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论剖面似然AI 解读

We show that semiparametric profile likelihoods, where the nuisance parameter has been profiled out, behave like ordinary likelihoods in that they have a quadratic expansion. In this expansion the score function and the Fisher information are replaced by the efficient score function and efficient Fisher information. The expansion may be used, among others, to prove the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator, to derive the asymptotic chi-squared distribution…

不依赖反事实的因果推断AI 解读

A popular approach to the framing and answering of causal questions relies on the idea of counterfactuals: Outcomes that would have been observed had the world developed differently; for example, if the patient had received a different treatment. By definition, one can never observe such quantities, nor assess empirically the validity of any modeling assumptions made about them, even though one's conclusions may be sensitive to these assumptions. Here I argue that for making…

多维纵向数据：从连续、离散或事件时间响应估计治疗效应AI 解读

Multidimensional data arise when a number of different response variables are required to measure the outcome of interest. Examples of such outcomes include quality of life, cognitive ability, and health status. The goal of this article is to develop a methodology to estimate a treatment effect from multidimensional data that have been collected longitudinally using continuous, discrete, or time-to-event responses or a mixture of these types of responses. A transformation of…

设计性缺失下的功效计算：铅暴露与注意力随访研究AI 解读

Longitudinal designs often change at critical times based on available funding, staffing, scientific opportunities, and subjects. This article presents three levels of investigation into missingness by design in a partially completed longitudinal study: Missingness that is completely at random (MCAR), at random (MAR), and nonignorable (MN). We first derive new expressions for the asymptotic variance and power based on multivariate normal data that are either MCAR or missing…

通过稳健 Probit 模型进行风险评估及其毒理学应用AI 解读

Various frameworks have been suggested for assessing the risk associated with continuous toxicity outcomes. The first formulates the effect of exposure on the adverse effect via a simple normal model and then computes the risk function using tail probabilities from the standard normal distribution. Because this risk function depends heavily on the assumed model, it may be sensitive to model misspecification. Recently, a semiparametric approach that utilizes an alternative…

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两样本多状态加速停留时间模型AI 解读

Many medical studies involve observations of patients experiencing multiple consecutive states during their follow-up. Since treatments may have differential effects on these states, comparison is of interest with respect to individual sojourn times. In this article I generalize the univariate accelerated failure time model for multistate processes and model the treatment effects as state-specific time scale changes. I propose a two-sample inference procedure that…

结合倾向得分匹配与预后协变量的额外调整AI 解读

Propensity score matching refers to a class of multivariate methods used in comparative studies to construct treated and matched control samples that have similar distributions on many covariates. This matching is the observational study analog of randomization in ideal experiments, but is far less complete as it can only balance the distribution of observed covariates, whereas randomization balances the distribution of all covariates, both observed and unobserved. An…

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基于主 Hessian 方向的交互式树结构回归AI 解读

An interactive approach to tree-structured regression is introduced. Unlike other procedures driven by cost optimization, this approach focuses on the exploration of geometric information in the data. The procedure begins with finding a direction along which the regression surface bends the most. This direction is used for splitting the data into two regions. Within each region, another direction is found, and the partition is made in the same manner. The process continues…

自变量无测量误差或有测量误差时的聚类数据非参数函数估计AI 解读

We consider local polynomial kernel regression with a single covariate for clustered data using estimating equations. We assume that at most m < ∞ observations are available on each cluster. In the case of random regressors, with no measurement error in the predictor, we show that it is generally the best strategy to ignore entirely the correlation structure within each cluster and instead pretend that all observations are independent. In the further special case of…

随机过程的条件最小体积预测区域AI 解读

Motivated by interval/region prediction in nonlinear time series, we propose a minimum volume (MV) predictor for a strictly stationary process. The MV predictor varies with respect to the current position in the State space and has the minimum Lebesgue measure among all regions with the nominal coverage probability. We have established consistency, convergence rates, and asymptotic normality for both coverage probability and Lebesgue measure of the estimated MV predictor…

使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛构建系统发育树AI 解读

We describe a Bayesian method based on Markov chain simulation to study the phylogenetic relationship in a group of DNA sequences. Under simple models of mutational events, our method produces a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the conditional distribution of the phylogeny given the observed sequences. Our algorithm strikes a reasonable balance between the desire to move globally through the space of phylogenies and the need to make computationally feasible…

利用序贯重要性抽样拟合计数与捕杀数据的种群动态模型AI 解读

For prudent wildlife management based on population dynamics models, it is important to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the management advice. Much parameter uncertainty originates when it is not possible to parameterize the population management model for a population of interest using data from that population alone. Instead, information about parameter values obtained from other populations of the same species, or even from similar species, must be used. In…

融合人口普查、覆盖调查与人口学分析的贝叶斯方法AI 解读

Demographic analysis of data on births, deaths, and migration and coverage measurement surveys that use capture-recapture methods have both been used to assess U.S. Census counts. These approaches have established that unadjusted Census counts are seriously flawed for groups such as young and middle-aged African-American men. There is considerable interest in methods that combine information from the Census, coverage measurement surveys, and demographic information to…

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计量经济学实践：方法与应用论文集AI 解读

Part 1 Specification analysis and aggregation. Part 2 Distributed lags. Part 3 Errors in variables and panel data. Part 4 Applications. Part 5 Data issues.

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贝叶斯方法：面向统计学家与跨学科研究者的分析AI 解读

1. Introductory statistical concepts 2. The discrete version of Bayes' theorem 3. Models with a single unknown parameter 4. The expected utility hypothesis and its alternatives 5. Models with several unknown parameters 6. Prior structures, posterior smoothing, and Bayes-Stein estimation Guide to worked examples Guide to self-study exercises.