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基于分位数偏相关的变量筛选AI 解读

In quantile linear regression with ultra-high dimensional data, we propose an algorithm for screening all candidate variables and subsequently selecting relevant predictors. Specifically, we first employ quantile partial correlation for screening, and then we apply the extended Bayesian information criterion (EBIC) for best subset selection. Our proposed method can successfully select predictors when the variables are highly correlated, and it can also identify variables…

基于距离协方差的独立成分分析AI 解读

This article introduces a novel statistical framework for independent component analysis (ICA) of multivariate data. We propose methodology for estimating mutually independent components, and a versatile resampling-based procedure for inference, including misspecification testing. Independent components are estimated by combining a nonparametric probability integral transformation with a generalized nonparametric whitening method based on distance covariance that…

记录链接中二部匹配的贝叶斯估计AI 解读

The bipartite record linkage task consists of merging two disparate datafiles containing information on two overlapping sets of entities. This is nontrivial in the absence of unique identifiers and it is important for a wide variety of applications given that it needs to be solved whenever we have to combine information from different sources. Most statistical techniques currently used for record linkage are derived from a seminal article by Fellegi and Sunter in 1969…

动态回归中单调性约束的恢复AI 解读

Dynamic regression models, including the quantile regression model and Aalen's additive hazards model, are widely adopted to investigate evolving covariate effects. Yet lack of monotonicity respecting with standard estimation procedures remains an outstanding issue. Advances have recently been made, but none provides a complete resolution. In this article, we propose a novel adaptive interpolation method to restore monotonicity respecting, by successively identifying and…

高维微观数据的合成控制框架：评估社区犯罪干预AI 解读

The synthetic control method is an increasingly popular tool for analysis of program efficacy. Here, it is applied to a neighborhood-specific crime intervention in Roanoke, VA, and several novel contributions are made to the synthetic control toolkit. We examine high-dimensional data at a granular level (the treated area has several cases, a large number of untreated comparison cases, and multiple outcome measures). Calibration is used to develop weights that exactly match…

论心理科学的可重复性AI 解读

Investigators from a large consortium of scientists recently performed a multi-year study in which they replicated 100 psychology experiments. Although statistically significant results were reported in 97% of the original studies, statistical significance was achieved in only 36% of the replicated studies. This article presents a reanalysis of these data based on a formal statistical model that accounts for publication bias by treating outcomes from unpublished studies as…

电力需求广义分位数预测：函数型数据方法AI 解读

Electricity load forecasts are an integral part of many decision-making processes in the electricity market. However, most literature on electricity load forecasting concentrates on deterministic forecasts, neglecting possibly important information about uncertainty. A more complete picture of future demand can be obtained by using distributional forecasts, allowing for more efficient decision-making. A predictive density can be fully characterized by tail measures such as…

通过消息传递实现大规模半参数回归的快速近似推断AI 解读

We show how the notion of message passing can be used to streamline the algebra and computer coding for fast approximate inference in large Bayesian semiparametric regression models. In particular, this approach is amenable to handling arbitrarily large models of particular types once a set of primitive operations is established. The approach is founded upon a message passing formulation of mean field variational Bayes that utilizes factor graph representations of…

识别记忆的贝叶斯竞赛模型AI 解读

Many psychological models use the idea of a trace, which represents a change in a person’s cognitive state that arises as a result of processing a given stimulus. These models assume that a trace is always laid down when a stimulus is processed. In addition, some of these models explain how response times (RTs) and response accuracies arise from a process in which the different traces race against each other. In this article, we present a Bayesian hierarchical model of RT…

遗传关联研究中检验 SNP 集合效应的广义 Higher CriticismAI 解读

It is of substantial interest to study the effects of genes, genetic pathways, and networks on the risk of complex diseases. These genetic constructs each contain multiple SNPs, which are often correlated and function jointly, and might be large in number. However, only a sparse subset of SNPs in a genetic construct is generally associated with the disease of interest. In this article, we propose the generalized higher criticism (GHC) to test for the association between an…

贝叶斯树式校准：以AX吸附剂碳捕集为应用AI 解读

In cases where field (or experimental) measurements are not available, computer models can model real physical or engineering systems to reproduce their outcomes. They are usually calibrated in light of experimental data to create a better representation of the real system. Statistical methods, based on Gaussian processes, for calibration and prediction have been especially important when the computer models are expensive and experimental data limited. In this article, we…

组成性支出数据的方向混合效应模型AI 解读

Compositional data are vectors of proportions defined on the unit simplex and this type of constrained data occur frequently in Government surveys. It is also possible for the compositional data to be correlated due to the clustering or grouping of the observations within small domains or areas. We propose a new class of the mixed model for compositional data based on the Kent distribution for directional data, where the random effects also have Kent distributions. One…

基于半竞争风险效用的非小细胞肺癌稳健治疗比较AI 解读

A design is presented for a randomized clinical trial comparing two second-line treatments, chemotherapy versus chemotherapy plus reirradiation, for treatment of recurrent non-small-cell lung cancer. The central research question is whether the potential efficacy benefit that adding reirradiation to chemotherapy may provide justifies its potential for increasing the risk of toxicity. The design uses two co-primary outcomes: time to disease progression or death, and time to…

分位数回归模型的聚类稳健 Bootstrap 推断AI 解读

In this article I develop a wild bootstrap procedure for cluster-robust inference in linear quantile regression models. I show that the bootstrap leads to asymptotically valid inference on the entire quantile regression process in a setting with a large number of small, heterogeneous clusters and provides consistent estimates of the asymptotic covariance function of that process. The proposed bootstrap procedure is easy to implement and performs well even when the number of…

随机超图的几何表示AI 解读

We introduce a novel parameterization of distributions on hypergraphs based on the geometry of points in Rd. The idea is to induce distributions on hypergraphs by placing priors on point configurations via spatial processes. This specification is then used to infer conditional independence models, or Markov structure, for multivariate distributions. This approach results in a broader class of conditional independence models beyond standard graphical models. Factorizations…

稳健最大关联估计量AI 解读

The maximum association between two multivariate variables X and Y is defined as the maximal value that a bivariate association measure between one-dimensional projections αtX and βtY can attain. Taking the Pearson correlation as projection index results in the first canonical correlation coefficient. We propose to use more robust association measures, such as Spearman’s or Kendall’s rank correlation, or association measures derived from bivariate scatter matrices. We study…

杠杆效应的非参数估计：稳健性与效率的权衡AI 解读

We consider two new approaches to nonparametric estimation of the leverage effect. The first approach uses stock prices alone. The second approach uses the data on stock prices as well as a certain volatility instrument, such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) or the Black–Scholes implied volatility. The theoretical justification for the instrument-based estimator relies on a certain invariance property, which can be exploited when…

用于多变量与对象数据的新型图两样本检验AI 解读

Two-sample tests for multivariate data and especially for non-Euclidean data are not well explored. This article presents a novel test statistic based on a similarity graph constructed on the pooled observations from the two samples. It can be applied to multivariate data and non-Euclidean data as long as a dissimilarity measure on the sample space can be defined, which can usually be provided by domain experts. Existing tests based on a similarity graph lack power either…

基于凹惩罚成对融合的亚组分析AI 解读

An important step in developing individualized treatment strategies is correct identification of subgroups of a heterogeneous population to allow specific treatment for each subgroup. This article considers the problem using samples drawn from a population consisting of subgroups with different mean values, along with certain covariates. We propose a penalized approach for subgroup analysis based on a regression model, in which heterogeneity is driven by unobserved latent…

协方差回归分析AI 解读

This article introduces covariance regression analysis for a p-dimensional response vector. The proposed method explores the regression relationship between the p-dimensional covariance matrix and auxiliary information. We study three types of estimators: maximum likelihood, ordinary least squares, and feasible generalized least squares estimators. Then, we demonstrate that these regression estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. Furthermore, we obtain the high…

用于有向无环图推断的分割 MCMCAI 解读

Acyclic digraphs are the underlying representation of Bayesian networks, a widely used class of probabilistic graphical models. Learning the underlying graph from data is a way of gaining insights about the structural properties of a domain. Structure learning forms one of the inference challenges of statistical graphical models. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, notably structure MCMC, to sample graphs from the posterior distribution given the data are probably the…

带标记复发过程在失效事件前的终末行为：半参数建模与估计AI 解读

Recurrent event processes with marker measurements are mostly and largely studied with forward time models starting from an initial event. Interestingly, the processes could exhibit important terminal behavior during a time period before occurrence of the failure event. A natural and direct way to study recurrent events prior to a failure event is to align the processes using the failure event as the time origin and to examine the terminal behavior by a backward time model.…

匹配观察研究中二元结局复合原假设的随机化推断与敏感性分析AI 解读

We present methods for conducting hypothesis testing and sensitivity analyses for composite null hypotheses in matched observational studies when outcomes are binary. Causal estimands discussed include the causal risk difference, causal risk ratio, and the effect ratio. We show that inference under the assumption of no unmeasured confounding can be performed by solving an integer linear program, while inference allowing for unmeasured confounding of a given strength requires…

参数子集似然推断中可忽略缺失机制的条件AI 解读

For likelihood-based inferences from data with missing values, models are generally needed for both the data and the missing-data mechanism. However, modeling the mechanism can be challenging, and parameters are often poorly identified. Rubin in 1976 showed that for likelihood and Bayesian inference, sufficient conditions for ignoring the missing data mechanism are (a) the missing data are missing at random (MAR), in the sense that missingness does not depend on the missing…