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含滞后内生变量时一阶向量自回归误差的检验
This paper derives an asymptotically valid test for first-order autoregressive errors. The test is derived in a simultaneous system of equations context, and allows lagged endogenous variables to be present in the model.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the accuracy of the Simon-Ando approximation for stochastic nearly-completely decomposable systems. Relations are established defining this accuracy as a function of the maximum degree of coupling (e) between aggregates, the conditioning and the indecomposability of these aggregates. A procedure is derived by which estimates in c2 may be computed from aggregate eigencharacteristics. Finally, the Simon-Ando approximation is shown to be…
微观模拟与回归的结合：评论
IN A RECENT ARTICLE in Econometrica [1] Barbara Bergmann argues that improvement over the usual regression procedures can be gained by a combination of a very simple do-it-yourself simulation with regression. She asserts that this approach can provide insights which would not be found using a regression approach, and claims that simulation-regression offers a partial solution for the problems of multicollinearity and choice of functional form while economizing on degrees of…
证券风险溢价的定量理论及其在利率期限结构中的应用
Generalizing the Sharpe-Lintner capital asset pricing model, Dieffenbach [4] presents a model of securities markets in a private enterprise economy in a multiperiod competitive equilibrium with uncertainty. Risk premiums on securities depend on the covariances of holding period returns with the return on the market portfolio and with a multiperiod cost-of-living index. This paper develops a quantitative theory of that relationship suitable for empirical estimation and…
This paper discusses the asymptotic behavior of the neoclassical two-sector growth model when the steady-state conditions are not fulfilled, and derives the asymptotic growth rates for cases in which Hicks neutral technical progress occurs in the investment sector, or Harrod neutral technical progress occurs at different rates in the two sectors. The last section compares the asymptotic properties of this model with the standard steady-state properties of the two-sector…
This paper obtains Edgeworth or Gram-Charlier expansions for the t ratio of instrumental variable and k-class estimators, and uses them to give approximations to the confidence intervals obtained from these t ratios. These confidence intervals for large sample size are more accurate than the usual asymptotic confidence interval. Charlier expansions is applied to the t ratio of 2SLS and non-stochastic k-class estimators. Previous general theorems in this field, with the…
时间序列成分提取札记
THIS NOTE SUGGESTS that the components models employed in [2, 3, 10, 11, 12 and 17] may be usefully analyzed within the state space framework found in the literature of control engineering. Such a formulation has the distinct advantage that a large corpus of filtering and estimation theory may then be brought to bear upon such models and has secondary benefits in the form of a greater lucidity of, and flexibility in, the exposition of the extraction problem. Further, by…
非线性计量模型的随机控制方法及其应用
A method for optimization in nonlinear stochastic models is proposed in this paper, and applied to study monetary and fiscal policy in the St. Louis econometric model. Essentially, the method is to simulate the model in a number of stochastic simulations in which the coefficients of the model are treated as random, to use the results of the stochastic simulations to find parsimonious representations of the time form of the policy multipliers by estimating autoregressive…
Some economic variables are restricted by an upper and lower limit but are continuous between the two limits. Measurements of such variables are sometimes available in their natural form and sometimes only in the form of three categories where information concerning the middle category is suppressed (unemployed, employed part time, employed full time, for example). Where such a variable is a continuous function of other variables between the two limits, the function can be…
收入分布的便捷描述模型：伽马密度
The distribution of personal income is approximated by a two-parameter gamma density function (Pearson Type III). The two parameters may be considered as indicators of scale and of inequality, respectively. Maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters are derived from a random sample using graphical techniques, and a likelihood ratio test for the hypothesis that the inequality parameter is the same for different distributions is presented. The derivation of both the…
若干时域与频域分布滞后估计量：蒙特卡洛比较研究
This paper presents a comparison of three distributed lag estimators: OLS, the Almon procedure, and the Hannan inefficient method. Each method is compared for sample sizes of 50 and 100 for several alternative distributed lag shapes and residual process structures. The results not only reveal the relative performance of these estimators, but also provide evidence on each method's performance under misspecification with respect to lag length and the residual process.
过度识别约束子集的检验
A family of tests of significance is developed for coefficients in a single equation of a simultaneous system., Different members of this family are distinguished by the k-class estimator on which they are based, and on the alternative hypothesis against which they test. The size of the test is found when the disturbances are small, and the test is shown to be consistent if plim k = 1 or k = λ, the limited information maximum likelihood value.