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时间序列筛自助法的不变原理AI 解读

This paper establishes an invariance principle applicable for the asymptotic analysis of sieve bootstrap in time series. The sieve bootstrap is based on the approximation of a linear process by a finite autoregressive process of order increasing with the sample size, and resampling from the approximated autoregression. In this context, we prove an invariance principle for the bootstrap samples obtained from the approximated autoregressive process. It is of the strong form…

聚合数据下的非参数估计AI 解读

We introduce a kernel-based estimator of the density function and regression function for data that have been grouped into family totals. We allow for a common intrafamily component but require that observations from different families be independent. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality for our procedures. As usual, the rates of convergence can be very slow depending on the behavior of the characteristic function at infinity. We investigate the practical…

结构断点的稳健估计AI 解读

This paper proposes robust M -estimators of dynamic linear models with a structural break of unknown location. Rates of convergence and limiting distributions for the estimated shift point and the estimated regression parameters are derived. The analysis is carried out in the framework of possibly dependent observations and also with trending regressors. The asymptotic distribution of the break location estimator is obtained both for fixed magnitude of shift and for shift…

未知时点水平变化下的时间序列单位根检验AI 解读

Unit root tests for time series with level shifts of general form are considered when the timing of the shift is unknown. It is proposed to estimate the nuisance parameters of the data generation process including the shift date in a first step and apply standard unit root tests to the residuals. The estimation of the nuisance parameters is done in such a way that the unit root tests on the residuals have the same limiting distributions as for the case of a known break date.…

混合回归与空间自回归模型中最小二乘的一致性和效率AI 解读

Least squares estimation has casually been dismissed as an inconsistent estimation method for mixed regressive, spatial autoregressive models with or without spatial correlated disturbances. Although this statement is correct for a wide class of models, we show that, in economic spatial environments where each unit can be influenced aggregately by a significant portion of units in the population, least squares estimators can be consistent. Indeed, they can even be…

一种在计量经济学中具有应用价值的分块求逆公式AI 解读

In this paper a novel partitioned inversion formula is obtained in terms of the orthogonal complements of off-diagonal blocks, with the emblematic matrix of unit-root econometrics emerging as the leading diagonal block of the inverse. The result paves the way to a straightforward derivation of a key result of vector autoregressive econometrics.

协整向量线性约束检验：Wald 与似然比检验的有限样本大小和功效AI 解读

The Wald test for linear restrictions on cointegrating vectors is compared in finite samples using the Monte Carlo method. The Wald test is calculated within the vector error-correction based estimation methods of Bewley, Orden, Yang, and Fisher (1994, Journal of Econometrics 64, 3–27) and of Johansen (1991, Econometrica 59, 1551–1580), the canonical cointegration method of Park (1992, Econometrica 60, 119–143), the dynamic ordinary least squares method of Phillips and…

在不可观测成分框架中用微分差分方程刻画周期行为AI 解读

This paper considers a continuous time unobserved components model in which the cyclical component follows a differential-difference equation whereas the trend and seasonal components follow more standard differential equations. Estimation of the parameters of the model with either a stock or a flow variable is analyzed using a frequency domain Gaussian estimator whose asymptotic properties are derived paying particular attention to the role of a truncation parameter that…

多组线性潜变量模型中的渐近稳健性AI 解读

Standard methods for analyzing linear-latent variable models rely on the assumption that the observed variables are normally distributed. Normality allows statistical inferences to be carried out based solely on the first-and second-order moments. In general, inferences for nonnormally distributed data require the estimates of matrices of third-and fourth-order moments. In the present paper, we show that inferences based on normal theory retain validity and asymptotic…

加性模型中交互作用的非参数估计与检验AI 解读

We consider an additive model with second-order interaction terms. Both marginal integration estimators and a combined backfitting-integration estimator are proposed for all components of the model and their derivatives. The corresponding asymptotic distributions are derived. Moreover, two test statistics for testing the presence of interactions are proposed. Asymptotics for the test functions and local power results are obtained. Because direct implementation of the test…

时间序列的回归分位数AI 解读

In this paper we study nonparametric estimation of regression quantiles for time series data by inverting a weighted Nadaraya–Watson (WNW) estimator of conditional distribution function, which was first used by Hall, Wolff, and Yao (1999, Journal of the American Statistical Association 94, 154–163). First, under some regularity conditions, we establish the asymptotic normality and weak consistency of the WNW conditional distribution estimator for α-mixing time series at both…

看似随机游走的平稳过程：离散与连续时间有界随机游走AI 解读

Several economic and financial time series are bounded by an upper and lower finite limit (e.g., interest rates). It is not possible to say that these time series are random walks because random walks are limitless with probability one (as time goes to infinity). Yet, some of these time series behave just like random walks. In this paper we propose a new approach that takes into account these ideas. We propose a discrete-time and a continuous-time process (diffusion process)…

样本选择模型中的截距估计AI 解读

We provide a proof of the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator suggested by Heckman (1990, American Economic Review 80, 313–318) for the intercept of a semiparametrically estimated sample selection model. The estimator is based on “identification at infinity,” which leads to nonstandard convergence rate.

ARCH(∞) 模型的平稳性AI 解读

We continue investigation of the ARCH(∞) model begun in Giraitis, Kokoszka, and Leipus (2000, Econometric Theory 16, 3–22). Nonrestrictive conditions for the existence of a strictly stationary solution are established. The paper generalizes the results of Nelson (1990, Econometric Theory 6, 318–334) and Bougerol and Picard (1992, Journal of Econometrics 52, 115–127) to the ARCH(∞) model.

多工具变量情形下的最优推断AI 解读

In this paper, I derive the efficiency bound of the structural parameter in a linear simultaneous equations model with many instruments. The bound is derived by applying a convolution theorem to Bekker's (1994, Econometrica 62, 657–681) asymptotic approximation, where the number of instruments grows to infinity at the same rate as the sample size. Usual instrumental variables estimators with a small number of instruments are heuristically argued to be efficient estimators in…

线性过程的不变性原理及其应用AI 解读

Let X t be a linear process defined by X t = [sum ] k=0 ∞ ψ k ε t − k , where {ψ k , k ≥ 0} is a sequence of real numbers and {ε k , k = 0,±1,±2,...} is a sequence of random variables. Two basic results, on the invariance principle of the partial sum process of the X t converging to a standard Wiener process on [0,1], are presented in this paper. In the first result, we assume that the innovations ε k are independent and identically distributed random variables but do not…

依赖数据的 bootstrap 后 jackknife 方法及其一致性AI 解读

Motivated by Efron (1992, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 54, 83–111), this paper proposes a version of the moving block jackknife as a method of estimating standard errors of block-bootstrap estimators under dependence. As in the case of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations, the proposed method merely regroups the values of a statistic from different bootstrap replicates to produce an estimate of its standard error. Consistency of…

平稳多元长记忆过程的样本均值、自协方差与线性回归AI 解读

We develop an asymptotic theory for the first two sample moments of a stationary multivariate long memory process under fairly general conditions. In this theory the convergence rates and the limits (the fractional Brownian motion, the Rosenblatt process, etc.) all depend intrinsically on the degree of long memory in the process. The theory of the sample moments is then applied to the multiple linear regression model. An interesting finding is that, even though all the…

多类 GARCH 与随机波动率模型的混合性和矩性质AI 解读

This paper first provides some useful results on a generalized random coefficient autoregressive model and a generalized hidden Markov model. These results simultaneously imply strict stationarity, existence of higher order moments, geometric ergodicity, and β-mixing with exponential decay rates, which are important properties for statistical inference. As applications, we then provide easy-to-verify sufficient conditions to ensure β-mixing and finite higher order moments…

根接近一的趋势时间序列之似然推断AI 解读

This paper studies likelihood-based estimation and tests for autoregressive time series models with deterministic trends and general disturbance distributions. In particular, a joint estimation of the trend coefficients and the autoregressive parameter is considered. Asymptotic analysis on the M -estimators is provided. It is shown that the limiting distributions of these estimators involve nonlinear equation systems of Brownian motions even for the simple case of least…

利用小波进行 ARCH 效应的单侧检验AI 解读

There has been increasing interest recently in hypothesis testing with inequality restrictions. An important example in time series econometrics is hypotheses on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH). We propose a one-sided test for ARCH effects using a wavelet spectral density estimator at frequency zero of a squared regression residual series. The square of an ARCH process is positively correlated at all lags, resulting in a spectral mode at frequency zero.…

通过部分 Lq 范数估计加性非参数模型：分数阶的代价AI 解读

We propose a new method for estimating additive nonparametric regression models based on taking the L q median of a sample of kernel estimators. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of our procedures. The rate of convergence depends on the value of q . For q > 3/2 one has the usual one-dimensional rate, but if q ≤ 3/2 the rate can be slower.

计量经济学会青年学者密集研讨会AI 解读

This inaugural Workshop for Young Scholars was arranged under the auspices of and with financial support from the Econometric Society and the Econometric Society Australasian Standing Committee (ESASC). Twenty-five scholars met for two days in Hamilton, New Zealand immediately following the Econometric Society Australasian Meeting which was held in Auckland over July 6–8. (A report by Les Oxley on these Econometric Society Meetings, entitled “2001 Econometric Society…

广义动态因子模型：表示理论AI 解读

This paper, along with the companion paper Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2000, Review of Economics and Statistics 82, 540–554), introduces a new model—the generalized dynamic factor model —for the empirical analysis of financial and macroeconomic data sets characterized by a large number of observations both cross section and over time. This model provides a generalization of the static approximate factor model of Chamberlain (1983, Econometrica 51, 1181–1304) and…