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伴侣队列研究的纵向多变量结局分析：HPV传播动态应用AI 解读

We consider a specific situation of correlated data where multiple outcomes are repeatedly measured on each member of a couple. Such multivariate longitudinal data from couples may exhibit multi-faceted correlations which can be further complicated if there are polygamous partnerships. An example is data from cohort studies on human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission dynamics in heterosexual couples. HPV is a common sexually transmitted disease with 14 known oncogenic types…

包络模型与方法的基础AI 解读

Envelopes were recently proposed by Cook, Li and Chiaromonte as a method for reducing estimative and predictive variations in multivariate linear regression. We extend their formulation, proposing a general definition of an envelope and a general framework for adapting envelope methods to any estimation procedure. We apply the new envelope methods to weighted least squares, generalized linear models and Cox regression. Simulations and illustrative data analysis show the…

通过局部信息传播实现可扩展的贝叶斯模型平均AI 解读

This article shows that a probabilistic version of the classical forward-stepwise variable inclusion procedure can serve as a general data-augmentation scheme for model space distributions in (generalized) linear models. This latent variable representation takes the form of a Markov process, thereby allowing information propagation algorithms to be applied for sampling from model space posteriors. In particular, We propose a sequential Monte Carlo method for achieving…

未知重尾异方差噪声下 ARMA 模型的最小绝对偏差推断AI 解读

This article develops a systematic procedure of statistical inference for the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model with unspecified and heavy-tailed heteroscedastic noises. We first investigate the least absolute deviation estimator (LADE) and the self-weighted LADE for the model. Both estimators are shown to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal when the noise has a finite variance and infinite variance, respectively. The rates of convergence of the LADE…

单位区间密度的改进变换核估计AI 解读

The kernel density estimator (KDE) suffers boundary biases when applied to densities on bounded supports, which are assumed to be the unit interval. Transformations mapping the unit interval to the real line can be used to remove boundary biases. However, this approach may induce erratic tail behaviors when the estimated density of transformed data is transformed back to its original scale. We propose a modified, transformation-based KDE that employs a tapered and tilted…

高维均值相等的两样本检验AI 解读

We develop a test statistic for testing the equality of two population mean vectors in the “large-p-small-n” setting. Such a test must surmount the rank-deficiency of the sample covariance matrix, which breaks down the classic Hotelling T2 test. The proposed procedure, called the generalized component test, avoids full estimation of the covariance matrix by assuming that the p components admit a logical ordering such that the dependence between components is related to their…

多样本混合模型的似然比检验及其基因印记应用AI 解读

Genomic imprinting is a known aspect of the etiology of many diseases. The imprinting phenomenon depicts differential expression levels of the allele depending on its parental origin. When the parental origin is unknown, the expression level has a finite normal mixture distribution. In such applications, a random sample of expression levels consists of three subsamples according to the number of minor alleles an individual possesses, of which one is the mixture and the other…

基于 Q 矩阵的诊断分类模型统计分析AI 解读

Diagnostic classification models (DMCs) have recently gained prominence in educational assessment, psychiatric evaluation, and many other disciplines. Central to the model specification is the so-called Q-matrix that provides a qualitative specification of the item-attribute relationship. In this article, we develop theories on the identifiability for the Q-matrix under the DINA and the DINO models. We further propose an estimation procedure for the Q-matrix through the…

估计最优动态治疗方案的新统计学习方法AI 解读

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are sequential decision rules for individual patients that can adapt over time to an evolving illness. The goal is to accommodate heterogeneity among patients and find the DTR which will produce the best long-term outcome if implemented. We introduce two new statistical learning methods for estimating the optimal DTR, termed backward outcome weighted learning (BOWL), and simultaneous outcome weighted learning (SOWL). These approaches convert…

基于疗效与毒性联合效用的两周期贝叶斯剂量探索AI 解读

Juhee Lee, Peter F. Thall, Yuan Ji & Peter MüllerJuhee Lee, Department of Statistics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (E-mail: ).Peter F. Thall, Department of Biostatistics, University of Texas, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77230-1402 (E-mail: ).Yuan Ji, Center for Clinical and Research Informatics, North Shore University Health System, Evanston, IL 60201 (E-mail: ).Peter Müller, Department of Mathematics, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (E-mail:…

超高维回归的广义信赖推断AI 解读

In recent years, the ultrahigh-dimensional linear regression problem has attracted enormous attention from the research community. Under the sparsity assumption, most of the published work is devoted to the selection and estimation of the predictor variables with nonzero coefficients. This article studies a different but fundamentally important aspect of this problem: uncertainty quantification for parameter estimates and model choices. To be more specific, this article…

通过分位数匹配实现分布匹配估计AI 解读

Motivated by the problem of selecting representative portfolios for backtesting counterparty credit risks, we propose a matching quantiles estimation (MQE) method for matching a target distribution by that of a linear combination of a set of random variables. An iterative procedure based on the ordinary least-squares estimation (OLS) is proposed to compute MQE. MQE can be easily modified by adding a LASSO penalty term if a sparse representation is desired, or by restricting…

存在缺失观测时的有效分位数回归分析AI 解读

This article examines the problem of estimation in a quantile regression model when observations are missing at random under independent and nonidentically distributed errors. We consider three approaches of handling this problem based on nonparametric inverse probability weighting, estimating equations projection, and a combination of both. An important distinguishing feature of our methods is their ability to handle missing response and/or partially missing covariates,…

基于对数正态形状混合分布的客观贝叶斯生存分析AI 解读

Survival models such as the Weibull or log-normal lead to inference that is not robust to the presence of outliers. They also assume that all heterogeneity between individuals can be modeled through covariates. This article considers the use of infinite mixtures of lifetime distributions as a solution for these two issues. This can be interpreted as the introduction of a random effect in the survival distribution. We introduce the family of shape mixtures of log-normal…

多元时间序列中多个结构断点的检测AI 解读

We propose a new nonparametric procedure (referred to as MuBreD) for the detection and estimation of multiple structural breaks in the autocovariance function of a multivariate (second-order) piecewise stationary process, which also identifies the components of the series where the breaks occur. MuBreD is based on a comparison of the estimated spectral distribution on different segments of the observed time series and consists of three steps: it starts with a consistent…

协变量同时含测量误差与误分类时的函数型和结构型方法AI 解读

Covariate measurement imprecision or errors arise frequently in many areas. It is well known that ignoring such errors can substantially degrade the quality of inference or even yield erroneous results. Although in practice both covariates subject to measurement error and covariates subject to misclassification can occur, research attention in the literature has mainly focused on addressing either one of these problems separately. To fill this gap, we develop estimation and…

协变量自适应随机临床试验的假设检验AI 解读

Covariate-adaptive designs are often implemented to balance important covariates in clinical trials. However, the theoretical properties of conventional testing hypotheses are usually unknown under covariate-adaptive randomized clinical trials. In the literature, most studies are based on simulations. In this article, we provide theoretical foundation of hypothesis testing under covariate-adaptive designs based on linear models. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the…

分层抽样下聚类失效时间的半参数加速失效时间建模AI 解读

Clustered failure times often arise from studies with stratified sampling designs where it is desired to reduce both cost and sampling error. Semiparametric accelerated failure time (AFT) models have not been used as frequently as Cox relative risk models in such settings due to lack of efficient and reliable computing routines for inferences. The challenge roots in the nonsmoothness of the rank-based estimating functions, and for clustered data, the asymptotic properties of…

基于动态切片的非参数多样本检验AI 解读

K-sample testing problems arise in many scientific applications and have attracted statisticians’ attention for many years. We propose an omnibus nonparametric method based on an optimal discretization (aka “slicing”) of continuous random variables in the test. The novelty of our approach lies in the inclusion of a term penalizing the number of slices (i.e., the resolution of the discretization) so as to regularize the corresponding likelihood-ratio test statistic. An…

超高维判别分析的无模型特征筛选AI 解读

This work is concerned with marginal sure independence feature screening for ultrahigh dimensional discriminant analysis. The response variable is categorical in discriminant analysis. This enables us to use the conditional distribution function to construct a new index for feature screening. In this article, we propose a marginal feature screening procedure based on empirical conditional distribution function. We establish the sure screening and ranking consistency…

后费舍尔实验设计：从实体实验到虚拟实验AI 解读

Fisher’s pioneering work in design of experiments has inspired further work with broader applications, especially in industrial experimentation. This article discusses three topics in physical experiments: principles of effect hierarchy, sparsity, and heredity for factorial designs, a new method called conditional main effect (CME) for de-aliasing aliased effects, and robust parameter design. I also review the recent emergence of virtual experiments on a computer. Some major…

社会网络中的多主体推断：有限总体学习方法AI 解读

When people in a society want to make inference about some parameter, each person may want to use data collected by other people. Information (data) exchange in social networks is usually costly, so to make reliable statistical decisions, people need to trade off the benefits and costs of information acquisition. Conflicts of interests and coordination problems will arise in the process. Classical statistics does not consider people's incentives and interactions in the data…

This paper explores the homogeneity of coefficients in high-dimensional regression, which extends the sparsity concept and is more general and suitable for many applications. Homogeneity arises when regression coefficients corresponding to neighboring geographical regions or a similar cluster of covariates are expected to be approximately the same. Sparsity corresponds to a special case of homogeneity with a large cluster of known atom zero. In this article, we propose a new…

SPReM：高维线性回归的稀疏投影回归模型AI 解读

The aim of this article is to develop a sparse projection regression modeling (SPReM) framework to perform multivariate regression modeling with a large number of responses and a multivariate covariate of interest. We propose two novel heritability ratios to simultaneously perform dimension reduction, response selection, estimation, and testing, while explicitly accounting for correlations among multivariate responses. Our SPReM is devised to specifically address the low…