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十年人口普查漏计的经验贝叶斯估计AI 解读

On April 1, 1990, the decennial census for the United States will be conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. By December 31, 1990, the Census Bureau is specified by law to submit state population counts for the purpose of reapportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives, and by March 31, 1991, to submit small-area population counts for the purpose of redistricting. Census counts are used in a variety of other ways: for revenue-sharing formulas between different…

单隐层前馈网络学习的若干渐近结果AI 解读

We investigate the properties of a recursive estimation procedure (the method of “back-propagation”) for a class of nonlinear regression models (single hidden-layer feedforward network models) recently developed by cognitive scientists. The results follow from more general results for a class of recursive m estimators, obtained using theorems of Ljung (1977) and Walk (1977) for the method of stochastic approximation. Conditions are given ensuring that the back-propagation…

最大熵与彩票AI 解读

The distribution on m-tuples of the first M integers is estimated from marginals of the distribution. This problem is of interest in determining unpopular numbers in lotto games. In Canada's Lotto 6/49 the proportion of tickets purchased in previous games containing each number is available. Under certain conditions the limiting distribution subject to the observed marginals is the constrained maximum entropy distribution. This distribution is estimated, and Monte Carlo…

不规则纵向数据中发生率与诊断误差率的联合估计AI 解读

Longitudinal studies often involve the repeated diagnosis across time of each patient's status with respect to a progressive categorical process. When the occurrence of a change in status is not readily apparent, two factors can make modeling and assessing the incidence rates of progression difficult. First, because diagnoses may be difficult, they may not be performed with the frequency necessary to pinpoint exact times of incidence. Second, uncertainty in the diagnostic…

致畸效应的定量风险评估AI 解读

This article presents a quantitative procedure for using a “benchmark dose” to obtain low-dose risk estimates for reproductive and developmental toxic effects. This procedure combines the best features of the previously proposed methods for handling litter effects for teratology data and the currently used methods for quantitative risk assessment. The beta-binomial distribution is used to account for litter effects, and the Weibull dose—response model is used for modeling…

调整美国1980年人口与住房普查结果AI 解读

In 1980, several cities and states sued the U.S. Census Bureau to correct census results. This correction would adjust for the differential undercounting of Blacks and Hispanics, especially in cities. In this article, the authors, each of whom testified for New York City and State in their joint lawsuit against the Census Bureau, describe the likely pattern of the undercount and present a method to adjust for it. We first explain why the undercount is concentrated among…

估计年龄构成时，两阶段抽样真的更好吗？AI 解读

The two-phase sampling design has been traditionally used in ecology applications to estimate age composition. With regard to both economic and statistical considerations, however, the two-phase design may yield estimates of the age composition that are no better than can be obtained using simple random sampling. This article shows that the optimality of the two-phase sampling design depends upon (a) survey objectives, (b) per-unit sampling costs, and (c) the predictive…

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使用 t 分布进行稳健统计建模AI 解读

The t distribution provides a useful extension of the normal for statistical modeling of data sets involving errors with longer-than-normal tails. An analytical strategy based on maximum likelihood for a general model with multivariate t errors is suggested and applied to a variety of problems, including linear and nonlinear regression, robust estimation of the mean and covariance matrix with missing data, unbalanced multivariate repeated-measures data, multivariate modeling…

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调查抽样的统一理论与策略AI 解读

Part A: Unified Theory of Sampling. Introduction. Principal Notation and Formulation of the Main Problem. Design-Based Estimation. Admissibility and Other Optimality Properties of Sampling Designs. Sufficiency and Related Concepts in Survey Sampling. Sample Survey and General Statistical Model. Further Details on Likelihood and Bayesian Approach. Predictive Approach. Robustness. Concluding Remarks. Appendices: An Optimality Property of the Sample Mean. Alternative Models and…

可靠性与寿命模型中的参数估计AI 解读

Offers an applications-oriented treatment of parameter estimation from both complete and censored samples; contains notations, simplified formats for estimates, graphical techniques, and numerous tables and charts allowing users to calculate estimates and analyze sample data quickly and easily. Anno

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生命科学统计学AI 解读

1. Introduction. Statistics and the Life Sciences. Examples and Overview. 2. Description of Populations and Samples. Introduction. Frequency Distributions: Techniques for Data. Frequency Distributions: Shapes and Examples. Descriptive Statistics: Measures of Center. Boxplots. Measures of Dispersion. Effect of Transformation of Variables (Optional). Samples and Populations: Statistical Inference. Perspective. 3. Random Sampling, Probability, and the Binomial Distribution.…

方向数据的Bootstrap置信区域AI 解读

Methods are proposed for constructing bootstrap confidence regions for the mean direction of a random p-dimensional unit vector X with an arbitrary unimodal distribution on the p sphere. The approach of this article differs from that of other authors in that it is based on pivotal statistics. A general pivotal method is introduced that produces a wide variety of confidence regions on general p-dimensional spheres; included are confidence cones and likelihood-based regions.…

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最大熵与彩票AI 解读

The distribution on m-tuples of the first M integers is estimated from marginals of the distribution. This problem is of interest in determining unpopular numbers in lotto games. In Canada's Lotto 6/49 the proportion of tickets purchased in previous games containing each number is available. Under certain conditions the limiting distribution subject to the observed marginals is the constrained maximum entropy distribution. This distribution is estimated, and Monte Carlo…

不规则纵向数据中发生率与诊断错误率的联合估计AI 解读

Longitudinal studies often involve the repeated diagnosis across time of each patient's status with respect to a progressive categorical process. When the occurrence of a change in status is not readily apparent, two factors can make modeling and assessing the incidence rates of progression difficult. First, because diagnoses may be difficult, they may not be performed with the frequency necessary to pinpoint exact times of incidence. Second, uncertainty in the diagnostic…

总量时期生育率预测：微观动态新古典生育模型的时间序列性质AI 解读

This article demonstrates the value of microdata for understanding the effect of wages on life cycle fertility dynamics. Conventional estimates of neoclassical economic fertility models obtained from linear aggregate time series regressions are widely criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted for serial correlation. Moreover, the forecasting power of these aggregative neoclassical models has been shown to be inferior when compared with conventional time series models that…

调整1980年美国人口与住房普查AI 解读

In 1980, several cities and states sued the U.S. Census Bureau to correct census results. This correction would adjust for the differential undercounting of Blacks and Hispanics, especially in cities. In this article, the authors, each of whom testified for New York City and State in their joint lawsuit against the Census Bureau, describe the likely pattern of the undercount and present a method to adjust for it. We first explain why the undercount is concentrated among…

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