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经典假设检验与贝叶斯后验赔率检验的大样本对应AI 解读

This paper establishes a correspondence in large samples between classical hypothesis tests and Bayesian posterior odds tests for models without trends. More specifically, tests of point null hypotheses and one- or two-sided alternatives are considered (where nuisance parameters may be present under both hypotheses). It is shown that, for certain priors, the Bayesian posterior odds test is equivalent in large samples to classical Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and likelihood…

不完全信息简单市场向效率的收敛AI 解读

A model with m buyers and m sellers is considered in which price is set to equate revealed demand and supply. In a Bayesian Nash equilibrium, each trader acts not as a price-taker but instead misrepresents his true demand/supply to influence price in his favor. This causes inefficiency. The authors show that, in any equilibrium, the amount by which a trader misreports is O(1/m) and the corresponding inefficiency is O(1/m[squared]). The indeterminacy and the inefficiency that…

依赖过程驱动的非线性动态中的适应性学习AI 解读

The authors provide a convergence theory for adaptive learning algorithms useful for the study of learning by economic agents. Their results extend the framework of L. Ljung previously utilized by A. Marcet-T. J. Sargent and M. Woodford by permitting nonlinear laws of motion driven by stochastic processes that may exhibit moderate dependence, such as mixing and mixingale processes. The authors draw on previous work by H. J. Kushner and D. S. Clark to provide readily…

波动率与各国股票市场之间的联系AI 解读

The authors attempt to account for the covariances between stock markets and to assess their integration. They estimate a factor model for sixteen national stock market returns whose volatility is induced by changing volatility in the factors. Unanticipated returns depend on innovations in economic variables and 'unobservable' factors. Assets risk premia are linear combinations of the factors risk premia. The authors find that idiosyncratic risk is priced and the 'price of…

极化的测量AI 解读

Suppose that the authors are interested in the distribution of a set of characteristics over a population. They study a precise sense in which this distribution can be said to be polarized and provide a theory of measurement. Polarization, as conceptualized here, is closely related to the generation of social tensions, to the possibilities of revolution and revolt, and to the existence of social unrest in general. The authors take special care to distinguish their theory…

摘要暂缺

风险中性多证券市场中的不完全竞争AI 解读

THE CENTRAL PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER is to develop a model of insider trading (i.e., trading based on private information) in the context of an imperfectly competitive multi-security market with risk-neutral agents. Imperfect competition allows us to consider strategic behavior, and a multi-security market lets us study the effect of a correlated environment on equilibrium. We employ the informational assumption that market makers can observe all order flows, and so portfolio…

工具变量估计量分布的替代近似AI 解读

This paper considers the instrument variable and method-of-moments estimators, as generalizations of two-stage least squares and limited information maximum likelihood, of the coefficients of a single equation. Motivated by a simple principle, asymptotic distributions are derived based on a parameter sequence where both the number of instruments and the sample size increase. The approximations to the distributions provided by this sequence are more accurate than traditional…

工具变量可采纳性检验：若干精细渐近结果AI 解读

This paper is concerned with the refined asymptotic properties of several tests for the admissibility of a subset of (overidentifying) instrumental variables. It derives maximum likelihood and linearized maximum likelihood tests and calculates size corrections to the order 1/T. The local power function of the size-corrected tests is the same to the order 1/T, irrespectively of the form of the test statistic or the limited information estimator used in its computation.…

局部平均处理效应的识别与估计AI 解读

We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced…

1963—1987年美国工资结构的变化：分位数回归的应用AI 解读

A recently developed quantile regression technique, which parsimoniously describes the entire conditional distribution, is applied to every March Current Population Survey since 1964. The study examines changes in the returns to schooling and experience at different points of the wage distribution and changes in within-group wage inequality. The results from the one-group and sixteen-group linear models show that the returns to schooling and experience differ across…

实验市场中的伯特兰—埃奇沃思竞争AI 解读

The Bertrand-Edgeworth model describes competition among price setting sellers with production capacity constraints. The authors report on laboratory experiments that permit evaluation of different theories of Bertrand-Edgeworth competition: competitive pricing, Edgeworth cycles in prices, mixed strategy Nash equilibrium pricing, and tacit collusion. Each of the theories helps to explain some aspects of the data. However, none of these theories are completely consistent with…

误差修正模型中协整系数最大似然估计量的若干精确分布理论AI 解读

The author derives some exact finite sample disbibutions and characterizes the tail behavior of maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating coefficients in error correction models. The reduced rank regression estimator has a distribution with Cauchy-like tails and no finite moments of integer order. The maximum likelihood estimator of the coefficients in a particular triangular system representation has matrix t-distribution tails with finite integer moments to order…

一种计算上可行的面板数据模拟估计量AI 解读

The author develops a practical extension of D. McFadden's method of simulated moments estimator for limited dependent variable models to the panel data case. The method is based on factorization of the method of simulated moments first order condition into transition probabilities, along with development of an accurate new method for simulating transition probabilities. Monte Carlo tests indicate that this method of simulated moments estimator performs quite well relative…

通过随机等度连续性研究半参数计量模型的渐近性质AI 解读

This paper provides a general framework for proving the "square root of" T-consistency and asymptotic normality of a wide variety of semiparametric estimators. The class of estimators considered consists of estimators that can be defined as the solution to a minimization problem based on a criterion function that may depend on a preliminary infinite dimensional nuisance parameter estimator. The method of proof exploits results concerning the stochastic equicontinuity of…

单变量 ARCH 模型的渐近滤波理论AI 解读

Researchers often employ ARCH models to estimate conditional variances and covariances. How successfully can misspecified ARCH models carry out this estimation? This paper employs continuous record asymptotics to approximate the distribution of the measurement error. This allows the authors to (1) compare the efficiency of various ARCH models, (2) characterize the impact of different kinds of misspecification on efficiency, and (3) characterize asymptotically optimal ARCH…

恩格尔函数、面板数据与潜变量AI 解读

Systems of consumer expenditure functions are estimated from Norwegian household panel data. Total consumption expenditure is modeled as a latent variable, as indicators of it are purchase expenditures on different goods and two income measures. The usual assumption of no measurement error in total expenditure is clearly rejected while a parsimonious alternative is not. The authors test hypotheses regarding the distribution of measurement errors, the evolution of the…

向量自回归与因果性AI 解读

A limit theory for Wald tests of Granger causality in levels vector autoregressions (VAR's) and error correction models (ECM's) is developed, which allows for stochastic trends and cointegration. Earlier work is extended to the general case, thereby characterizing when these Wald tests are asymptotically valid as 'x'(superscript 2) criteria. Our results for inference from unrestricted levels VAR are not encouraging: the limit theory often involves nuisance parameters and…

加权平均导数估计量与指数模型的效率AI 解读

Weighted average derivatives are useful parameters for semiparametric index models and nonparametric demand analysis. This paper gives efficiency results for average derivative estimators, including formulating estimators that have high efficiency. The authors derive the efficiency bound for weighted average derivatives of conditional location functionals, such as the conditional mean and median. They also derive the efficiency bound for semiparametric index models, where…

不确定性下的序贯劳动决策：西非农户的可估计家庭模型AI 解读

This paper reports estimates of the primitive parameters of a stochastic control model describing the labor decisions of West African small farmers. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed although optimal labor decision rules cannot be derived analytically. Vuong's non-nested model specification test shows that this method yields estimates superior to those derived by assuming that farmers solve a deterministic control problem. Low levels of labor effort are shown to be a…

非线性动态结构AI 解读

Methods for nonlinear impulse response analysis are introduced. The methods are based on conditional moment profiles defined for a stationary time series. Comparing conditional moment profiles to baseline profiles is the nonlinear analog of conventional impulse-response analysis. The bootstrap may be used for statistical inference. Profile bundles may be examined for evidence of damping or persistence. Application to bivariate NYSE price and volume series from 1928 to 1987…

摘要暂缺

通过约束误差相关性界定测量误差模型的回归斜率AI 解读

REMEDIES FOR THE ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES problem often take the form of consistently estimable bounds on a parameter, the advantage of such remedies being that they require weaker assumptions than those needed for consistent estimation of the parameter itself. The seminal result is the "errors-in-variables bound " of Gini (1921), which

资产价格马尔可夫模型的模拟矩估计AI 解读

This paper provides a simulated moments estimator of the parameters of dynamic models in which the state vector follows a time-homogeneous Markov process. Conditions are provided for both weak and strong consistency as well as asymptotic normality. Various trade-offs among the regularity conditions underlying the large sample properties of the simulated moments estimator are discussed in the context of an asset-pricing model. Geometric ergodicity of the underlying Markov…