论文检索

结构变化的实时监测AI 解读

Contemporary tests for structural change are designed to detect a structural break within a given historical data set of fixed size. Due to the law of the iterated logarithm, these one-shot tests cannot be applied to monitor out-of-sample stability each time new data arrive. The authors propose and analyze two real-time monitoring procedures with controlled size asymptotically: the fluctuation and CUSUM monitoring procedures. Simulation results show that the proposed…

劳动市场制度与工资分布，1973—1992：半参数方法AI 解读

This paper provides evidence that the decline in the real value of the minimum wage and in the rate of unionization account for a significant share of the increase in wage inequality in the United States between 1979 and 1988. The role of the minimum wage is particularly important for women, while deunionization has the largest impact on men. The authors develop a semiparametric procedure that applies kernel density methods to appropriately weighted samples. The procedure…

一致模型设定检验：遗漏变量与半参数函数形式AI 解读

By using nonparametric kernel estimation method and a central limit theorem for degenerate U-statistics of order higher than two, the authors develop several consistent model specification tests in the context of a nonparametric regression model. These include tests for omitted variables, tests for a partially linear model, and tests for a semiparametric single index model. The asymptotic normality of the test statistics are established under the respective null hypotheses…

工会对工资结构的影响：纵向分析AI 解读

This paper studies the effects of unions on the structure of wages using an estimation technique that accounts for misclassification errors in reported union status and potential correlations between union status and unobserved productivity. The model is estimated separately for five skill groups using a panel data set formed from the U.S. Current Population Survey. The results suggest that unions raise wages more for workers with lower levels of observed skills. Union…

基于广义矩估计量的检验的自助法临界值AI 解读

Tests based on generalized-method-of-moments estimators often have true levels that differ greatly from their nominal levels when asymptotic critical values are used. This paper gives conditions under which the bootstrap provides asymptotic refinements to the critical values of t tests and the test of overidentifying restrictions. Particular attention is given to the case of dependent data. It is shown that, with such data, the bootstrap must sample blocks of data and that…

未知形式序列相关的一致检验AI 解读

This paper proposes three classes of consistent tests for serial correlation of the residuals from a linear dynamic regression model. The tests are obtained by comparing a kernel-based spectral density estimator and the null spectral density using three divergence measures. The null normal distributions are invariant whether the regressors include lagged dependent variables. Both asymptotic local and global power properties are investigated. G. Box and D. Pierce's (1970)…

自回归单位根的高效检验AI 解读

The asymptotic power envelope is derived for point-optimal tests of a unit root in the autoregressive representation of a Gaussian time series. The authors propose a family of tests whose asymptotic power functions are tangent to the power envelope at one point and are never far below. When the series has an unknown mean or linear trend, commonly used tests are found to be dominated by members of the family of point-optimal invariant tests. The authors propose a modified…

计量经济模型的确定AI 解读

This paper is concerned with model determination methods and their use in the prediction of economic time series. The methods are Bayesian but they can be justified by classical arguments as well. The paper continues some recent work on Bayesian asymptotic, develops embedding techniques for vector martingales, and implements the modeling ideas in a multivariate regression framework that includes Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR's) and reduced rank regressions (RRR's). It…

SNP 密度估计量的收敛速度AI 解读

The SNP density estimator is a truncation (or sieve) estimator based upon a Hermite series expansion. Other nonparametric estimators based on orthogonal series expansions have been proposed.

备择参数空间受限时似然比检验的可容许性AI 解读

This paper considers hypothesis tests when the parameter space is restricted under the alternative hypothesis. Multivariate one-sided tests are a leading example. The likelihood ratio (LR) test is shown to be admissible and to maximize power against alternatives that are arbitrarily distant from the null hypothesis. Exact results are established first for Gaussian linear regression models with known variance. Asymptotic analogues are then established for dynamic nonlinear…

利用 ARCH 模型进行渐近最优平滑AI 解读

Suppose an observed time series is generated by a stochastic volatility model. As shown by D. B. Nelson (1992) and D. B. Nelson and D. P. Foster (1994), a misspecified ARCH model will often be able to consistently (as a continuous time limit is approached) estimate the unobserved volatility process using information in the lagged residuals. This paper shows how to more efficiently estimate such a volatility process using information in both lagged and led residuals. In…

利率衍生证券的非参数定价AI 解读

The author proposes a nonparametric estimation procedure for continuous-time stochastic models. Because prices of derivative securities depend crucially on the form of the instantaneous volatility of the underlying process, he leaves the volatility function unrestricted and estimates it nonparametrically. Only discrete data are used but the estimation procedure still does not rely on replacing the continuous-time model by some discrete approximation. Instead, the drift and…

线性回归中的参数恒定性检验：经验分布函数方法AI 解读

This paper proposes some tests for parameter constancy in linear regressions. The tests use weighted empirical distribution functions of estimated residuals and are asymptotically distribution free. The proposed tests have nontrivial local power against a wide range of alternatives. In particular, the tests are capable of detecting error heterogeneity that is not necessarily manifested in the form of changing variances. The model allows for both dynamic and trending…

IGARCH(1,1)与协方差平稳GARCH(1,1)模型中准极大似然估计的一致性与渐近正态性AI 解读

This paper provides a proof of the consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator in GARCH(1,1) and IGARCH(1,1) models. In contrast to the case of a unit root in the conditional mean, the presence of a 'unit root' in the conditional variance does not affect the limiting distribution of the estimators; in both models, estimators are normally distributed. In addition, a consistent estimator of the covariance matrix is available, enabling the use…

生产函数估计：重拾原始形式的直接估计AI 解读

MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION ON THE ESTIMATION of production functions is related to the fact that inputs may be endogenous and therefore direct estimators of the production functions may be inconsistent. One way to overcome this problem has been to apply the concept of duality. The purpose of this note is to point out that estimates based on duality, unlike direct estimators of the production function, do not utilize all the available information and therefore are statistically…

原假设下干扰参数未被识别时的统计推断AI 解读

The authors study the asymptotic distribution of econometric tests involving nuisance parameters that are not identified under the null hypotheses. In general, the asymptotic distributions depend upon a large number of unknown parameters. The authors show that a transformation based upon a conditional probability measure yields an asymptotic distribution free of nuisance parameters and they show that this transformation can be easily approximated via simulation. The theory…

时间序列贝叶斯推断的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper develops an asymptotic theory of Bayesian inference for time series. A limiting representation of the Bayesian data density is obtained and shown to be of the same general exponential form for a wide class of likelihoods and prior distributions. Continuous time and discrete time cases are studied. In discrete time, an embedding theorem is given which shows how to embed the exponential density in a continuous time process. From the embedding we obtain a large…

个体风险与互助保险AI 解读

This paper examines how, in the presence of individual risk, economic efficiency can be achieved without an unrealistically large number of contingent markets. The authors show that consistency of beliefs and optimality of allocation can be guaranteed with an appropriate array of Arrow securities to spread collective risk and Malinvaud mutual insurance policies to pool individual risk. If there are N households (consisting of H types), each facing the possibility of being in…

左删失持续时间模型中半参数效率界的实现AI 解读

Consider the estimation of unemployment duration when the statistician samples individuals from the pool of unemployed persons and later interviews them and asks how long they had been unmployed. This incurs the problem of left-censoring; ignoring left-censoring overestimates the mean duration since longer spells tend to be observed more frequently than shorter ones. Lancaster (1979) gives a simple and convenient solution to the problem by introducing a conditional maximum…

持续期模型中的样本选择与初始条件：来自培训实验的证据AI 解读

The authors investigate the separate effects of a training program on the duration of participants' subsequent employment and unemployment spells. This program randomly assigned volunteers to treatment and control groups. However, the treatments and controls experiencing subsequent employment and unemployment spells are not generally comparable subsets of the initial groups. Standard practice in duration models ignores this issue, leading to a sample selection problem and…

因变量未知变换回归模型的半参数估计AI 解读

This paper shows how to estimate a model in which an unknown transformation of the dependent variable is a linear function of explanatory variables plus an unobserved random variable, U, whose distribution is unknown. The model nests many familiar parametric and semiparametric models, including models with Box-Cox transformed dependent variables and proportional hazards models with and without unobserved heterogeneity. The paper develops root-n consistent, asymptotically…

摘要暂缺

滚动样本方差估计量的连续记录渐近理论AI 解读

It is widely known that conditional covariances of asset returns change over time. Researchers doing empirical work have adopted many strategies for accommodating conditional heteroskedasticity. One popular strategy is performing rolling regressions in which only data from, say, the preceding five year period is used to estimate the conditional covariance of returns at a given date. The authors develop continuous record asymptotic approximations for the measurement error in…

不平等测度的稳健性AI 解读

Inequality measures are often used to summarize information about empirical income distributions. However the resulting picture of the distribution and of changes in the distribution can be severely distorted if the data are contaminated. The nature of this distortion will in general depend upon the underlying properties of the inequality measure. This issue is investigated theoretically using a technique based on the influence function, and the magnitude of the effect is…