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家庭构成、劳动力市场与劳动需求：农业家庭模型的分离性检验AI 解读

This paper tests the separation of farm labor supply and labor demand decisions, using the observation that household composition is an important determinant of farm labor use with nonseparation. After assessing the conditions under which the test has power against several alternatives, an empirical model is developed to test the proposition that farm employment is independent of family composition. The model is estimated on a data set from rural Java. The null hypothesis…

使用普通最小二乘残差的 CUSUM 检验AI 解读

The authors show that the CUSUM test of the stability over time of the coefficients of a linear regression model, which is usually based on recursive residuals, can also be applied to ordinary least squares residuals. The authors derive the limiting null distribution of the resulting test and compare its local power to that of the standard procedure. It turns out that neither version is uniformly superior to the other. Copyright 1992 by The Econometric Society.

普通最小二乘与工具变量回归中的扰动自相关结构检验AI 解读

Robert E. Cumby, John Huizinga, Testing the Autocorrelation Structure of Disturbances in Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Regressions, Econometrica, Vol. 60, No. 1 (Jan., 1992), pp. 185-195

工具变量估计量的精确小样本分布AI 解读

The purpose of this note is to point out that the bimodality is a consequence of the special case considered by N-S. The exact finite sample distribution of the IV estimator has been derived in the economic literature earlier, but its tabulation or plotting involves some assumptions about the nuisance parameters. In this note we plot the densities of the exact finite sample distribution of the IV estimator for several parameter values and show that the bimodality feature…

永久与暂时成分的相对重要性：识别与若干理论界AI 解读

Much macroeconometric discussion has recently emphasized the economic significance of the size of the permanent component in GNP. Consequently, a large literature has developed that tries to estimate this magnitude--measured, essentially, as the spectral density of increments in GNP at frequency zero. This paper shows that, unless the permanent component is a random walk, this attention has been misplaced: in general, that quantity does not identify the magnitude of the…

摘要暂缺

对条件均值误设稳健的异方差检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a new test statistic to deter the presence of heteroskedasticity. The proposed test does not require a parametric specification of the mean regression function in the first stage regression. The regression function is estimated nonparametrically by the kernel estimation method. The nonparametric residual is estimated and used as a proxy for the random disturbance term. This nonparametric residual is robust to regression function misspecification.…

信息矩阵检验的一种新形式AI 解读

A new form of the information matrix test is developed for a wide variety of statistical models. The test is constructed against an explicit alternative with random parameter variation. It is computed using a double-length artificial regression instead of the more conventional outer-product-of-the-gradient regression, which is known to have very poor finite-sample properties. In Monte Carlo experiments for the case of univariate linear regression models, the new form…

典范协整回归AI 解读

A new procedure for statistical inference in cointegrating regressions is developed. The author introduces canonical cointegrating regressions (regressions formulated with the transformed data). The required transformations involve simple adjustments of the integrated processes using stationary components in cointegrating models. Canonical cointegrating regressions, therefore, represent the same cointegrating relationships as the original models. They are, however,…

不可分物品经济中的无嫉妒与一致性AI 解读

The authors study fair allocation in economies with indivisible goods. They look for subsolutions of the no-envy solution satisfying the property of consistency which says that the desirability of an allocation for some economy is unaffected by the departure of some of the agents with their allotted bundles. The authors show that essentially there is no proper subsolution of the no-envy solution satisfying consistency. However, many subsolutions satisfy a bilateral version…

需求法则的经验证据AI 解读

For market demand to satisfy the law of demand, it is sufficient that the mean of all households' income effect matrices is positive definite. The authors show how this mean income effect matrix can be estimated from cross section data under metonymy, an assumption about the distribution of household characteristics. The estimation uses the nonparametric method of average derivatives. When the method is applied to U.K. family expenditure data, the estimated mean income…

不变性、非线性模型与渐近检验AI 解读

The invariance properties of several asymptotic tests are studied: invariance to hypothesis representation, reparameterization, and rescaling. Noninvariant tests include Wald tests, variants of LM tests, and Neyman's C(" alpha") tests. For all these tests, simply changing measurement units can lead to vastly different results, e.g. in models with Box-Cox transformations. Various consistent estimators of the information matrix produce tests with different invariance…

理解单位根研究者：鸟瞰式导览AI 解读

For the first-order univariate autoregression without constant term, the joint density (corresponding to a flat prior) for the true coefficient and its least squares estimate is estimated by Monte Carlo and graphically displayed. The graphs show how a symmetric distribution for the coefficient conditional on the estimate coexists with an asymmetric distribution for the estimate conditional on the coefficient. Prior densities implicit in treating classical significance levels…

贝叶斯回归模型中的稳健最高后验密度区域AI 解读

A Bayesian analysis of the linear regression model with only parts of the prior distribution specified or a robust Bayesian analysis lead to sets of posterior distributions. E. E. Leamer (1978) describes the region of posterior means for conjugate priors and varying prior covariance matrices. As an extension to Bayesian confidence sets (HPD regions) the authors introduce the concept of HiFi (high fiduciary) regions. The Hifi region is a union of HPD regions and is a tool for…

高斯向量自回归模型中协整向量的估计与假设检验AI 解读

This paper contains the likelihood analysis of vector autoregressive models allowing for cointegration. The author derives the likelihood ratio test for cointegrating rank and finds it asymptotic distribution. He shows that the maximum likelihood estimator of the cointegrating relations can be found by reduced rank regression and derives the likelihood ratio test of structural hypotheses about these relations. The author shows that the asymptotic distribution of the maximum…

半参数与非参数模型的自动频域推断AI 解读

The author considers frequency domain time series analysis, where smoothing in nonparametric spectrum estimation is data-dependent. Uniform convergence of spectrum estimates is established and applied to a semiparametric model, parameterized over possibly only a subset of the frequencies, in which disturbances have nonparametric autocorrelation. Optimal instruments depend on the disturbance spectrum and frequency response function, which is nonparametric in incomplete…

多类别离散选择模型中单调凹效用函数的半参数估计AI 解读

This paper introduces a semiparametric estimation method for Polychotomous Choice models. The method does not require a parametric structure for the systematic subutility of observable exogenous variables. The distribution of the random terms is assumed to be known up to a finite-dimensional parameter vector. In contrast, previous semiparametric methods of estimating discrete choice models have concentrated on relaxing parametric subutility parametrically specified. The…

工具变量统计量检验嵌套与非嵌套假设的蒙特卡洛研究及有限样本性质AI 解读

Using Monte Carlo methodology, this paper investigates the effect of dynamics and simultaneity on the finite sample properties of instrumental variables statistics for testing nested and nonnested hypotheses. Simple numerical-analytical formulae (response surfaces) are obtained which closely approximate the statistics' unknown size and power functions for a dynamic simultaneous-equations model. The analysis illustrates the value and limitations of asymptotic theory in…

股票市场价格的长期记忆AI 解读

A test for long-term memory that is robust to short-range dependence is developed. It is a modification of the R/S statistic, and the relevant asymptotic sampling theory is derived via functional central limit theory. Contrary to previous findings, when applied to daily and monthly stock returns indexes over several time periods this test yields no evidence of long-range dependence once short-range dependence is accounted for. Monte Carlo experiments show that the modified…

摘要暂缺

如何决定如何决定如何……：有限理性的建模AI 解读

It seems inconsistent to model boundedly rational action choice by assuming that the agent chooses the optimal decision procedure. This criticism is not avoided by assuming that he chooses the optimal procedure to choose a procedure to . . . to choose an action. The author shows that, properly interpreted, this regress, continued transfinitely, generates a model representing the agent's perception of all his options, including every way to refine his perceptions. In this…

非线性模型中涉及不等式约束的假设检验的局部性质AI 解读

This paper derives several properties unique to nonlinear model hypothesis testing problems involving linear or nonlinear inequality constraints in the null or alternative hypothesis. The paper is organized around a lemma that characterizes the set containing the least favorable parameter value for a nonlinear model inequality constraints hypothesis test. The author then presents two examples that illustrate several implications of this lemma. He also discusses the impact of…

关于博弈论解释的评论AI 解读

The paper is a discussion of the interpretation of game theory. The first half of the paper deals with the notion of "strategy". The paper endorses the view that equilibrium strategy describes a player's plan of action, as well as those considerations which support the optimality of his plan rather than being merely described as a "plan of action". In the second half of the paper it is argued that a good model in game theory has to be realistic in the sense that it provides…

约化形式拍卖的实施：几何方法AI 解读

AN AUCTION IS A MECHANISM for allocating a single indivisible object to one of several competing bidders. The winner is the bidder who is awarded the object. The rules of the auction specify two functions. The first is the probability with which a bidder wins, as a function of everyone's bids. The second is the payment each bidder makes to the seller, as a function of all the bids and whether or not he wins. For instance, a first-price auction awards the object to the…