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小区域估计的拟经验贝叶斯方法AI 解读

This article develops an empirical Bayes-type approach for small area estimation based only on the specification of a set of conditionally independent hierarchical mean and variance functions describing the first two moments of the process generating the data. The objective of the analysis is to draw inference about the intermediate or the random means. We combine the quasi-likelihood functions to construct the quasi-posterior density of the random means conditional on the…

信息冲突何时产生渐近正态后验？AI 解读

When data conflicts with quantified prior beliefs, seemingly small changes in the functional form of the prior and/or likelihood can have a profound effect on posterior inferences. This article provides results on asymptotic forms of the posterior when two information sources conflict. In particular, let x be from the likelihood p 2(x − θ) with an unknown location parameter θ, with p 1(θ) the prior on θ. Sufficient conditions on p 1 and p 2 are provided to ensure that as x →…

指数族贝叶斯推断中的后验累积量关系AI 解读

For Bayesian inference in one-parameter contexts where either the likelihood or the prior has an exponential family form, relationships are derived for posterior moments and cumulants of (functions of) both the canonical and the expectation parameters. The identities exhibited generalize the simple relationships well known in the conjugate analysis case. Applications of these results are indicated in the areas of Bayesian robustness and approximation. In particular, results…

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利用提名样本估计分布函数AI 解读

A nomination sample consists of independently distributed maxima from subsamples of a population with the same underlying distribution. Nomination sampling occurs when only the item with largest value is chosen from each of n independent subsamples. If the subsamples differ in size, then these observed order statistics are not identically distributed, so estimation schemes built on assumptions of independently and identically distributed (iid) data are most likely…

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观察研究中治疗效应的 Hodges–Lehmann 点估计AI 解读

A Hodges-Lehmann point estimate of an additive treatment effect is a robust estimate derived from the randomization distribution of a rank test. This article shows how to carry out a sensitivity analysis for such an estimate in an observational study where treatments are not randomly assigned. Two cases are discussed in detail: matched pairs and the comparison of two unmatched groups. The method uses a model for the distribution of treatment assignments when hidden biases…

高频购买品类的消费者行为：异质性风险函数模型的估计与管理启示AI 解读

Abstract We apply hazard function models to marketing data on household purchases of disposable diapers to calibrate repeat-purchase and brand-switching behaviors. In the model we allow for household-specific unobserved traits. Hazard function models with fixed-effects heterogeneity specification are computationally feasible. We directly compare the results of fixed- and random-effects heterogeneity specifications in the context of parametric and nonparametric…

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线性回归模型生成对象的聚类AI 解读

This article describes a new clustering method designed for objects generated by a linear model with different states. The objective is to divide the objects into clusters, with each cluster containing only the objects taken when the system is in one particular state. The cluster centroids are matrices of predetermined rank and can be computed by the singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm. The clustering problem is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem.…

反卷积、带宽与四阶谱AI 解读

In the largest application area of time series analysis—geophysical exploration—the underlying innovations sequence is of primary interest and must be estimated. This sequence is estimated by deconvolving the non-Gaussian, noninvertible time series. This involves estimation of a phase-shift correction from the time series, which can be carried out by maximizing the kurtosis of the series. Unfortunately, the method is hampered by the fact that the time series is typically…

评论：人口分析中的不确定性AI 解读

The article by Robinson, Ahmed, Das Gupta, and Woodrow (RAGW hereafter) gives the basic logic of Demographic Analysis (DA) along with the primary data sources used to estimate components of change in population. RAGW give almost all of the population estimates and associated undercount rates available from the DA method. These include coverage estimates by demographic subgroup (with very coarse age groupings), as well as patterns in undercount rates across several censuses.…

基于人口分析的1990年美国人口普查覆盖率估计AI 解读

This article presents estimates of net coverage of the national population in the 1990 census, based on the method of demographic analysis. The general techniques of demographic analysis as an analytic tool for coverage measurement are discussed, including use of the demographic accounting equation, data components, and strengths and limitations of the method. Patterns of coverage displayed by the 1990 estimates are described, along with similarities or differences from…

有界随机变量线性组合的改进Eaton界及统计应用AI 解读

The problem of evaluating tail probabilities for linear combinations of independent, possibly nonidentically distributed, bounded random variables arises in various statistical contexts, mainly connected with nonparametric inference. A remarkable inequality on such tail probabilities has been established by Eaton. The significance of Eaton's inequality is substantiated by a recent result of Pinelis showing that the minimum B EP of Eaton's bound B E and a traditional…

调查抽样中的广义迭代比例校准程序AI 解读

We propose the name generalized raking for the class of procedures developed in this article, because the classical raking ratio of W. E. Deming is a special case. Generalized raking can be used for estimation in surveys with auxiliary information in the form of known marginal counts in a frequency table in two or more dimensions. An important property of the generalized raking weights is that they reproduce the known marginal counts when applied to the categorical variables…

2×2交叉试验中个体内变异的精确推断AI 解读

The comparison of primary interest in a 2 × 2 crossover trial typically concerns the effect of the treatments, say A and B, on the mean response level. This article deals with another important aspect, namely the within-subject response variability under A and B. Differences in drug formulation and/or administration may lead to considerable differences in within-subject variability, whatever the difference in terms of mean level. Consideration of both these aspects may,…

合并独立检验的若干统计程序AI 解读

In many applications available data from several independent studies address the same question, and it is essential to have statistical methods for combining the results from the different studies. This article addresses this issue in two setups: (1) a testing hypothesis concerning the common mean vector of two independent linear models having different variances, and (2) a testing hypothesis concerning a common variance component in linear models involving two variance…

多个位置参数极差的置信上界构造AI 解读

This article considers the construction of an upper confidence bound on the range of a set of k location parameters, such as the k treatment effects in a one-way layout. This confidence bound will be useful to the experimenter in assessing the “equivalence” of the location parameters. Some general theoretical results are presented and the case of normally distributed data is considered in detail, with accompanying tables of confidence bounds. Some examples of the application…

删失回归数据的序贯分析AI 解读

Motivated by Buckley and James' modification of the least squares procedure for censored regression data, we derive a score process that incorporates the time evolution and handles staggered entry data in a natural way. By censored regression data we mean that the responses are subject to a possible right censorship. Such cases often arise from clinical trials and industrial life tests. The score process can be interpreted as a weighted comparison of (transformed) survival…

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调查中的回答与跳题顺序错误：离散传染回归分析AI 解读

Skip sequencing in surveys reduces costs but also acts as a mechanism of contagion in transmitting error from one survey item to subsequent items. The error process is modeled as a contagious, stochastic one in which both the initiating and induced errors follow the Poisson distribution. The resulting compound distribution, first used by Thomas in 1949, is then used as the basis of a discrete contagious regression model in which characteristics of respondents, subject…

当前状态数据的回归分析：母乳喂养应用AI 解读

Current-status data are often collected for use in survival analyses, because this type of data generally is considered to be more reliable than retrospective reports of when an event occurred. Although techniques for calculating mean survival time from current-status data are well known, their use in multiple regression models is somewhat troublesome. Using data on current breast-feeding behavior, this article considers a number of techniques that have been suggested in the…

漏计估计中未确定登记状态插补的层级逻辑回归模型AI 解读

In the process of collecting Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) data to evaluate census coverage, it is inevitable that there will be some individuals whose enumeration status (outcome in the census-PES match) remains unresolved even after extensive field follow-up operations. Earlier work developed a logistic regression framework for imputing the probability that unresolved individuals were enumerated in the census, so that the probability of having been enumerated is allowed to…

捕获概率异质性下人口估计的三样本多重再捕获方法AI 解读

A central assumption in the standard capture-recapture approach to the estimation of the size of a closed population is the homogeneity of the “capture” probabilities. In this article we develop an approach that allows for varying susceptibility to capture through individual parameters using a variant of the Rasch model from psychological measurement situations. Our approach requires an additional recapture. In the context of census undercount estimation, this requirement…