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变量含测量误差问题中适应设计分布的局部多项式估计AI 解读

Local polynomial estimators are popular techniques for nonparametric regression estimation and have received great attention in the literature. Their simplest version, the local constant estimator, can be easily extended to the errors-in-variables context by exploiting its similarity with the deconvolution kernel density estimator. The generalization of the higher order versions of the estimator, however, is not straightforward and has remained an open problem for the last…

具有序列相关的多类别变量之间的依赖检验AI 解读

The contingency table literature on tests for dependence among discrete multicategory variables is extensive. Standard tests assume, however, that draws are independent and only limited results exist on the effect of serial dependency—a problem that is important in areas such as economics, finance, medical trials, and meteorology. This article proposes new tests of independence based on canonical correlations from dynamically augmented reduced rank regressions. The tests…

利用非光滑惩罚选择有限混合模型的阶数AI 解读

Order selection is a fundamental and challenging problem in the application of finite mixture models. In this article, we develop a new penalized likelihood approach. The new method, modified smoothly clipped absolute deviation (MSCAD), deviates from information-based methods such as Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) by introducing two penalty functions that depend on the mixing proportions and the component parameters. It is…

估计最大化结局的决策规则：母乳喂养应用AI 解读

To estimate the sequence of actions that optimizes response in a longitudinal setting, it is important to study the actions as part of a set of decision rules rather than in a series of single-action comparisons. We take as our motivating example the estimation of the set of decision rules for the duration of breastfeeding with a view to maximizing infant growth. Breastfeeding has many well-recognized beneficial effects on health and development. However observational…

统计交互作用的多重稳健推断AI 解读

A primary focus of an increasing number of scientific studies is to determine whether two exposures interact in the effect that they produce on an outcome of interest. Interaction is commonly assessed by fitting regression models in which the linear predictor includes the product between those exposures. When the main interest lies in the interaction, this approach is not entirely satisfactory because it is prone to (possibly severe) bias when the main exposure effects or…

采用非光滑惩罚的有限混合模型阶数选择AI 解读

Order selection is a fundamental and challenging problem in the application of finite mixture models. We develop a new penalized likelihood approach that we call MSCAD. MSCAD deviates from information-based methods, such as Akaike information criterion and the Bayes information criterion, by introducing two penalty functions that depend on the mixing proportions and the component parameters. It is consistent in estimating both the order of the mixture model and the mixing…

高维情形下的平滑截断绝对偏差估计AI 解读

The smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) estimator, proposed by Fan and Li, has many desirable properties, including continuity, sparsity, and unbiasedness. The SCAD estimator also has the (asymptotically) oracle property when the dimension of covariates is fixed or diverges more slowly than the sample size. In this article we study the SCAD estimator in high-dimensional settings where the dimension of covariates can be much larger than the sample size. First, we…

利用 EM 算法构造缺失数据问题的模型选择准则AI 解读

We consider novel methods for the computation of model selection criteria in missing-data problems based on the output of the EM algorithm. The methodology is very general and can be applied to numerous situations involving incomplete data within an EM framework, from covariates missing at random in arbitrary regression models to nonignorably missing longitudinal responses and/or covariates. Toward this goal, we develop a class of information criteria for missing-data…

二元结局预测中变量选择的随机优化比较及卫生政策应用AI 解读

Traditional variable-selection strategies in generalized linear models (GLMs) seek to optimize a measure of predictive accuracy without regard for the cost of data collection. When the purpose of such model building is the creation of predictive scales to be used in future studies with constrained budgets, the standard approach may not be optimal. We propose a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework for variable selection in binary-outcome GLMs where the budget for data…

预测变量轨迹聚类间响应密度变化的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

In epidemiology, it is often of interest to assess how individuals with different trajectories over time in an environmental exposure or biomarker differ with respect to a continuous response. For ease in interpretation and presentation of results, epidemiologists typically categorize predictors prior to analysis. To extend this approach to time-varying predictors, one can cluster individuals by their predictor trajectory, with the cluster index included as a predictor in a…

临床研究中组序贯试验的自适应延长AI 解读

In group sequential trials, it is important to obtain adequate data to assess overall benefits and risks of an experimental treatment for patients. To achieve this goal, we provide a general, formal framework for adaptively extending a group sequential trial to stop at any interim analysis time, often after a significance boundary for a clinical endpoint is crossed. For statistical inference, we propose to order the sample space by a class of well-ordered group sequential…

动态光滑系数模型的非参数分位数估计AI 解读

We suggest quantile regression methods for a class of smooth coefficient time series models. We use both local polynomial and local constant fitting schemes to estimate the smooth coefficients in a quantile framework. We establish the asymptotic properties of both the local polynomial and local constant estimators for α-mixing time series. We also suggest a bandwidth selector based on the nonparametric version of the Akaike information criterion, along with a consistent…

非参数核检验中的带宽选择AI 解读

We propose a sound approach to bandwidth selection in nonparametric kernel testing. The main idea is to find an Edgeworth expansion of the asymptotic distribution of the test concerned. Due to the involvement of a kernel bandwidth in the leading term of the Edgeworth expansion, we are able to establish closed-form expressions to explicitly represent the leading terms of both the size and power functions and then determine how the bandwidth should be chosen according to…

经济函数的动态演化：收益率曲线建模与预测AI 解读

The class of functional signal plus noise (FSN) models is introduced that provides a new, general method for modeling and forecasting time series of economic functions. The underlying, continuous economic function (or “signal”) is a natural cubic spline whose dynamic evolution is driven by a cointegrated vector autoregression for the ordinates (or “y-values”) at the knots of the spline. The natural cubic spline provides flexible cross-sectional fit and results in a linear…

祖细胞群体的分枝过程模型与后代分布估计AI 解读

We consider two new models of reducible age-dependent branching processes with emigration in conjunction with estimation problems arising in cell biology. Methods of statistical inference are developed using the relevant embedded discrete branching structure. Based on observations of the branching process with emigration, estimators of the offspring probabilities are proposed for the hidden unobservable process without emigration, which is of prime interest to investigators.…

非参数变量选择：EARTH算法AI 解读

We consider regression experiments involving a response variable Y and a large number of predictor variables X1, …, Xd, many of which may be irrelevant for the prediction of Y and thus must be removed before Y can be predicted from the X’s. We consider two procedures that select variables by using importance scores that measure the strength of the relationship between predictor variables and a response and keep those variables whose importance scores exceed a threshold. In…

高维稀疏因子建模：基因表达组学应用AI 解读

We describe studies in molecular profiling and biological pathway analysis that use sparse latent factor and regression models for microarray gene expression data. We discuss breast cancer applications and key aspects of the modeling and computational methodology. Our case studies aim to investigate and characterize heterogeneity of structure related to specific oncogenic pathways, as well as links between aggregate patterns in gene expression profiles and clinical…

利用贝叶斯广义线性模型评估疟疾抗原序列氨基酸位点的选择作用AI 解读

We present a statistical approach for identifying residues in DNA sequences for which diversity may be maintained by natural selection. Bayesian generalized linear models (GLMs) are used to describe patterns of mutation in a DNA sequence alignment. Posterior distributions of key quantities, such as probabilities of nonsynonymous and synonymous mutations per site, are studied. Inference in this class of models is achieved through customary Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.…

通过子空间投影实现基于相关性的函数型聚类AI 解读

A correlation-based functional clustering method is proposed for grouping curves with similar shapes. A correlation between two random functions defined through the functional inner product is used as a similarity measure. Curves with similar shapes are embedded in the cluster subspace spanned by a mean shape function and eigenfunctions of the covariance kernel. The cluster membership prediction for each curve attempts to maximize the functional correlation between the…

多指标模型与进一步降维AI 解读

Dimension reduction can be used as an initial step in statistical modeling. Further specification of model structure is imminent and important when the reduced dimension is still greater than 1. In this article we investigate one method of specification that involves separating the linear component from the nonlinear components, leading to further dimension reduction in the unknown link function and, thus, better estimation and easier interpretation of the model. The…

在回归测量误差框架下估计微分方程模型参数AI 解读

Differential equation (DE) models are widely used in many scientific fields that include engineering, physics and biomedical sciences. The so-called "forward problem", the problem of simulations and predictions of state variables for given parameter values in the DE models, has been extensively studied by mathematicians, physicists, engineers and other scientists. However, the "inverse problem", the problem of parameter estimation based on the measurements of output…

重复测量分析中非参数变系数模型的变量选择AI 解读

Nonparametric varying-coefficient models are commonly used for analysis of data measured repeatedly over time, including longitudinal and functional responses data. While many procedures have been developed for estimating the varying-coefficients, the problem of variable selection for such models has not been addressed. In this article, we present a regularized estimation procedure for variable selection that combines basis function approximations and the smoothly clipped…

二项回归模型中 Jeffreys 先验的性质与计算实现AI 解读

We study several theoretical properties of Jeffreys's prior for binomial regression models. We show that Jeffreys's prior is symmetric and unimodal for a class of binomial regression models. We characterize the tail behavior of Jeffreys's prior by comparing it with the multivariate t and normal distributions under the commonly used logistic, probit, and complementary log-log regression models. We also show that the prior and posterior normalizing constants under Jeffreys's…

纵向数据协方差矩阵的半参数估计AI 解读

Estimation of longitudinal data covariance structure poses significant challenges because the data are usually collected at irregular time points. A viable semiparametric model for covariance matrices was proposed in Fan, Huang and Li (2007) that allows one to estimate the variance function nonparametrically and to estimate the correlation function parametrically via aggregating information from irregular and sparse data points within each subject. However, the asymptotic…