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长度偏倚抽样与信息性删失下 Copula 及依赖度量的非参数推断AI 解读

Length-biased data are often encountered in cross-sectional surveys and prevalent-cohort studies on disease durations. Under length-biased sampling subjects with longer disease durations have greater chance to be observed. As a result, covariate values linked to the longer survivors are favored by the sampling mechanism. When the sampled durations are also subject to right censoring, the censoring is informative. Modeling dependence structure without adjusting for these…

无需预检跳跃的跳跃溢出检验AI 解读

This article develops statistical tools for testing conditional independence among the jump components of the daily quadratic variation, which we estimate using intraday data. To avoid sequential bias distortion, we do not pretest for the presence of jumps. If the null is true, our test statistic based on daily integrated jumps weakly converges to a Gaussian random variable if both assets have jumps. If instead at least one asset has no jumps, then the statistic approaches…

基于稀疏随机投影的整体定性处理效应检验AI 解读

In contrast to the classical "one size fits all" approach, precision medicine proposes the customization of individualized treatment regimes to account for patients' heterogeneity in response to treatments. Most of existing works in the literature focused on estimating optimal individualized treatment regimes. However, there has been less attention devoted to hypothesis testing regarding the existence of overall qualitative treatment effects, especially when there is a large…

复杂分组高维多响应模型的典型相关搜索特征选择AI 解读

High-dimensional multiresponse models with complex group structures in both the response variables and the covariates arise from current researches in important fields such as genetics and medicine. However, no enough research has been done on such models. One of a few researches, if not the only one, is the article by Li, Nan, and Zhu where the sparse group Lasso approach is extended to such models. In this article, we propose a novel approach named the sequential canonical…

合并多个观察性数据源估计因果效应AI 解读

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of multiple data sources for statistical analyses. We consider estimation of causal effects combining big main data with unmeasured confounders and smaller validation data with supplementary information on these confounders. Under the unconfoundedness assumption with completely observed confounders, the smaller validation data allow for constructing consistent estimators for causal effects, but the big main data…

用 D 概率比较和加权不完美模型AI 解读

), relying on evaluating parametric models relative to a nonparametric Bayesian reference using Kullback-Leibler divergence. D-probabilities are useful in goodness-of-fit assessments, in comparing imperfect models, and in providing model weights to be used in model aggregation. D-probabilities avoid some of the disadvantages of Bayesian model probabilities, such as large sensitivity to prior choice, and tend to place higher weight on a greater diversity of models. In an…

通过机制模型分析面板数据AI 解读

Panel data, also known as longitudinal data, consist of a collection of time series. Each time series, which could itself be multivariate, comprises a sequence of measurements taken on a distinct unit. Mechanistic modeling involves writing down scientifically motivated equations describing the collection of dynamic systems giving rise to the observations on each unit. A defining characteristic of panel systems is that the dynamic interaction between units should be…

对 Bradley Efron《预测、估计与归因》一文的讨论AI 解读

By noting the rapid growing trend of “pure prediction algorithms,” Professor Efron compares and bridges the statistics of the 20th Century (estimation and attribution) to that of the current fast g...

预测、估计与归因AI 解读

The scientific needs and computational limitations of the twentieth century fashioned classical statistical methodology. Both the needs and limitations have changed in the twenty-first, and so has the methodology. Large-scale prediction algorithms—neural nets, deep learning, boosting, support vector machines, random forests—have achieved star status in the popular press. They are recognizable as heirs to the regression tradition, but ones carried out at enormous scale and on…

生物医学与健康领域的经验似然方法AI 解读

Owen (1988, 1990) proposed an innovative empirical likelihood (EL) approach for the confidence interval of mean based on the complete data. EL is a pure nonparametric approach, which has been appli...

统计拓扑与随机星际介质AI 解读

We use topological methods to investigate the small-scale variation and local spatial characteristics of the interstellar medium (ISM) in three regions of the southern sky. We demonstrate that there are circumstances where topological methods can identify differences in distributions when conventional marginal or correlation analyses may not. We propose a nonparametric method for comparing two fields based on the counts of topological features and the geometry of the…

微生物组数据的贝叶斯图形成分回归AI 解读

An important task in microbiome studies is to test the existence of and give characterization to differences in the microbiome composition across groups of samples. Important challenges of this problem include the large within-group heterogeneities among samples and the existence of potential confounding variables that, when ignored, increase the chance of false discoveries and reduce the power for identifying true differences. We propose a probabilistic framework to…

MIMIX：用于设计实验微生物组数据的贝叶斯混合效应模型AI 解读

Recent advances in bioinformatics have made high-throughput microbiome data widely available, and new statistical tools are required to maximize the information gained from these data. For example, analysis of high-dimensional microbiome data from designed experiments remains an open area in microbiome research. Contemporary analyses work on metrics that summarize collective properties of the microbiome, but such reductions preclude inference on the fine-scale effects of…

常微分方程模型的贝叶斯最优设计及其生物科学应用AI 解读

Bayesian optimal design is considered for experiments where the response distribution depends on the solution to a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The motivation is an experiment to estimate parameters in the equations governing the transport of amino acids through cell membranes in human placentas. Decision-theoretic Bayesian design of experiments for such nonlinear models is conceptually very attractive, allowing the formal incorporation of prior…

事件发生时间数据中的社会网络依赖检验与估计AI 解读

Nowadays, events are spread rapidly along social networks. We are interested in whether people's responses to an event are affected by their friends' characteristics. For example, how soon will a person start playing a game given that his/her friends like it? Studying social network dependence is an emerging research area. In this work, we propose a novel latent spatial autocorrelation Cox model to study social network dependence with time-to-event data. The proposed model…

渐近独立阈值超越的层次时空建模及降水应用AI 解读

The statistical modeling of space-time extremes in environmental applications is key to understanding complex dependence structures in original event data and to generating realistic scenarios for impact models. In this context of high-dimensional data, we propose a novel hierarchical model for high threshold exceedances defined over continuous space and time by embedding a space-time Gamma process convolution for the rate of an exponential variable, leading to asymptotic…

参数维度增长下的简约模型平均AI 解读

Model averaging generally provides better predictions than model selection, but the existing model averaging methods cannot lead to parsimonious models. Parsimony is an especially important property when the number of parameters is large. To achieve a parsimonious model averaging coefficient estimator, we suggest a novel criterion for choosing weights. Asymptotic properties are derived in two practical scenarios: (i) one or more correct models exist in the candidate model…

皮层表面 fMRI 数据分析的贝叶斯一般线性模型方法AI 解读

Cortical surface fMRI (cs-fMRI) has recently grown in popularity versus traditional volumetric fMRI. In addition to offering better whole-brain visualization, dimension reduction, removal of extraneous tissue types, and improved alignment of cortical areas across subjects, it is also more compatible with common assumptions of Bayesian spatial models. However, as no spatial Bayesian model has been proposed for cs-fMRI data, most analyses continue to employ the classical…

以密度为响应的加性函数回归AI 解读

We propose and investigate additive density regression, a novel additive functional regression model for situations where the responses are random distributions that can be viewed as random densities and the predictors are vectors. Data in the form of samples of densities or distributions are increasingly encountered in statistical analysis and there is a need for flexible regression models that accommodate random densities as responses. Such models are of special interest…

基于期望条件特征函数的独立性检验度量AI 解读

We propose a novel class of independence measures for testing independence between two random vectors based on the discrepancy between the conditional and the marginal characteristic functions. The relation between our index and other similar measures is studied, which indicates that they all belong to a large framework of reproducing kernel Hilbert space. If one of the variables is categorical, our asymmetric index extends the typical ANOVA to a kernel ANOVA that can test a…

基于 L₂ 范数的简便高维两样本检验AI 解读

Testing the equality of two means is a fundamental inference problem. For high-dimensional data, the Hotelling’s T2-test either performs poorly or becomes inapplicable. Several modifications have been proposed to address this issue. However, most of them are based on asymptotic normality of the null distributions of their test statistics which inevitably requires strong assumptions on the covariance. We study this problem thoroughly and propose an L2-norm based test that…

具有长程依赖的曲线时间序列AI 解读

We introduce methods and theory for functional or curve time series with long-range dependence. The temporal sum of the curve process is shown to be asymptotically normally distributed, the conditions for this covering a functional version of fractionally integrated autoregressive moving averages. We also construct an estimate of the long-run covariance function, which we use, via functional principal component analysis, in estimating the orthonormal functions spanning the…

用于二元时间序列计算机实验的广义高斯过程模型AI 解读

Non-Gaussian observations such as binary responses are common in some computer experiments. Motivated by the analysis of a class of cell adhesion experiments, we introduce a generalized Gaussian process model for binary responses, which shares some common features with standard GP models. In addition, the proposed model incorporates a flexible mean function that can capture different types of time series structures. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are derived, and an…

函数型删失分位数回归AI 解读

We propose a functional censored quantile regression model to describe the time-varying relationship between time-to-event outcomes and corresponding functional covariates. The time-varying effect is modeled as an unspecified function that is approximated via B-splines. A generalized approximate cross-validation method is developed to select the number of knots by minimizing the expected loss. We establish asymptotic properties of the method and the knot selection procedure.…