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销售预测与库存周期AI 解读

INVENTORY CYCLE analysis has so far assumed sales forecasts by firms-projecting a constant multiple of either the latest level, or the latest rate of change, of sales into the future. This structure is adequate to show the way in which expectations and the level of business activity interact, but it has a certain ring of implausibility. Other ways of forecasting sales change the behavior of the model, so we may ask if stability is particularly sensitive to the technique…

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更好天气信息对葡萄干产业的价值AI 解读

This report utilizes decision theory to investigate the possible benefits of better weather information to California raisin growers. A supply curve is fitted to the raisin industry and used to evaluate the importance of various factors: weather is of overwhelming importance. Subsequent analysis focuses on the most vulnerable aspect of raisin production: its dependence on early forecasts of rain in September and October when the grapes are being dried and in danger of being…

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生产函数与成本函数：计量经济学综述AI 解读

Статья представляет собой несложный обзор различных подходов к построению производственных функций и обсуждение связанных с этим проблем (агрегирование и т. п.). Функции затрат рассматриваются как заменитель производственной функции, так как первые намного легче оценить на практике. Во второй части статьи автор рассматривает все наиболее значимые попытки статистического исследования произвосдтвенных функций и функций затрат.

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联立方程系统与沃尔德隐式因果链模型的预测AI 解读

According to Wold, information on some of the variables at time t cannot be used for prediction of the values of the remaining variables at t, in a simultaneous equation system. This, however, is not the case with his causal model. This paper considers the stochastic processes underlying the two models, uses the theory of canonical correlation to discuss Wold's criticism, and suggests the type of additional information necessary to remove these objections. It further shows…

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边际消费倾向的最小二乘与最大似然估计量的精确抽样分布AI 解读

In this article we derive the exact finite sample frequency functions of the least squares and maximum likelihood estimators of the marginal propensity to consume, assuming the basic stochastic Keynesian model. The properties of these functions are considered in more detail for particular values of the parameters and sizes of sample. It is concluded that, for samples of 10 or more observations, generated by the model considered (with realistic values of the parameters), the…

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偏迹相关AI 解读

THIS PAPER is a sequel to [5] in which a generalized correlation coefficient (the trace correlation) for multi-equation models was presented. This paper is concerned with the development of partial trace correlations. The relation between partial trace correlations and the trace correlation is analogous to the relation between partial correlation coefficients and the multiple correlation coefficient in a single-equation model.2 In the latter the multiple correlation…

柯布—道格拉斯生产函数参数的无偏估计量构造AI 解读

1. IN MANY empirical investigations the geometric mean of observed factor shares serves as an estimator of the factor exponents in a Cobb-Douglas2 production function. This particular estimator is due to Klein [7, p. 194]. It is here shown that such an estimator is biased. Under certain conditions an alternative estimator is derived which is unbiased, sufficient, efficient, and consistent.

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