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积分条件矩检验的渐近理论AI 解读

In this article, the authors show that a generalized version of H. J. Bierens' integrated conditional moment (ICM) test of functional form has nontrivial root-n local power, where n is the sample size, and that for a class of large local alternatives the consistent ICM test is more powerful than the parametric t test in a neighborhood of the parametric alternative involved. Moreover, they show that, under the assumption of normal errors, the ICM test is asymptotically…

一种半参数最大似然估计量AI 解读

A maximum likelihood estimator for models containing nuisance parameters is proposed. The estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal and attain the semiparametric efficiency bounds for a number of important econometric models. The idea is to find a parametric model that passes through the true model. The score for the parametric model is then estimated nonparametrically and the estimator is obtained by setting the estimated score to zero.

计算广义矩估计量的停止规则AI 解读

To obtain consistency and asymptotic normality, a generalized method of moments (GAM) estimator typically is defined to be an approximate global minimizer of a GAM criterion function. To compute such an estimator, however, can be problematic because of the difficulty of global optimization. To alleviate this problem, the author proposes a stopping-rule (SR) procedure for computing GAM estimators. The SR procedure eliminates the need for global search with high probability.…

广义矩估计的信息论替代方法AI 解读

While optimally weighted generalized method of moments (GAM) estimation has desirable large sample properties, its small sample performance is poor in some applications. The authors propose a computationally simple alternative, for weakly dependent data generating mechanisms, based on minimization of the Kullback-Leibler information criterion. Conditions are derived under which the large sample properties of this estimator are similar to GAM, i.e., the estimator will be…

协整与动态联立方程模型AI 解读

The author demonstrates that despite variables that are integrated, the fundamental issues on structural equation modeling raised by the Cowles Commission remain valid and standard estimation and testing procedures can still be applied. A basic framework linking the multiple time series model and the dynamic simultaneous equation model is provided and implications under the long-run cointegrating relations are discussed. Conditions for identifying both the short-run dynamics…

似然比设定检验AI 解读

Moment based tests for mispecification of parametric models (e.g., of mean equals variance in a Poisson model) are studied. The moment restrictions under test are embedded in an extension of the model so that the moment test is a score test of the hypothesis that a vector of added parameters is zero. Second-order asymptotic properties of the likelihood ratio version of this test are studied. Unlike the conventional test, the likelihood ratio version is Bartlett correctable.…

条件异方差模型中准极大似然估计量的渐近偏差AI 解读

For conditional heteroskedasticity models, the authors study the identification condition that is required for consistency of a non-Gaussian quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator. They show that, if the conditional mean is zero or if a symmetry condition is satisfied, then the identification condition is satisfied. Without symmetry, an additional parameter, for the location of the innovation density, must be added for identification. For the conditional variance parameters of a…

协整分析中的两个混合正态密度AI 解读

We derive explicitly the exact density functions of two key mixed normal variates that arise from cointegration analysis. We also plot them, and analyze their analytical features and implications.

弱工具变量下的工具变量回归AI 解读

This paper develops asymptotic distribution theory for instrumental variables regression when the partial correlations between the instruments and the endogenous variables are weak, here modeled as local to zero. Asymptotic representation are provided for various statistics, including two-stage least squares and limited information maximum likelihood estimators, Wald statistics, and statistics testing overidentification and endogeneity. The asymptotic distributions provide…

利用随机化突破维度灾难AI 解读

This paper introduces random versions of successive approximations and multigrid algorithms for computing approximate solutions to a class of finite and infinite horizon Markovian decision problems. The author proves that these algorithms succeed in breaking the 'curse of dimensionality' for a subclass of Markovian decision problems known as discrete decision processes.

无限商品情形下的埃奇沃思猜想：L¹ 空间AI 解读

The authors examine core convergence for economies with a large finite number of agents and an infinite number of commodities. They find a serious disconnection between economies with a large finite number of agents and economies with a continuum of agents: the authors provide examples of nonconvergence of the core for large finite economies in L[superscript 1], a commodity space for which core equivalence holds for continuum economies. In addition, they show that, if…

印度村庄中的风险与保险：评论AI 解读

THE PROTECTION OF POOR HOUSEHOLDS in high-risk agrarian economies from shocks to their incomes has often been seen as a compelling motive for various forms of policy intervention including transfers of cash or food, credit subsidies, and public employment schemes (for a survey see Lipton and Ravallion (1995)). The desirability of such safety net policies clearly depends on how well pre-existing risk-sharing arrangements work. While it is commonly thought that, without…

单位根假设的稳健秩检验AI 解读

The authors consider a family of rank tests based on the regression rank score process introduced by C. Gutenbrunner and J. Jureckova (1992) to test the unit root hypothesis in economic time series. In contrast to tests based on least-squares methods, the rank tests are asymptotically Gaussian under the null hypothesis, and have excellent power--particularly under innovation exhibiting heavy tails. These regression rank scores arise as a vector of solutions of the dual form…

多变量非参数关系中因子数量的推断AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of determining the number of factors in a multivariate nonparametric relationship. The definition of factors given is broad enough to encompass a number of potential applications in econometrics, including inferring the rank of demand, consistent tests for lack of identification in linear instrumental variable models, and testing arbitrage pricing theory. The paper gives both series and kernel methods for testing hypotheses concerning, and…

具有随机波动的贝叶斯向量自回归AI 解读

This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to a vector autoregression with stochastic volatility, where the multiplicative evolution of the precision matrix is driven by a multivariate beta variate. Exact updating formulas are given to the nonlinear filtering of the precision matrix. Estimation of the autoregressive parameters requires numerical methods: an importance-sampling-based approach is explained here.

干中学与技术选择AI 解读

In a Bayesian model of learning, the more an agent uses a technology, the better he learns its parameters. This expertise is a form of human capital. Switching to a new technology temporarily reduces expertise: the bigger the leap, the bigger the loss. This may prevent the agent from climbing the technological ladder too fast. Someone skilled may want to stick to his technology and experience no growth in the long run. But someone less skilled may want to switch technologies…

均衡流形上的可检验限制AI 解读

The authors present a finite system of polynomial inequalities in unobservable variables and market data that observations on market prices, individual incomes and, aggregate endowments must satisfy to be consistent with the equilibrium behavior of some pure trade economy. Quantifier elimination is used to derive testable restrictions on finite data sets for the pure trade model. A characterization of observations on aggregate endowments and market prices that are consistent…

存在摩擦的经济中的资产定价AI 解读

This paper examines how proportional transaction costs, short-sale constraints, and margin requirements affect inferences based on asset return data about intertemporal marganil rates of substitution (IMRSs). Small transaction costs greatly reduce the required variability of IMRSs, suggesting that the low variability of many parametric, aggregate consumption based IMRSs need not be inconsistent with asset return data. Euler inequalities for a transaction cost economy with…

电信设备行业的生产率动态AI 解读

Technological change and deregulation have caused a major restructuring telecommunications equipment industry over the last two decades. Our empirical focus is on estimating the parameters of a production function for the equipment industry, and then using those estimates to analyze the evolution of plant-level productivity. The restructuring involved significant entry and exit and large changes in the sizes of incumbents. This generates a selection and a simultaneity…

连续时间中的非因果性AI 解读

Different concepts of noncausality for continuous time processes, using conditional independence and decomposition of semimartingales, are defined. As in the discrete-time setup, continuous time noncausality is a property concerned with the prediction horizon (global versus instantaneous noncausality) and the nature of the prediction (strong versus weak noncausality). Relations between the resulting continuous time noncausality concepts are then studied for the class of…

广义矩估计框架下参数不稳定性的最优检验AI 解读

This paper presents optimal tests for parameter instability in the generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. The new tests include tests that are optimal for both one-sided and two-sided alternatives. One of the optimal tests for two-sided alternatives is the GMM generalization of the test presented in Andrews and Ploberger (1994) for the likelihood framework. The new tests include a class of optimal tests that direct the test's power to specific locations in the…

预测能力的渐近推断AI 解读

This paper develops procedures for inference about the moments of smooth functions of out-of-sample predictions and prediction errors when there is a long time series of predictions and realizations. The aim is to provide tools for analysis of predictive accuracy and efficiency and, more generally, of predictive ability. The paper allows for nonnested and nonlinear models as well as for possible dependence of predictions and prediction errors on estimated regression…

Digitised version produced by the EUI Library and made available online in 2020.

收入分布随机占优的非参数检验AI 解读

A class of tests for first, second, and third order stochastic dominance, together with modifications to the Pearson goodness of fit test are proposed for the nonparametric comparison of income distributions. They are implemented and compared with tests for generalised Lorenz dominance (which is the indirect test of second order stochastic dominance currently employed in income distribution studies) utilizing Canadian family income data. Copyright 1996 by The Econometric…