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采用混合提议分布的两阶段重要性抽样AI 解读

For importance sampling (IS), multiple proposals can be combined to address different aspects of a target distribution. There are various methods for IS with multiple proposals, including Hesterberg's stratified IS estimator, Owen and Zhou's regression estimator, and Tan's maximum likelihood estimator. For the problem of efficiently allocating samples to different proposals, it is natural to use a pilot sample to select the mixture proportions before the actual sampling and…

边际参数化潜在结果模型的半参数贝叶斯因果估计AI 解读

We propose a new semiparametric Bayesian model for causal inference in which assignment to treatment depends on potential outcomes. The model uses the probit stick-breaking process mixture proposed by Chung and Dunson (Citation2009), a variant of the Dirichlet process mixture modeling. In contrast to previous Bayesian models, the proposed model directly estimates the parameters of the marginal parametric model of potential outcomes, while it relaxes the strong ignorability…

HIV对治疗进化响应的贝叶斯层级建模AI 解读

A major challenge for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is the development of therapy-resistant strains. We present a statistical model that quantifies the evolution of HIV populations when exposed to particular therapies. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to estimate differences in rates of nucleotide changes between treatment- and control-group sequences. Each group's rates are allowed to vary spatially along the HIV genome. We employ a…

流形上的局部线性回归及其几何解释AI 解读

High-dimensional data analysis has been an active area, and the main focus areas have been variable selection and dimension reduction. In practice, it occurs often that the variables are located on an unknown, lower-dimensional nonlinear manifold. Under this manifold assumption, one purpose of this article is regression and gradient estimation on the manifold, and another is developing a new tool for manifold learning. As regards the first aim, we suggest directly reducing…

利用 Pólya–Gamma 潜变量进行逻辑模型贝叶斯推断AI 解读

We propose a new data-augmentation strategy for fully Bayesian inference in models with binomial likelihoods. The approach appeals to a new class of Pólya–Gamma distributions, which are constructed in detail. A variety of examples are presented to show the versatility of the method, including logistic regression, negative binomial regression, nonlinear mixed-effect models, and spatial models for count data. In each case, our data-augmentation strategy leads to simple,…

大型稀疏列联表时间依赖的贝叶斯建模AI 解读

In many applications, it is of interest to study trends over time in relationships among categorical variables, such as age group, ethnicity, religious affiliation, political party and preference for particular policies. At each time point, a sample of individuals provide responses to a set of questions, with different individuals sampled at each time. In such settings, there tends to be abundant missing data and the variables being measured may change over time. At each…

利用删失函数型数据进行分类AI 解读

We consider classification of functional data when the training curves are not observed on the same interval. Different types of classifier are suggested, one of which involves a new curve extension procedure. Our approach enables us to exploit the information contained in the endpoints of these intervals by incorporating it in an explicit but flexible way. We study asymptotic properties of our classifiers, and show that, in a variety of settings, they can even produce…

病例定义与设计敏感度AI 解读

In a case-referent study, cases of disease are compared to non-cases with respect to their antecedent exposure to a treatment in an effort to determine whether exposure causes some cases of the disease. Because exposure is not randomly assigned in the population, as it would be if the population were a vast randomized trial, exposed and unexposed subjects may differ prior to exposure with respect to covariates that may or may not have been measured. After controlling for…

贝叶斯序贯分割的多元密度估计AI 解读

Consider a class of densities that are piecewise constant functions over partitions of the sample space defined by sequential coordinate partitioning. We introduce a prior distribution for a density in this function class and derive in closed form the marginal posterior distribution of the corresponding partition. A computationally efficient method, based on sequential importance sampling, is presented for the inference of the partition from this posterior distribution.…

供应受限时金标准检测的最优分配：HIV治疗失败评估应用AI 解读

The World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for monitoring the effectiveness of HIV treatment in resource-limited settings (RLS) are mostly based on clinical and immunological markers (e.g., CD4 cell counts). Recent research indicates that the guidelines are inadequate and can result in high error rates. Viral load (VL) is considered the "gold standard", yet its widespread use is limited by cost and infrastructure. In this paper, we propose a diagnostic algorithm that…

用于样本量不平衡多元两样本检验的集成子抽样AI 解读

Some existing nonparametric two-sample tests for equality of multivariate distributions perform unsatisfactorily when the two sample sizes are unbalanced. In particular, the power of these tests tends to diminish with increasingly unbalanced sample sizes. In this article, we propose a new testing procedure to solve this problem. The proposed test, based on the nearest neighbor method by Schilling, employs a novel ensemble subsampling scheme to remedy this issue. More…

函数型数据中主成分数量的选择AI 解读

Functional principal component analysis (FPCA) has become the most widely used dimension reduction tool for functional data analysis. We consider functional data measured at random, subject-specific time points, contaminated with measurement error, allowing for both sparse and dense functional data, and propose novel information criteria to select the number of principal component in such data. We propose a Bayesian information criterion based on marginal modeling that can…

考虑时间序列依赖的统计学习：小鼠睡眠评分应用AI 解读

We develop methodology which combines statistical learning methods with generalized Markov models, thereby enhancing the former to account for time series dependence. Our methodology can accommodate very general and very long-term time dependence structures in an easily estimable and computationally tractable fashion. We apply our methodology to the scoring of sleep behavior in mice. As currently used methods are expensive, invasive, and labor intensive, there is…

网络数据条件推断的抽样方法AI 解读

Random graphs with given vertex degrees have been widely used as a model for many real-world complex networks. However, both statistical inference and analytic study of such networks present great challenges. In this article, we propose a new sequential importance sampling method for sampling networks with a given degree sequence. These samples can be used to approximate closely the null distributions of a number of test statistics involved in such networks and provide an…

加权平均导数的广义刀切估计量AI 解读

With the aim of improving the quality of asymptotic distributional approximations for nonlinear functionals of nonparametric estimators, this article revisits the large-sample properties of an important member of that class, namely a kernel-based weighted average derivative estimator. Asymptotic linearity of the estimator is established under weak conditions. Indeed, we show that the bandwidth conditions employed are necessary in some cases. A bias-corrected version of the…

利用次要结局改进存在不依从的随机实验推断AI 解读

We develop new methods for analyzing randomized experiments with noncompliance and, by extension, instrumental variable settings, when the often controversial, but key, exclusion restriction assumption is violated. We show how existing large-sample bounds on intention-to-treat effects for the subpopulations of compliers, never-takers, and always-takers can be tightened by exploiting the joint distribution of the outcome of interest and a secondary outcome, for which the…

基于小波方差的复合随机过程参数估计AI 解读

This article presents a new estimation method for the parameters of a time series model. We consider here composite Gaussian processes that are the sum of independent Gaussian processes which, in turn, explain an important aspect of the time series, as is the case in engineering and natural sciences. The proposed estimation method offers an alternative to classical estimation based on the likelihood, that is straightforward to implement and often the only feasible estimation…

随机临床试验中依方案生存终点疗效的敏感性分析AI 解读

Assessing per-protocol treatment effcacy on a time-to-event endpoint is a common objective of randomized clinical trials. The typical analysis uses the same method employed for the intention-to-treat analysis (e.g., standard survival analysis) applied to the subgroup meeting protocol adherence criteria. However, due to potential post-randomization selection bias, this analysis may mislead about treatment efficacy. Moreover, while there is extensive literature on methods for…

非参数有限混合回归模型AI 解读

Motivated by an analysis of US house price index data, we propose nonparametric finite mixture of regression models. We study the identifiability issue of the proposed models, and develop an estimation procedure by employing kernel regression. We further systematically study the sampling properties of the proposed estimators, and establish their asymptotic normality. A modified EM algorithm is proposed to carry out the estimation procedure. We show that our algorithm…

通过幂变换估计极端条件分位数AI 解读

The estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is an important issue in numerous disciplines. Quantile regression (QR) provides a natural way to capture the covariate effects at different tails of the response distribution. However, without any distributional assumptions, estimation from conventional QR is often unstable at the tails, especially for heavy-tailed distributions due to data sparsity. In this article, we develop a new three-stage estimation procedure that…

潜在监督学习AI 解读

training labels which serve as surrogates for the unobserved class labels. A specific model is investigated where the surrogate variable arises from a two-component Gaussian mixture with unknown means and variances, and the component membership is determined by a hyperplane in the covariate space. The estimation of the separating hyperplane and the Gaussian mixture parameters forms what shall be referred to as the change-line classification problem. A data-driven sieve…

含固定效应的面板删失分位数回归估计AI 解读

This article investigates estimation of censored quantile regression (QR) models with fixed effects. Standard available methods are not appropriate for estimation of a censored QR model with a large number of parameters or with covariates correlated with unobserved individual heterogeneity. Motivated by these limitations, the article proposes estimators that are obtained by applying fixed effects QR to subsets of observations selected either parametrically or…

从数据深度到局部深度：聚焦中心性AI 解读

Aiming at analyzing multimodal or nonconvexly supported distributions through data depth, we introduce a local extension of depth. Our construction is obtained by conditioning the distribution to appropriate depth-based neighborhoods and has the advantages, among others, of maintaining affine-invariance and applying to all depths in a generic way. Most importantly, unlike their competitors, which (for extreme localization) rather measure probability mass, the resulting local…

任意样本选择偏差下未知对称总体的半参数有效稳健估计AI 解读

We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the center and shape of a symmetric population when a representative sample of the population is unavailable due to selection bias. We allow an arbitrary sample selection mechanism determined by the data collection procedure, and we do not impose any parametric form on the population distribution. Under this general framework, we construct a family of consistent estimators of the center that is robust to population model…