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具有半参数限制的缺失数据模型的效率界AI 解读

This paper shows that the semiparametric efficiency bound for a parameter identified by an unconditional moment restriction with data missing at random (MAR) coincides with that of a particular augmented moment condition problem. The augmented system consists of the inverse probability weighted (IPW) original moment restriction and an additional conditional moment restriction which exhausts all other implications of the MAR assumption. The paper also investigates the value…

贝叶斯博弈中单调纯策略均衡的存在性AI 解读

We generalize Athey's (2001) and McAdams' (2003) results on the existence of monotone pure-strategy equilibria in Bayesian games. We allow action spaces to be compact locally complete metric semilattices and type spaces to be partially ordered probability spaces. Our proof is based on contractibility rather than convexity of best-reply sets. Several examples illustrate the scope of the result, including new applications to multi-unit auctions with risk-averse bidders.

模型置信集合AI 解读

This paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS acknowledges the limitations of the data, such that uninformative data yield a MCS with many models, whereas informative data yield a MCS with only a few models. The MCS…

预期收入对个人迁移决策的影响AI 解读

This paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once-for-all choice) and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on white males with a high-school education. Our…

含内生解释变量的广义回归模型中的因果效应检验AI 解读

A unifying framework to test for causal effects in nonlinear models is proposed. We consider a generalized linear-index regression model with endogenous regressors and no parametric assumptions on the error disturbances. To test the significance of the effect of an endogenous regressor, we propose a statistic that is a kernel-weighted version of the rank correlation statistic (tau) of Kendall (1938). The semiparametric model encompasses previous cases considered in the…

秘鲁矿业米塔制度的持久影响AI 解读

This study utilizes regression discontinuity to examine the long-run impacts of the mita, an extensive forced mining labor system in effect in Peru and Bolivia between 1573 and 1812. Results indicate that a mita effect lowers household consumption by around 25% and increases the prevalence of stunted growth in children by around 6 percentage points in subjected districts today. Using data from the Spanish Empire and Peruvian Republic to trace channels of institutional…

矩不等式的替代模型AI 解读

Behavioral choice models generate inequalities which, when combined with additional assumptions, can be used as a basis for estimation. This paper considers two sets of such assumptions and uses them in two empirical examples. The second example examines the structure of payments resulting from the upstream interactions in a vertical market. I then mimic the empirical setting for this example in a numerical analysis which computes actual equilibria, examines how their…

非正则识别、支持条件与逆权重估计AI 解读

In weighted moment condition models, we show a subtle link between identification and estimability that limits the practical usefulness of estimators based on these models. In particular, if it is necessary for (point) identification that the weights take arbitrarily large values, then the parameter of interest, though point identified, cannot be estimated at the regular (parametric) rate and is said to be irregularly identified. This rate depends on relative tail conditions…

概率序列机制与随机优先机制的渐近等价性AI 解读

The random priority (random serial dictatorship) mechanism is a common method for assigning objects. The mechanism is easy to implement and strategy-proof. However, this mechanism is inefficient, because all agents may be made better off by another mechanism that increases their chances of obtaining more preferred objects. This form of inefficiency is eliminated by a mechanism called probabilistic serial, but this mechanism is not strategy-proof. Thus, which mechanism to…

完全信息离散博弈的识别与估计AI 解读

We discuss the identification and estimation of discrete games of complete information. Following Bresnahan and Reiss (1990, 1991), a discrete game is a generalization of a standard discrete choice model where utility depends on the actions of other players. Using recent algorithms to compute all of the Nash equilibria to a game, we propose simulation-based estimators for static, discrete games. We demonstrate that the model is identified under weak functional form…

收益与监控结构未知的重复博弈AI 解读

This paper studies repeated games with imperfect public monitoring where the players are uncertain both about the payoff functions and about the relationship between the distribution of signals and the actions played. We introduce the concept of perfect public ex post equilibrium (PPXE), and show that it can be characterized with an extension of the techniques used to study perfect public equilibria. We develop identifiability conditions that are sufficient for a folk…

非加性特征价格模型的非参数识别与估计AI 解读

This paper studies the identification and estimation of preferences and technologies in equilibrium hedonic models. In it, we identify nonparametric structural relationships with nonadditive heterogeneity. We determine what features of hedonic models can be identified from equilibrium observations in a single market under weak assumptions about the available information. We then consider use of additional information about structural functions and heterogeneity…

经验有助于学习吗？专业人士与实验室中的极小极大策略AI 解读

Does expertise in strategic behavior obtained in the field transfer to the abstract setting of the laboratory? Palacios-Huerta and Volij (2008) argued that the behavior of professional soccer players in mixed-strategy games conforms closely to minimax play, while the behavior of students (who are presumably novices in strategic situations requiring unpredictability) does not. We reexamine their data, showing that the play of professionals is inconsistent with the minimax…

无交叉的分位数与概率曲线AI 解读

This paper proposes a method to address the longstanding problem of lack of monotonicity in estimation of conditional and structural quantile functions, also known as the quantile crossing problem (Bassett and Koenker (1982)). The method consists in sorting or monotone rearranging the original estimated non-monotone curve into a monotone rearranged curve. We show that the rearranged curve is closer to the true quantile curve than the original curve in finite samples,…

认知与非认知技能形成技术的估计AI 解读

This paper formulates and estimates multistage production functions for child cognitive and noncognitive skills. Output is determined by parental environments and investments at different stages of childhood. We estimate the elasticity of substitution between investments in one period and stocks of skills in that period to assess the benefits of early investment in children compared to later remediation. We establish nonparametric identification of a general class of…

矩不等式部分识别模型的 Bootstrap 推断：识别集覆盖AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel bootstrap procedure to perform inference in a wide class of partially identified econometric models. We consider econometric models defined by finitely many weak moment inequalities,2 which encompass many applications of economic interest. The objective of our inferential procedure is to cover the identified set with a prespecified probability.3 We compare our bootstrap procedure, a competing asymptotic approximation, and subsampling procedures…

动态离散博弈的序贯估计：评论AI 解读

Recursive procedures which are based on iterating on the best response mapping have difficulties converging to all equilibria in multi-player games. We illustrate these difficulties by revisiting the asymptotic properties of the iterative nested pseudo maximum likelihood method for estimating dynamic games introduced by Aguirregabiria and Mira (2007). An example shows that the iterative method may not be consistent. Copyright 2010 The Econometric Society.

强一致的自确认均衡AI 解读

Fudenberg and Levine (1993a) introduced the notion of self-confirming equilibrium, which is generally less restrictive than Nash equilibrium. Fudenberg and Levine also defined a concept of consistency, and claimed in their Theorem 4 that with consistency and other conditions on beliefs, a self-confirming equilibrium has a Nash equilibrium outcome. We provide a counterexample that disproves Theorem 4 and prove an alternative by replacing consistency with a more restrictive…

通过第一阶段预测平均构造最优工具变量AI 解读

This paper considers model averaging as a way to construct optimal instruments for the two-stage least squares (2SLS), limited information maximum likelihood (LIML), and Fuller estimators in the presence of many instruments. We propose averaging across least squares predictions of the endogenous variables obtained from many different choices of instruments and then use the average predicted value of the endogenous variables in the estimation stage. The weights for averaging…

离散结果的工具变量模型AI 解读

Single equation instrumental variable models for discrete outcomes are shown to be set identifying, not point identifying, for the structural functions that deliver the values of the discrete outcome. Bounds on identified sets are derived for a general nonparametric model and sharp set identification is demonstrated in the binary outcome case. Point identification is typically not achieved by imposing parametric restrictions. The extent of an identified set varies with the…

避免维度诅咒的非线性动态模型求解、估计与选择AI 解读

We present a comprehensive framework for Bayesian estimation of structural nonlinear dynamic economic models on sparse grids to overcome the curse of dimensionality for approximations. We apply sparse grids to a global polynomial approximation of the model solution, to the quadrature of integrals arising as rational expectations, and to three new nonlinear state space filters which speed up the sequential importance resampling particle filter. The posterior of the structural…

允许 √n 一致条件估计的含未观测异质性动态二元面板模型AI 解读

A model for binary panel data is introduced which allows for state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity beyond the effect of available covariates. The model is of quadratic exponential type and its structure closely resembles that of the dynamic logit model. However, it has the advantage of being easily estimable via conditional likelihood with at least two observations (further to an initial observation) and even in the presence of time dummies among the regressors.…

Copula 与时间依赖AI 解读

An emerging literature in time series econometrics concerns the modeling of potentially nonlinear temporal dependence in stationary Markov chains using copula functions. We obtain sufficient conditions for a geometric rate of mixing in models of this kind. Geometric β-mixing is established under a rather strong sufficient condition that rules out asymmetry and tail dependence in the copula function. Geometric ρ-mixing is obtained under a weaker condition that permits both…

边际政策变化的评估与决策边界人群的平均处理效应AI 解读

This paper develops methods for evaluating marginal policy changes. We characterize how the effects of marginal policy changes depend on the direction of the policy change, and show that marginal policy effects are fundamentally easier to identify and to estimate than conventional treatment parameters. We develop the connection between marginal policy effects and the average effect of treatment for persons on the margin of indifference between participation in treatment and…