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事件发生时间测量误差的非参数校正：风险预测模型应用AI 解读

Mismeasured time to event data used as a predictor in risk prediction models will lead to inaccurate predictions. This arises in the context of self-reported family history, a time to event predictor often measured with error, used in Mendelian risk prediction models. Using validation data, we propose a method to adjust for this type of error. We estimate the measurement error process using a nonparametric smoothed Kaplan-Meier estimator, and use Monte Carlo integration to…

结构层级约束下的组正则化估计AI 解读

Variable selection for models including interactions between explanatory variables often needs to obey certain hierarchical constraints. Weak or strong structural hierarchy requires that the existence of an interaction term implies at least one or both associated main effects to be present in the model. Lately, this problem has attracted a lot of attention, but existing computational algorithms converge slow even with a moderate number of predictors. Moreover, in contrast to…

用于重复观测空间数据的因子 Copula 模型AI 解读

We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the…

物种发现的多臂老虎机：贝叶斯非参数方法AI 解读

Marco Battistona, Stefano Favarob* & Yee Whye Tehca Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University, Italyb Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto, Torino, Italyc Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomCONTACT Stefano Favaro stefano.favaro@unito.it Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Torino, 10124 Torino, Italy and Collegio Carlo Alberto, 10024 Moncalieri TO, ItalyColor…

尖峰与厚尾LASSOAI 解读

Despite the wide adoption of spike-and-slab methodology for Bayesian variable selection, its potential for penalized likelihood estimation has largely been overlooked. In this article, we bridge this gap by cross-fertilizing these two paradigms with the Spike-and-Slab LASSO procedure for variable selection and parameter estimation in linear regression. We introduce a new class of self-adaptive penalty functions that arise from a fully Bayes spike-and-slab formulation,…

非单调随机缺失数据的逆概率加权AI 解读

The development of coherent missing data models to account for nonmonotone missing at random (MAR) data by inverse probability weighting (IPW) remains to date largely unresolved. As a consequence, IPW has essentially been restricted for use only in monotone missing data settings. We propose a class of models for nonmonotone missing data mechanisms that spans the MAR model, while allowing the underlying full data law to remain unrestricted. For parametric specifications…

贝叶斯半参数多元密度反卷积AI 解读

We consider the problem of multivariate density deconvolution when interest lies in estimating the distribution of a vector valued random variable X but precise measurements on X are not available, observations being contaminated by measurement errors U. The existing sparse literature on the problem assumes the density of the measurement errors to be completely known. We propose robust Bayesian semiparametric multivariate deconvolution approaches when the measurement error…

充分利用因子模型中的维度优势AI 解读

Factor modeling is an essential tool for exploring intrinsic dependence structures among high-dimensional random variables. Much progress has been made for estimating the covariance matrix from a high-dimensional factor model. However, the blessing of dimensionality has not yet been fully embraced in the literature: much of the available data is often ignored in constructing covariance matrix estimates. If our goal is to accurately estimate a covariance matrix of a set of…

相关随机测度AI 解读

We develop correlated random measures, random measures where the atom weights can exhibit a flexible pattern of dependence, and use them to develop powerful hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. Hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models are usually built from completely random measures, a Poisson-process-based construction in which the atom weights are independent. Completely random measures imply strong independence assumptions in the corresponding hierarchical…

伴随终末事件的纵向数据条件建模AI 解读

We consider a random effects model for longitudinal data with the occurrence of an informative terminal event that is subject to right censoring. Existing methods for analyzing such data include the joint modeling approach using latent frailty and the marginal estimating equation approach using inverse probability weighting; in both cases the effect of the terminal event on the response variable is not explicit and thus not easily interpreted. In contrast, we treat the…

通过倾向得分加权平衡协变量AI 解读

Covariate balance is crucial for unconfounded descriptive or causal comparisons. However, lack of balance is common in observational studies. This article considers weighting strategies for balancing covariates. We define a general class of weights—the balancing weights—that balance the weighted distributions of the covariates between treatment groups. These weights incorporate the propensity score to weight each group to an analyst-selected target population. This class…

超高维加性模型中的误差方差估计AI 解读

Error variance estimation plays an important role in statistical inference for high-dimensional regression models. This article concerns with error variance estimation in high-dimensional sparse additive model. We study the asymptotic behavior of the traditional mean squared errors, the naive estimate of error variance, and show that it may significantly underestimate the error variance due to spurious correlations that are even higher in nonparametric models than linear…

基于类别匹配的混合模型预测AI 解读

Many practical problems are related to prediction, where the main interest is at subject (e.g., personalized medicine) or (small) sub-population (e.g., small community) level. In such cases, it is possible to make substantial gains in prediction accuracy by identifying a class that a new subject belongs to. This way, the new subject is potentially associated with a random effect corresponding to the same class in the training data, so that method of mixed model prediction…

基于特征簇进行估计与推断的一般框架AI 解读

Applied statistical problems often come with prespecified groupings to predictors. It is natural to test for the presence of simultaneous group-wide signal for groups in isolation, or for multiple groups together. Current tests for the presence of such signals include the classical F-test or a t-test on unsupervised group prototypes (either group centroids or first principal components). In this article, we propose test statistics that aim for power improvements over these…

ECA：非高斯分布下的高维椭圆成分分析AI 解读

We present a robust alternative to principal component analysis (PCA)—called elliptical component analysis (ECA)—for analyzing high-dimensional, elliptically distributed data. ECA estimates the eigenspace of the covariance matrix of the elliptical data. To cope with heavy-tailed elliptical distributions, a multivariate rank statistic is exploited. At the model-level, we consider two settings: either that the leading eigenvectors of the covariance matrix are nonsparse or that…

信息性观测时点与未知起点下的面板计数事件间隔分析AI 解读

In biomedical studies, one is often interested in repeat events with longitudinal observations occurring only intermittently, resulting in panel count data. The first stage of labor, measured through unit-increments of cervical dilation in pregnant women, provides such an example. Obstetricians are interested in assessing the gap time distribution of per-unit increments of cervical dilation for better management of labor process. Typically, only intermittent medical…

用于确定网络社区数量的网络交叉验证AI 解读

The stochastic block model (SBM) and its variants have been a popular tool for analyzing large network data with community structures. In this article, we develop an efficient network cross-validation (NCV) approach to determine the number of communities, as well as to choose between the regular stochastic block model and the degree corrected block model (DCBM). The proposed NCV method is based on a block-wise node-pair splitting technique, combined with an integrated step…

鞅差散度矩阵及其在平稳多元时间序列降维中的应用AI 解读

In this article, we introduce a new methodology to perform dimension reduction for a stationary multivariate time series. Our method is motivated by the consideration of optimal prediction and focuses on the reduction of the effective dimension in conditional mean of time series given the past information. In particular, we seek a contemporaneous linear transformation such that the transformed time series has two parts with one part being conditionally mean independent of…

离散价格变动中的日内随机波动率：动态 Skellam 模型AI 解读

We study intraday stochastic volatility for four liquid stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange using a new dynamic Skellam model for high-frequency tick-by-tick discrete price changes. Since the likelihood function is analytically intractable, we rely on numerical methods for its evaluation. Given the high number of observations per series per day (1000 to 10,000), we adopt computationally efficient methods including Monte Carlo integration. The intraday dynamics of…

两阶段抽样下的高效半参数推断及其遗传关联研究应用AI 解读

In modern epidemiological and clinical studies, the covariates of interest may involve genome sequencing, biomarker assay, or medical imaging and thus are prohibitively expensive to measure on a large number of subjects. A cost-effective solution is the two-phase design, under which the outcome and inexpensive covariates are observed for all subjects during the first phase and that information is used to select subjects for measurements of expensive covariates during the…

尼日利亚 PEPFAR 项目中抗逆转录病毒治疗经依从性传导的路径特定效应AI 解读

Since the early 2000s, evidence has accumulated for a significant differential effect of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral load suppression. This finding was replicated in our data from the Harvard President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) program in Nigeria. Investigators were interested in finding the source of these differences, i.e., understanding the mechanisms through which one regimen outperforms…

微生物群落分析的贝叶斯非参数排序方法AI 解读

Human microbiome studies use sequencing technologies to measure the abundance of bacterial species or Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) in samples of biological material. Typically the data are organized in contingency tables with OTU counts across heterogeneous biological samples. In the microbial ecology community, ordination methods are frequently used to investigate latent factors or clusters that capture and describe variations of OTU counts across biological samples.…

有限总体中心极限定理的一般形式及其因果推断应用AI 解读

Frequentists’ inference often delivers point estimators associated with confidence intervals or sets for parameters of interest. Constructing the confidence intervals or sets requires understanding the sampling distributions of the point estimators, which, in many but not all cases, are related to asymptotic Normal distributions ensured by central limit theorems. Although previous literature has established various forms of central limit theorems for statistical inference in…

PLEMT：广义指数倾斜混合模型的拟似然 EM 同质性检验AI 解读

Motivated by analyses of DNA methylation data, we propose a semiparametric mixture model, namely the generalized exponential tilt mixture model, to account for heterogeneity between differentially methylated and non-differentially methylated subjects in the cancer group, and capture the differences in higher order moments (e.g. mean and variance) between subjects in cancer and normal groups. A pairwise pseudolikelihood is constructed to eliminate the unknown nuisance…