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离散选择模型中的应用福利经济学AI 解读

Economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which csumers face a discrete rather than a continous set of choices.Such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consi.mterwelfare.But very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics in discrete choice situations.This paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to…

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样本选择偏误的最小二乘修正AI 解读

WHEN ESTIMATING REGRESSION MODELS it is very nearly always assumed that the sample is random. The recent literature has begun to deal with the problems which arise when estimating a regression model with samples which may not be random. The most general case in which one only has access to a single nonrandom sample has not been addressed since it is a very imposing problem. The case which has been addressed starts with a random sample but considers the problem of missing…

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非线性模型中政策效应不确定性的估计AI 解读

asymptotic variances of multipliers for nonlinear models. It is used to estimate the uncertainty of the results of eight policy experiments for a particular model. ALTHOUGH MACROECONOMETRIC MOI)ELS are widely used to analyze the effects of alternative government actions on the economy, estimates of the uncertainty of these effects are rarely, if ever, presented. This is, of course, not surprising, since most macroeconometric models are nonlinear. Unlike for linear models,…

理性预期假说的检验AI 解读

This paper develops a test of the rational expectations hypothesis advanced by Muth [18]. The framework considered here allows for multiperiod expectations of several endogenous variables, with or without lagged exogenous variables. In conventional (linear) models, the hypothesis implies that the expectations are linear in certain relevant variables, and restricts the coefficients of these variables to be certain functions of the parameters in the imbedding model. The test…

经典正态测量误差模型的扩展AI 解读

IT IS WELL KNOWN that least-squares estimates of the coefficients of a regression equation are inconsistent if any of the regressors are measured with error. The nature of these inconsistencies has been examined by Aigner [1], Blomqvist [2], Chow [3], Levi [5], McCallum [6], and Wickens [10] for the case in which a single regressor is subject to measurement error. The purpose of this study is to examine the nature of these inconsistencies when more than one variable is…

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分组收入频数数据下稳定分布的统计推断AI 解读

This paper discusses inferential procedures for the family of stable distributions, when the data are tabulated in the form of interval frequencies. The estimation criteria used are minimum chi-square and multinomial maximum likelihood. In evaluating the theoretical probabilities corresponding to the intervals, use is made of the inversion theorem for characteristic functions. Chi-square tail probabilities for independent samples are pooled by means of theKolmogorov…

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广告与总消费：Granger 因果关系分析AI 解读

This paper is concerned with testing for causation, using the Granger definition, in a bivariate time-series context. It is argued that a sound and natural approach to such tests must rely primarily on the out-of-sample forecasting performance of models relating the original (non-prewhitened) series of interest. A specific technique of this sort is presented and employed to investigate the relation between aggregate advertising and aggregate consumption spending. The null…

用矩方法近似截断正态回归AI 解读

A NUMBER OF ARTICLES have been written in recent as well as more distant times on the subject of limited dependent variables. This broad classification includes two particular special cases. First, the dependent variable has finite probability mass concentrated at some limit point-the so called Tobit model. This case is referred to as the censored model in the statistical literature. The second case is when the dependent variable simply has a limited range and follows a…

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经济事件的可预测性AI 解读

Events by Grunberg and Modigliani [3]. Economic forecasts are made to be used, and decisions based on them may affect their ultimate realization. Grunberg and Modigliani explored this problem in a model in which future aggregate supply was influenced by current decisions based on the predicted future price. They applied the Brouwer fixed point theorem to show that if the future equilibrium price is a bounded continuous function of its currently predicted value, a exists. In…

含 n+1 个内生变量方程中工具变量估计量的精确分布AI 解读

IN THE LATE 1960's, Richardson [18] and Sawa [20] derived the exact distribution of the two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator in a structural equation (of a simultaneous system) that contained two endogenous variables and an arbitrary number of degrees of overidentification. Their results refer to the 2SLS estimator of the coefficient of the endogenous variable included on the right hand side of the equation and were obtained under the classical assumptions (to use the…

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