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非平稳面板数据的线性回归极限理论AI 解读

This paper develops a regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data with large numbers of cross section and time series observations. The limit theory allows for both sequential limits and joins limits, and the relationship between these multidimensional limits is explored. The panel structures considered allow for no time series cointegration, heterogeneous cointegration, homogeneous cointegration, and near-homogeneous cointegration. The paper explores the existence…

学习下随机过程的贝叶斯表示：重访 de Finetti 定理AI 解读

A probability distribution governing the evolution of a stochastic process has infinitely many Bayesian representations of the form mu = integral operator [subscript theta] mu[subscript theta] delta lambda (theta). Among these, a natural representation is one whose components (mu[subscript theta]'s) are 'learnable' (one can approximate mu[subscript theta] by conditioning mu on observation of the process) and 'sufficient for prediction' (mu[subscript theta]'s predictions are…

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解释美国制造业投资动态：广义（S，s）方法AI 解读

In this paper, the authors derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard sharp (S, s) bands, firms' adjustment policies take the form of a probability of adjustment (adjustment hazard) that responds smoothly to changes in firms' capacity gap. The model has appealing aggregation properties, and yields nonlinear aggregate time series processes. The passivity of…

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广义矩估计中的一致矩条件选择程序AI 解读

This paper considers a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation problem in which one has a vector of moment conditions, some of which are correct and some incorrect. The paper introduces several procedures for consistently selecting the correct moment conditions. Application of the results of the paper to instrumental variables estimation problems yields consistent procedures for selecting instrumental variables. The paper specifies moment selection criteria that are…

三角联立方程模型的非参数估计AI 解读

This paper presents a simple two-step nonparametric estimator for a triangular simultaneous equation model. The authors use series approximations that exploit the additive structure of the model. The first step comprises the nonparametric estimation of the reduced form and the corresponding residuals. The second step is the estimation of the primary equation via nonparametric regression with the reduced form residuals included as a regressor. The authors derive consistency…

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高工资劳动者与高工资企业AI 解读

Using a longitudinal sample of one million French workers and 500,000 employing firms, the authors decompose real total annual compensation per worker into components: observable employee characteristics, personal heterogeneity, firm heterogeneity, and residual. Unobserved personal heterogeneity is a very important source of wage variation. Unobserved firm heterogeneity, while important, is not as important as person effects. Enterprises that hire high-wage workers are more…

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VAR 维度对估计量偏误的影响AI 解读

Vector AutoRegressions (VARs) have now become the most popular tool of Time Series analysis amongst econometricians. Unfortunately, little is known about the analytic finite-sample properties of parameter estimators for such systems. The asymptotic analysis of VARs published to date does not address questions regarding the influence of the number and nature of the system's variates on parameter estimates. Clearly, both questions will have repercussions on the way VARs are…

匹配市场中的截断策略：为参与者寻找策略指引AI 解读

The authors consider the strategic options facing workers in labor markets with centralized market clearing mechanisms, such as those in the entry-level labor markets of a number of professions. If workers do not have detailed information about the preferences of other workers and firms, the scope of potentially profitable strategic behavior is considerably reduced, although not entirely eliminated. Specifically, the authors demonstrate that stating preferences that reverse…

弱工具变量回归中结构参数的推断AI 解读

The authors consider the problem of making asymptotically valid inference on structural parameters in instrumental variables regression with weak instruments. Using local-to-zero asymptotics, they derive the asymptotic distributions of likelihood ratio (LR) and Lagrange multiplier (LM) type statistics for testing simple hypotheses on structural parameters based on maximum likelihood and generalized methods of moments estimation methods. In contrast to the nonstandard…

中位数回归模型的自助法AI 解读

The least-absolute-deviations (LAD) estimator for a median-regression or censored median-regression model does not satisfy the standard conditions for obtaining asymptotic refinements through use of the bootstrap because the LAD objective function is not smooth. This paper overcomes this problem by smoothing the objective function. The smoothed estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the ordinary LAD estimator. With bootstrap critical values, the rejection probabilities of…

理解伪回归的新工具AI 解读

Some new tools for analyzing spurious regressions are presented. The theory utilizes the general representation of a stochastic process in terms of an orthonormal system and provides an extension of the Weierstrass theorem to include the approximation of continuous functions and stochastic processes by Wiener processes. The theory is applied to two classic examples of spurious regressions: regressions of stochastic trends on time polynomials and regressions among independent…

时间序列中的短期与长期因果性：理论AI 解读

Causality in Granger's sense is defined in terms of predictibility one period ahead. The notion of causality is generalized by considering causality at any given horizon 1 <= h <= inifinity, providing a rigorous formalization of indirect causal effects and causality chains in (possibly) nonstationary time series. The authors derive necessary and sufficient conditions for noncausality between vectors up to any given horizon. They observe that coefficients of lagged variables…

存在非参数自相关时的无平滑推断AI 解读

The author gives conditions under which nonparametric autocorrelation-consistent variance estimation is possible without smoothing. The conditions are relevant to inference on slope parameters in models with an intercept and strictly exogenous regressors, and allow regressors and disturbances to collectively have considerable stationary long memory and to satisfy only mild, in some cases minimal, moment conditions. His estimate dominates smoothed ones in the sense that it…

自回归条件持续期：不等间隔交易数据的新模型AI 解读

This paper proposes a new statistical model for the analysis of data which arrives at irregular intervals. The model treats the time between events as a stochastic process and proposes a new class of point processes with dependent arrival rates. The conditional intensity is developed and compared with other self-exciting processes. The model is applied to the arrival times of financial transactions and therefore is a model of transaction volume, and also to the arrival of…

利用实验数据刻画选择偏差AI 解读

Semiparametric methods are developed to estimate the bias that arises from using nonexperimental comparison groups to evaluate social programs and to test the identifying assumptions that justify matching, selection models and the method of difference in differences. Using data from an experiment on a prototypical social program and data from nonexperimental comparison groups, the authors reject the assumptions justifying matching and their extensions of it. The evidence…

有限因变量模型估计的模拟得分法AI 解读

The method of simulated scores (MSS) is presented for estimating limited dependent variables models (LDV) with flexible correlation structure in the unobservables. The authors propose simulators that are continuous in the unknown parameter vectors, and hence standard optimization methods can be used to compute the MSS estimators that employ these simulators. The first continuous method relies on a recursive conditioning of the multivariate normal density through a Cholesky…

利用税制改革估计劳动供给反应AI 解读

The 1980s tax reforms and the changing dispersion of wages offer one of the best opportunities yet to estimate labor supply effects. Nevertheless, changing sample composition, aggregate shocks, the changing composition of the tax paying population, and discontinuities in the tax system create serious identification and estimation problems. The authors develop grouping estimators that address these issues. Their results reveal positive and moderately sized wage elasticities.…