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不可逆性与误设 ARMA 模型的伪极大似然估计AI 解读

Recently Tanaka and Satchell [11] investigated the limiting properties of local maximizers of the Gaussian pseudo-likelihood function of a misspecified moving average model of order one in case the spectral density of the data process has a zero at frequency zero. We show that pseudo-maximum likelihood estimators in the narrower sense, that is, global maximizers of the Gaussian pseudo-likelihood function, may exhibit behavior drastically different from that of the local…

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重新考察随机向量的集中椭球AI 解读

Alternative definitions of the concentration ellipsoid of a random vector are surveyed, and an extension of the concentration ellipsoid of Darmois is suggested as being the most convenient and natural definition. The advantage of the proposed definition in providing substantially simplified proofs of results in (linear) estimation theory is discussed, and is illustrated by new and short proofs of two key results. A not-so-well-known, but elementary, extremal representation…

受限因变量模型：最大似然估计与单侧假设检验AI 解读

The limited dependent variable models with errors having log-concave density functions are studied here. For such models with normal errors, the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator was established by Amemiya [1]. We show, when the density of the error distribution is log-concave, that the maximum likelihood estimator exists with arbitrarily large probability for large sample sizes, and is asymptotically normal. The general theory presented here includes…

误设误差成分模型中回归系数方差的估计AI 解读

In a regression model with an arbitrary number of error components, the covariance matrix of the disturbances has three equivalent representations as linear combinations of matrices. Furthermore, this property is invariant with respect to powers, matrix addition, and matrix multiplication. This result is applied to the derivation and interpretation of the inconsistency of the estimated coefficient variances when the error components structure is improperly restricted. This…

实现渐近正态性的半非参数估计量自适应规则AI 解读

In econometrics, seminonparametric (SNP) estimators originated in the consumer demand literature. The Fourier flexible form is a well-known example. The idea is to replace the consumer's indirect utility function with a truncated series expansion and then use a parametric procedure, such as nonlinear multivariate regression, to set a confidence interval on an elasticity. More recently, SNP estimators have been used in nonlinear time series analysis. A truncated Hermite…

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含混合存量、流量数据及外生变量导数的开放高阶连续时间动态模型AI 解读

This paper is concerned with deriving formulae for higher order derivatives of exogenous variables for use in estimating the parameters of an open secondorder continuous time model with mixed stock and flow data and first and second order derivatives of exogenous variables which are not observable. This should provide the basis for the future estimation of continuous time models in a range of applied areas using the new Gaussian estimation computer program developed by…

采样频率变化下的检验一致性AI 解读

This paper considers the consistency property of some test statistics based on a time series of data. While the usual consistency criterion is based on keeping the sampling interval fixed, we let the sampling interval take any equispaced path as the sample size increases to infinity. We consider tests of the null hypotheses of the random walk and randomness against positive autocorrelation (stationary or explosive). We show that tests of the unit root hypothesis based on the…

特征根位于或接近单位圆的自回归最小二乘估计量的渐近行为AI 解读

Some asymptotic properties of the least-squares estimator of the parameters of an AR model of order p, p ≥ 1, are studied when the roots of the characteristic polynomial of the given AR model are on or near the unit circle. Specifically, the convergence in distribution is established and the corresponding limiting random variables are represented in terms of functionals of suitable Brownian motions. Further, the preceding convergence in distribution is strengthened to that…

非参数 t 检验的非一致界AI 解读

This paper gives simple nonuniform bounds on the tail areas of the permutation distribution of the usual Student's t -statistic when the observations are independent with symmetric distributions. As opposed to uniform bounds, nonuniform bounds depend on the observed sample. It is shown that the nonuniform bounds proposed are always tighter than uniform exponential bounds previously suggested. The use of the bounds to perform nonparametric t -tests is discussed and numerical…

平稳一阶自回归模型的连续时间近似AI 解读

We consider the least-squares estimator in a strictly stationary first-order autoregression without an estimated intercept. We study its continuous time asymptotic distribution based on an asymptotic framework where the sampling interval converges to zero as the sample size increases. We derive a momentgenerating function which permits the calculation of percentage points and moments of this asymptotic distribution and assess the adequacy of the approximation to the finite…

一阶自回归预测的偏差AI 解读

The exact finite sample behavior is investigated on the bias of multiperiod leastsquares forecasts in the normal autoregressive model y t = α + β y t –1 + u t . Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of the bias and an expression is presented which we use to obtain exact numerical results for finite samples. The unit root and near unit root behavior is studied in detail and some popular preconceptions about the behavior of the bias are shown to be…

最小绝对偏差回归估计量的渐近理论AI 解读

The LAD estimator of the vector parameter in a linear regression is defined by minimizing the sum of the absolute values of the residuals. This paper provides a direct proof of asymptotic normality for the LAD estimator. The main theorem assumes deterministic carriers. The extension to random carriers includes the case of autoregressions whose error terms have finite second moments. For a first-order autoregression with Cauchy errors the LAD estimator is shown to converge at…