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数值求解动态模型的似然收敛性质AI 解读

This paper studies the econometrics of computed dynamic models. Since these models generally lack a closed-form solution, their policy functions are approximated by numerical methods. Hence, the researcher can only evaluate an approximated likelihood associated with the approximated policy function rather than the exact likelihood implied by the exact policy function. What are the consequences for inference of the use of approximated likelihoods? First, we find conditions…

平均处理效应匹配估计量的大样本性质AI 解读

Matching estimators for average treatment effects are widely used in evaluation research despite the fact that their large sample properties have not been established in many cases. The absence of formal results in this area may be partly due to the fact that standard asymptotic expansions do not apply to matching estimators with a fixed number of matches because such estimators are highly nonsmooth functionals of the data. In this article we develop new methods for…

多矩条件下的广义矩估计AI 解读

This paper provides a first order asymptotic theory for generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators when the number of moment conditions is allowed to increase with the sample size and the moment conditions may be weak. Examples in which these asymptotics are relevant include instrumental variable (IV) estimation with many (possibly weak or uninformed) instruments and some panel data models covering moderate time spans and with correspondingly large numbers of…

大型双向拍卖的效率AI 解读

We consider large double auctions with private values. Values need be neither symmetric nor independent. Multiple units may be owned or desired. Participation may be stochastic. We introduce a very mild notion of “a little independence.” We prove that all nontrivial equilibria of auctions that satisfy this notion are asymptotically efficient. For any α>0, inefficiency disappears at rate 1/n2-α.

随机动态模型的模拟精度AI 解读

This paper is concerned with accuracy properties of simulations of approximate solutions for stochastic dynamic models. Our analysis rests upon a continuity property of invariant distributions and a generalized law of large numbers. We then show that the statistics generated by any sufficiently good numerical approximation are arbitrarily close to the set of expected values of the model's invariant distributions. Also, under a contractivity condition on the dynamics, we…

联盟议价中的行为识别：要价议价与交替出价的实验分析AI 解读

Alternating-offer and demand bargaining models of legislative bargaining make very different predictions in terms of both ex ante and ex post distribution of payoffs, as well as in the role of the order of play. The experiment shows that actual bargaining behavior is not as sensitive to the different bargaining rules as the theoretical point predictions, whereas the comparative statics are in line with both models. We compare our results to studies that attempt to…

对福利退出者提供限时工资补贴的效应估计AI 解读

In the Self Sufficiency Project (SSP) welfare demonstration, members of a randomly assigned treatment group could receive a subsidy for full-time work. The subsidy was available for 3 years, but only to people who began working full time within 12 months of random assignment. A simple optimizing model suggests that the eligibility rules created an “establishment” incentive to find a job and leave welfare within a year of random assignment, and an “entitlement” incentive to…

诅咒均衡AI 解读

There is evidence that people do not fully take into account how other people's actions depend on these other people's information. This paper defines and applies a new equilibrium concept in games with private information, cursed equilibrium, which assumes that each player correctly predicts the distribution of other players' actions, but underestimates the degree to which these actions are correlated with other players' information. We apply the concept to common-values…

存在共同冲击的横截面回归AI 解读

This paper considers regression models for cross-section data that exhibit cross-section dependence due to common shocks, such as macroeconomic shocks. The paper analyzes the properties of least squares (LS) estimators in this context. The results of the paper allow for any form of cross-section dependence and heterogeneity across population units. The probability limits of the LS estimators are determined, and necessary and sufficient conditions are given for consistency.…

离散变化下的非参数识别AI 解读

This paper provides weak conditions under which there is nonparametric interval identification of local features of a structural function that depends on a discrete endogenous variable and is nonseparable in latent variates. The function delivers values of a discrete or continuous outcome and instruments may be discrete valued. Application of the analog principle leads to quantile regression based interval estimators of values and partial differences of structural functions.…

大量弱工具变量下的一致估计AI 解读

This paper analyzes the conditions under which consistent estimation can be achieved in instrumental variables (IV) regression when the available instruments are weak and the number of instruments, Kn, goes to infinity with the sample size. We show that consistent estimation depends importantly on the strength of the instruments as measured by rn, the rate of growth of the so-called concentration parameter, and also on Kn. In particular, when Kn→∞, the concentration…

可能存在弱工具变量的线性结构模型中的投影统计推断AI 解读

It is well known that standard asymptotic theory is not applicable or is very unreliable in models with identification problems or weak instruments. One possible way out consists of using a variant of the Anderson–Rubin ((1949), AR) procedure. The latter allows one to build exact tests and confidence sets only for the full vector of the coefficients of the endogenous explanatory variables in a structural equation, but not for individual coefficients. This problem may in…

逐步多重检验：将数据窥探形式化AI 解读

In econometric applications, often several hypothesis tests are carried out at once. The problem then becomes how to decide which hypotheses to reject, accounting for the multitude of tests. This paper suggests a stepwise multiple testing procedure that asymptotically controls the familywise error rate. Compared to related single-step methods, the procedure is more powerful and often will reject more false hypotheses. In addition, we advocate the use of studentization when…

最大得分估计量的 BootstrapAI 解读

This paper shows that the bootstrap does not consistently estimate the asymptotic distribution of the maximum score estimator. The theory developed also applies to other estimators within a cube-root convergence class. For some single-parameter estimators in this class, the results suggest a simple method for inference based upon the bootstrap.

不假定参数已识别的 GMM 参数检验AI 解读

We propose a generalized method of moments (GMM) Lagrange multiplier statistic, i.e., the K statistic, that uses a Jacobian estimator based on the continuous updating estimator that is asymptotically uncorrelated with the sample average of the moments. Its asymptotic χ-super-2 distribution therefore holds under a wider set of circumstances, like weak instruments, than the standard full rank case for the expected Jacobian under which the asymptotic χ-super-2 distributions of…

揭示驾驶者对出行时间与可靠性的偏好分布AI 解读

We apply recent econometric advances to study the distribution of commuters' preferences for speedy and reliable highway travel. Our analysis applies mixed logit to combined revealed and stated preference data on commuter choices of whether to pay a toll for congestion-free express travel. We find that motorists exhibit high values of travel time and reliability, and substantial heterogeneity in those values. We suggest that road pricing policies designed to cater to such…

波动率长记忆的估计AI 解读

We consider semiparametric estimation of the memory parameter in a model that includes as special cases both long-memory stochastic volatility and fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH) models. Under our general model the logarithms of the squared returns can be decomposed into the sum of a long-memory signal and a white noise. We consider periodogram-based estimators using a local Whittle criterion function. We allow the optional inclusion of an additional…

含内生回归变量的非可分模型：横截面与面板数据估计AI 解读

We propose two new methods for estimating models with nonseparable errors and endogenous regressors. The first method estimates a local average response. One estimates the response of the conditional mean of the dependent variable to a change in the explanatory variable while conditioning on an external variable and then undoes the conditioning. The second method estimates the nonseparable function and the joint distribution of the observable and unobservable explanatory…

GMM、GEL、序列相关与渐近偏差AI 解读

For stationary time series models with serial correlation, we consider generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators that use heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) positive definite weight matrices and generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimators based on smoothed moment conditions. Following the analysis of Newey and Smith (2004) for independent observations, we derive second order asymptotic biases of these estimators. The inspection of bias…

半参数平均导数的 Bootstrap 与 Edgeworth 修正AI 解读

In a number of semiparametric models, smoothing seems necessary in order to obtain estimates of the parametric component which are asymptotically normal and converge at parametric rate. However, smoothing can inflate the error in the normal approximation, so that refined approximations are of interest, especially in sample sizes that are not enormous. We show that a bootstrap distribution achieves a valid Edgeworth correction in the case of density-weighted averaged…

序列依赖非参数熵度量的渐近分布理论AI 解读

Entropy is a classical statistical concept with appealing properties. Establishing asymptotic distribution theory for smoothed nonparametric entropy measures of dependence has so far proved challenging. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic theory for a class of kernel-based smoothed nonparametric entropy measures of serial dependence in a time-series context. We use this theory to derive the limiting distribution of Granger and Lin's (1994) normalized entropy measure of…

利用核平滑方法估计半参数 ARCH(∞) 模型AI 解读

We investigate a class of semiparametric ARCH(∞) models that includes as a special case the partially nonparametric (PNP) model introduced by Engle and Ng (1993) and which allows for both flexible dynamics and flexible function form with regard to the “news impact” function. We show that the functional part of the model satisfies a type II linear integral equation and give simple conditions under which there is a unique solution. We propose an estimation method that is based…

结构方程、处理效应与计量经济政策评估AI 解读

This paper uses the marginal treatment effect (MTE) to unify the nonparametric literature on treatment effects with the econometric literature on structural estimation using a nonparametric analog of a policy invariant parameter; to generate a variety of treatment effects from a common semiparametric functional form; to organize the literature on alternative estimators; and to explore what policy questions commonly used estimators in the treatment effect literature answer. A…

纠正误差：利用高频数据与已实现波动率评估波动率预测AI 解读

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing…