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转移模型中的模拟最大似然估计AI 解读

In this paper we analyse the problem of modelling individual transitions in the presence of an incomplete sampling scheme. This problem is particularly cumbersome when a continuous time-scale is used for the modelling and when the model incorporates unobserved heterogeneity. This problem arises, for instance, when the observation is made at fixed time points or stops on an interval of time. In order to take this phenomenon into account, we propose to maximize the simulated…

通过间接推断估计随机波动率模型AI 解读

We propose as a tool for the estimation of stochastic volatility models two indirect inference estimators based on the choice of an autoregressive auxiliary model and an ARMA auxiliary model, respectively. These choices make the auxiliary parameter easy to estimate and at the same time allow the derivation of optimal indirect inference estimators. The results of some Monte Carlo experiments provide evidence that the indirect inference estimators perform well in finite…

利用控制变量降低间接推断方差：连续时间利率模型AI 解读

Simulation estimators, such as indirect inference or simulated maximum likelihood, are successfully employed for estimating stochastic differential equations. They adjust for the bias (inconsistency) caused by discretization of the underlying stochastic process, which is in continuous time. The price to be paid is an increased variance of the estimated parameters. The variance suffers from an additional component, which depends on the stochastic simulation involved in the…

马尔可夫转换与门限自回归模型对美国 GNP 的预测表现比较AI 解读

While there has been a great deal of interest in the modelling of non-linearities in economic time series, there is no clear consensus regarding the forecasting abilities of non-linear time-series models. We evaluate the performance of two leading non-linear models in forecasting post-war US GNP, the self-exciting threshold autoregressive model and the Markov-switching autoregressive model. Two methods of analysis are employed: an empirical forecast accuracy comparison of…

使用吉布斯抽样进行 GARCH 模型的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

This paper explains how the Gibbs sampler can be used to perform Bayesian inference on GARCH models. Although the Gibbs sampler is usually based on the analyti-cal knowledge of the full conditional posterior densities, such knowledge is not available in regression models with GARCH errors. We show that the Gibbs sampler can be combined with a unidimensional deterministic integration rule applied to each coordinate of the poste-rior density. The full conditional densities are…