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A natural generalization of least squares is proposed to estimate parameters in simultaneous linear equations. Full-information maximum likelihood is shown to be identical with this generalization. The extent to which other estimators deviate from the generalization is discussed. A paradox of Strotz is resolved, and application of canonical correlation theory to structural equations is indicated. 1. SUMMARY THIS PAPER compares various estimators of the parameters of linear…

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资本存量调整投资模型AI 解读

Firms' investment in plant and equipment is explained by a stock-adjustment model in which the coefficient of adjustment is allowed to vary. It is assumed that firms partially close the gap between desired and actual capital stock, but that the speed of adjustment depends on the firm's ability to procure funds at reasonable cost. A panel of individual firm responses to the McGraw-Hill plant and equipment survey is the principal data source, supplemented by financial…

季节调整程序的谱分析AI 解读

This paper discusses one of the uses to which two powerful techniques of modem time series analysis may be put in economics: namely, the study of the precise effects of seasonal adjustment procedures on the characteristics of the series to which they are applied. Since most economic data appearing at intervals of less than a year are to a greater or lesser extent manufactured from more basic time series, the problem of assessing the effects of the manufacturing processes…

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预测案例研究：西瓜市场AI 解读

This paper discusses two forecasting experiments involving models of the watermelon market. The first experiment compares the forecasts of an interdependent model estimated by limited information, single equation with those of a model using least squares reduced form. The second experiment compares the forecasts of the interdependent model with those of a causal chain model. It is found that the forecasts of the interdependent model are generally better than those of the…

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最佳线性无偏指数与因子法构造的指数AI 解读

PROFESSOR THEIL [5] recently gave the derivation of the best linear (B. L.) index number formulae for price and quantity. In an application of the formulae to Dutch import and export data, Kloek and DeWit [3] found that there is some slight, though persistent, bias to the effect that the index vectors yield larger current values than the individual data do. As this feature is related conceptually to the factor reversal test, they considered it desirable to devise a method…

飞机机体生产中进步曲线的可靠性AI 解读

This report presents a statistical study of the reliability of a given function for certain types of estimates in the aircraft industry and Air Force. It is indisputable that lower direct labor costs occur as the number of items produced increases. Questions can be raised, however, about the specifics of planning, estimating, and forecasting using this function.

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经济关系非三角系统的因果解释：再回应AI 解读

The Strotz-Wold Reply, however, penetrates to the heart of the issue, almost, and it will probably be illuminating to make a rejoinder. To begin with I should like to say that they are justified in taking exception to the unfortunate wording of the headnote. Though, when applied to the sequence of recipes given out by Wold, my remarks do not lack for verisimilitude, they are certainly not true to the letter of the Strotz-Wold article, and I should have taken pains not to…

关于指数问题的若干观察AI 解读

A Laspeyres index of total input in the electric power industry was constructed. The nature of the bias imbedded in such an index, and its relation to the Paasche index and its bias, are investigated. Means to evaluate the actual size of the bias and means to reduce it are devised.

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