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比较预期与实现结果：理论及收入变化应用AI 解读

Household surveys often elicit respondents' intentions or predictions of future outcomes. The survey questions may ask respondents to choose among a selection of (ordered) response categories. If panel data or repeated cross-sections are available, then predictions may be compared with realized outcomes. The categorical nature of the predictions data complicates this comparison, however. Generalizing previous findings on binary intentions data, we derive bounds on features…

利用最后一次迁移数据估计多状态转移风险率AI 解读

Following United Nations recommendations, many countries collect or publish internal migration data in last-move form, despite continuing uncertainty among researchers about how to estimate transition rates and probabilities from such information. “Last-move” data are a form of retrospective event history in which the only available information for each observational unit are the state at the time of a survey (ω), the last previous state (ψ), and the time at which the ψ → ω…

偏头痛治疗的元分析：整合异质研究设计的信息AI 解读

Migraine headache is a common condition in the United States for which a wide range of drug and nondrug treatments are available. There is wide disagreement about which treatments are most effective; meta-analysis of existing clinical trials can help to bring existing evidence to bear on this question. Conducting a meta-analysis is a challenging statistical problem because of the absence of a uniform accepted definition of headache syndromes, the diversity of treatments, and…

生物序列比对中的马尔可夫结构AI 解读

The alignment of multiple homologous biopolymer sequences is crucial in research on protein modeling and engineering, molecular evolution, and prediction in terms of both gene function and gene product structure. In this article we provide a coherent view of the two recent models used for multiple sequence alignment—the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the block-based motif model—to develop a set of new algorithms that have both the sensitivity of the block-based model and the…

函数索引加权对数秩统计量的多适应性AI 解读

Two-sample weighted log-rank statistics are used in the presence of right censoring to test whether failure times from two populations have different survival distributions. Kosorok has showed that large families of these statistics form stochastic processes indexed by weight functions, and that these function-indexed statistics can be used to construct versatile test procedures simultaneously sensitive to a wide array of both ordered hazards and stochastic ordering…

比较多个处理效应时结合单侧与双侧检验的优势AI 解读

We consider the one-way layout for comparing k treatment effects μ i , 1 ≤ i ≤ k. Hayter earlier proposed a one-sided studentized range test (OSRT) for testing the null hypothesis H μO: μ1 = μ2 = ··· = μ k against the simple ordered alternative HA : μ1 ≤ μ2 ≤ ··· ≤ μ k with at least one strict inequality. The OSRT gives a set of simultaneous confidence intervals for all ordered pairwise differences μ j - μ i , i < j. These intervals are one-sided and have infinite upper…

数据驱动的独立性秩检验AI 解读

We introduce new rank tests for testing independence. The new testing procedures are sensitive not only for grade linear correlation, but also for grade correlations of higher-order polynomials. The number of polynomials involved is determined by the data. Model selection is combined with application of the score test in the selected model. Whereas well-known tests as Spearman's test or Hoeffding's test may completely break down for alternatives that are dependent but have…

复合插补与不可忽略抽样比下调查数据的方差估计AI 解读

This article considers variance estimation for Horvitz–Thompson–type estimated totals based on survey data with imputed non-respondents and with nonnegligible sampling fractions. A method based on a variance decomposition is proposed. Our method can be applied to complicated situations where a composite of some deterministic and/or random imputation methods is used, including using imputed data in subsequent imputations. Although here linearization or Taylor expansion–type…

广义线性模型的可识别性、非正常先验与 Gibbs 抽样AI 解读

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are widely used in the fitting of generalized linear models (GLMs). Such model fitting is somewhat of an art form, requiring suitable trickery and tuning to obtain results in which one can have confidence. A wide range of practical issues arise. The focus here is on parameter identifiability and posterior propriety. In particular, we clarify that nonidentifiability arises for usual GLMs and discuss its implications for simulation-based…

单调凹前沿函数的估计AI 解读

Abstract When analyzing the productivity of firms, one may want to compare how the firms transform a set of inputs x (typically labor, energy or capital) into an output y (typically a quantity of goods produced). The economic efficiency of a firm is then defined in terms of its ability to operate close to or on the production frontier, the boundary of the production set. The frontier function gives the maximal level of output attainable by a firm for a given combination of…

高崩溃点秩回归AI 解读

A weighted rank estimate is proposed that has 50% breakdown and is asymptotically normal at rate √n. Based on this theory, inferential procedures, including asymptotic confidence and tests, and diagnostic procedures, such as studentized residuals, are developed. The influence function of the estimate is derived and shown to be continuous and bounded everywhere in (x, Y) space. Examples show that robustness against outlying high-leverage clusters may approach that of the…

一类局部与全局稳健的回归估计量AI 解读

We present a new class of regression estimates called generalized τ estimates. These estimates are defined by minimizing the τ scale of the weighted residuals, with weights that penalize high-leverage observations. Like the τ estimates, the generalized τ estimates utilize for their definition two loss functions, ρ1 and ρ2, which together with the weights can be chosen to achieve simultaneously high breakdown point, finite gross error sensitivity, and high efficiency. We…

复发间隔生存函数的非参数估计AI 解读

Recurrent event data are frequently encountered in studies with longitudinal designs. Let the recurrence time be the time between two successive recurrent events. Recurrence times can be treated as a type of correlated survival data in statistical analysis. In general, because of the ordinal nature of recurrence times, statistical methods that are appropriate for standard correlated survival data in marginal models may not be applicable to recurrence time data. Specifically,…

含随机效应与测量误差的重复事件半参数回归AI 解读

Statistical methodology is presented for the regression analysis of multiple events in the presence of random effects and measurement error. Omitted covariates are modeled as random effects. Our approach to parameter estimation and significance testing is to start with a naive model of semiparametric Poisson process regression, and then to adjust for random effects and any possible covariate measurement error. We illustrate the techniques with data from a randomized clinical…

利用子抽样预测空间累积分布函数AI 解读

The spatial cumulative distribution function (SCDF) is a random function that provides a statistical summary of a random field over a spatial domain of interest. In this article we develop a spatial subsampling method for predicting an SCDF based on observations made on a hexagonal grid, similar to the one used in the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We show that under quite general conditions, the proposed…

来源国社会项目对不同类别赴美移民的影响AI 解读

"This article uses a unique set of pooled cross-sectional and time series data to examine the annual rate of U.S. immigration during 1972-1991 from 60 source countries. One distinguishing feature of the article is that it breaks out and cross-classifies various classes of immigrants--numerically limited versus numerically exempt and new immigrant versus adjustment of status. A second distinguishing feature is that it utilizes a unique vector of variables relating to the…

含“未回答”响应的顾客满意度有序数据分层潜变量模型AI 解读

We propose an item response theory model for ordinal customer satisfaction data where the probability of each response is a function of latent person and question parameters and of cutoffs for the ordinal response categories. This structure was incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model by Albert and Chib. We extend this formulation by modeling item nonresponse, coded as “no answer” (NA), as due to either lack of a strong opinion or indifference to the entire question.…

医疗服务利用差异分析中的层级广义线性模型AI 解读

In recent years many studies have reported large differences in the use of medical treatments and procedures across geographic regions, hospitals, and individual health care providers. Beyond reporting on the extent of observed variations, these studies examine the role of contributing factors including patient, regional, and provider characteristics. In addition, they may assess the relation between health care processes and outcomes, such as patient mortality, morbidity,…

生态推断研究的未来：对 Freedman 等人的评论AI 解读

I appreciate the editor's invitation to reply to Freedman et al.'s (1998) review of A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data (Princeton University Press.) I welcome this scholarly critique and JASA's decision to publish in this field. Ecological inference is a large and very important area for applications that is especially rich with open statistical questions. I hope this discussion stimulates much new…

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