression coefficients so that (a) the prior structure maps into posterior inference on the reduced-form transition matrix and (b) posterior…

广义局部平均处理效应模型的有效稳健估计AI 解读

This article studies the estimation of causal parameters in the generalized local average treatment effect (GLATE) model, which expands upon the traditional LATE model to include multivalued treatments. We derive the efficient influence function (EIF) and the semiparametric efficiency bound (SPEB) for two types of causal parameters: the local average structural function (LASF) and the local average structural function for the treated (LASFT). The moment conditions generated…

宏观经济下行风险的建模与预测AI 解读

We model permanent and transitory changes of the predictive density of US GDP growth. A substantial increase in downside risk to US economic growth emerges over the last 30 years, associated with the long-run growth slowdown started in the early 2000s. Conditional skewness moves procyclically, implying negatively skewed predictive densities ahead and during recessions, often anticipated by deteriorating financial conditions. Conversely, positively skewed distributions…

具有潜在组结构的面板函数系数分位数回归AI 解读

This paper considers estimating functional-coefficient models in panel quantile regression with individual effects, allowing the cross-sectional and temporal dependence for large panel observations. A latent group structure is imposed on the heterogenous quantile regression models so that the number of nonparametric functional coefficients to be estimated can be reduced considerably. With the preliminary local linear quantile estimates of the subject-specific functional…

控制错误发现比例超限概率的经验贝叶斯方法AI 解读

In large-scale multiple hypothesis testing problems, the false discovery exceedance (FDX) provides a desirable alternative to the widely used false discovery rate (FDR) when the false discovery proportion (FDP) is highly variable. We develop an empirical Bayes approach to control the FDX. We show that, for independent hypotheses from a two-group model and dependent hypotheses from a Gaussian model fulfilling the exchangeability condition, an oracle decision rule based on…

结果依赖抽样与单调性假设下的因果推断AI 解读

We study causal inference under case-control and case-population sampling. Specifically, we focus on the binary-outcome and binary-treatment case, where the parameters of interest are causal relative and attributable risks defined via the potential outcome framework. It is shown that strong ignorability is not always as powerful as it is under random sampling and that certain monotonicity assumptions yield comparable results in terms of sharp identified intervals.…

协整回归的 Bootstrap 推断：传统与自归一化统计量AI 解读

Traditional tests of hypotheses on the cointegrating vector are well known to suffer from severe size distortions in finite samples, especially when the data are characterized by large levels of endogeneity or error serial correlation.To address this issue, we combine a vector autoregressive (VAR) sieve bootstrap to construct critical values with a self-normalization approach that avoids direct estimation of long-run variance parameters when computing test statistics.To…

债券收益率利差的跳跃检验AI 解读

This article studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing inference only on a univariate jump test applied to the spread tends to overestimate the number of jumps in yield spreads and puts the coherence of test results at risk. We formalize…

样本选择模型的双重机器学习AI 解读

This article considers the evaluation of discretely distributed treatments when outcomes are only observed for a subpopulation due to sample selection or outcome attrition. For identification, we combine a selection-on-observables assumption for treatment assignment with either selection-on-observables or instrumental variable assumptions concerning the outcome attrition/sample selection process. We also consider dynamic confounding, meaning that covariates that jointly…

降秩包络向量自回归模型AI 解读

–The standard vector autoregressive (VAR) models suffer from overparameterization which is a serious issue for high-dimensional time series data as it restricts the number of variables and lags that can be incorporated into the model. Several statistical methods, such as the reduced-rank model for multivariate (multiple) time series (Velu et al., 1986; Reinsel and Velu, 1998; Reinsel et al., 2022) and the Envelope VAR model (Wang and Ding, 2018), provide solutions for…

极端事件建模：时变极端尾部形状AI 解读

We propose a dynamic semiparametric framework to study time variation in tail parameters.The framework builds on the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for modeling peaks over thresholds as in Extreme Value Theory, but casts the model in a conditional framework to allow for time-variation in the tail parameters.We establish parameter regions for stationarity and ergodicity and for the existence of (unconditional) moments and consider conditions for consistency and…

聚类层级的修正随机化检验AI 解读

Suppose a researcher observes individuals within a county within a state. Given concerns about correlation across individuals, it is common to group observations into clusters and conduct inference treating observations across clusters as independent. However, a researcher that has chosen to cluster at the county level may be unsure of their decision, given knowledge that observations are independent across states. This article proposes a modified randomization test as a…

朴素等权与均值—方差投资组合策略的组合AI 解读

We study how to best combine the sample mean-variance portfolio with the naive equally weighted portfolio to optimize out-of-sample performance. We show that the seemingly natural convexity constraint—the two combination coefficients must sum to one—is undesirable because it severely constrains the allocation to the risk-free asset relative to the unconstrained portfolio combination. However, we demonstrate that relaxing the convexity constraint inflates estimation errors in…

FNETS：高维时间序列的因子调整网络估计与预测AI 解读

–We propose FNETS, a methodology for network estimation and forecasting of high-dimensional time series exhibiting strong serial- and cross-sectional correlations. We operate under a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model which, after accounting for pervasive co-movements of the variables by common factors, models the remaining idiosyncratic dynamic dependence between the variables as a sparse VAR process. Network estimation of FNETS consists of three steps: (i)…

聚集模型中的内生性修正AI 解读

We develop a novel control function approach in models where the treatment variable has bunching at one corner of its support. This situation typically arises when the treatment variable is a constrained choice and some observations choose the corner solution. The method exploits distributional shape restrictions but makes no exclusion restrictions. We provide estimators and establish their asymptotic behavior, prove the convergence of the bootstrap, and develop tests of the…

历史模拟预期损失模型的高功效回测AI 解读

Since 2016, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has regulated banks to switch from a Value-at-Risk (VaR) to an Expected Shortfall (ES) approach to measuring the market risk and calculating the capital requirement. In the transition from VaR to ES, the major challenge faced by financial institutions is the lack of simple but powerful tools for evaluating ES forecasts (i.e., backtesting ES). This article first shows that the unconditional backtest is inconsistent in…

分布共识排序的统计推断AI 解读

Instead of testing for unanimous agreement, I propose learning how broad of a consensus favors one distribution over another (of earnings, productivity, asset returns, test scores, etc.). Specifically, given a sample from each of two distributions, I propose statistical inference methods to learn about the set of utility functions for which the first distribution has higher expected utility than the second distribution. With high probability, an “inner” confidence set is…