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不平衡协整AI 解读

Recently, increasing interest in the issue of fractional cointegration has emerged from theoretical and empirical viewpoints. Here, as opposed to the traditional prescription of unit root observables with weak dependent cointegrating errors, the orders of integration of these series are allowed to take real values, but, as in the traditional framework, equality of the orders of at least two observable series is necessary for cointegration. This assumption, in view of the…

工具变量估计量精确性质的进一步研究AI 解读

We revisit the exact properties of two-stage least squares and limited information maximum likelihood estimators in a structural equation/instrumental variables regression under Gaussian assumptions. Simple derivations based on conditioning serve both to demystify the apparently complicated formulas, and to isolate the key quantities that determine the properties of the estimators. Some recent results obtained under weak-instrument asymptotics are sharpened and clarified by…

不增加方差的长记忆参数偏差缩减对数周期图与 Whittle 估计AI 解读

The bias-reduced log-periodogram estimator of Andrews and Guggenberger (2003, Econometrica 71, 675–712) for the long-memory parameter d in a stationary long-memory time series reduces the asymptotic bias of the original log-periodogram estimator of Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) by an order of magnitude but inflates the asymptotic variance by a multiplicative constant cr, for example, c1 = 2.25 and c2 = 3.52. In this paper, we introduce a new, computationally attractive…

一类 GARCH 过程的尾部行为AI 解读

In this paper, some structural properties of a family of generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes are considered. First, a sufficient and necessary condition for the strict stationarity of this family of GARCH processes is given. Second, some simple conditions for the existence of the moments of the family of GARCH processes are also derived. Finally, we describe the tail of the marginal distribution of the family of GARCH processes.I am…

固定效应模型误差序列相关的 Portmanteau 检验AI 解读

We propose a portmanteau test for serial correlation of the error term in a fixed effects model. The test is derived as a Lagrange multiplier test, but it also has a straightforward Wald test interpretation. In Monte Carlo experiments, the test displays good size and power properties.The authors thank the co-editor, the referee, David Drukker, Christian Hansen, and Jeffrey Wooldridge for their helpful comments.

无需观测过程矩假设的一般 GARCH(1,1) 模型混合性质AI 解读

We consider general, and possibly nonparametric, GARCH(1,1) processes. First we give conditions for the existence and the uniqueness of stationary ergodic solutions. Then we identify additional conditions for geometric ergodicity. These conditions consist of mild restrictions on the distribution of the latent independent process. No moment assumption is made on the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) process. Applications to the asymptotic…

《多元时间序列分析新导论》书籍评介AI 解读

Vector time series analysis has become a standard tool in macroeconometrics and in empirical finance since the early 1980s. Over the last two decades, Helmut Lütkepohl has published extensively on virtually all topics covered in this book, which puts him in an excellent position for writing an authoritative textbook on this subject.

Burridge–Guerre 非参数单位根检验的推广AI 解读

In this note the nonparametric unit root test of Burridge and Guerre (1996, Econometric Theory, 12, 705–723), which is based on the standardized number of crossings of a level of a random walk, is extended in two ways, allowing for a deterministic trend in the process and more general innovations. The test has a well-known standard limit distribution. Monte Carlo experiments revealed the good finite-sample properties of the proposed test.The authors appreciate helpful…

内生解释变量单方程协整模型中的 fixed-b 渐近理论AI 解读

This note uses fixed bandwidth (fixed-b) asymptotic theory to suggest a new approach to testing cointegration parameters in a single-equation cointegration environment. It is shown that the standard tests still have asymptotic distributions that are free of serial correlation nuisance parameters regardless of the bandwidth or kernel used, even if the regressors in the cointegration relationship are endogenous.I thank Tim Vogelsang for his guidance, Pentti Saikkonen for the…

基于小波谱密度估计的多元时间序列序列相关检验AI 解读

A new one-sided test for serial correlation in multivariate time series models is proposed. The test is based on a comparison between a multivariate spectral density estimator and the spectral density under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation. Duchesne and Roy (2004, Journal of Multivariate Analysis 89, 148–180) considered a multivariate kernel-based spectral density estimator. However, when the spectral density exhibits irregular features (because of strong…

参数条件分布的非参数 Bootstrap 检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a bootstrap test for the correct specification of parametric conditional distributions. It extends Zheng's test (Zheng, 2000, Econometric Theory 16, 667–691) to allow for discrete dependent variables and for mixed discrete and continuous conditional variables. We establish the asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic with data-driven stochastic smoothing parameters. By smoothing both the discrete and continuous variables via the method of…

含单整协变量的半参数二元选择模型AI 解读

This paper studies a semiparametric nonstationary binary choice model. Imposing a spherical normalization constraint on the parameter for identification purposes, we find that the maximum score estimator and smoothed maximum score estimator are at least [square root of n]-consistent. Comparing this rate to the convergence rate of the parametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), we show that when a normalization restriction is imposed on the parameter, the Park and Phillips…

金融计量中双幂变差的极限定理AI 解读

In this paper we provide an asymptotic analysis of generalized bipower measures of the variation of price processes in financial economics. These measures encompass the usual quadratic variation, power variation, and bipower variations that have been highlighted in recent years in financial econometrics. The analysis is carried out under some rather general Brownian semimartingale assumptions, which allow for standard leverage effects.Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen's work is…

条件分位数函数相等的相合非参数检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a consistent nonparametric test for testing for equality of unknown conditional quantile curves across subgroups within a survey data framework. Moreover, to improve the small-sample performance of the test, we propose a modified version of wild bootstrap procedure in a quantile context. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the performance of the test in small samples is adequate but is improved significantly when the bootstrap critical values are used.I thank…

动态回归模型的数据驱动非参数设定检验AI 解读

The paper introduces a new nonparametric specification test for dynamic regression models. The test combines chi-square statistics based on Fourier series regression. A data-driven choice of the regression order, which uses the square root of the number of Fourier coefficients, is proposed. The benefits of the new test are (1) the selection procedure produces explicit and chi-square critical values that give a finite-sample size close to the nominal size; (2) the test is…

关于使用平均数据进行识别的说明AI 解读

In most cases where estimation with averaged data is performed, interest lies on the parameters of a model at the individual level, but grouped data are used because disaggregate data are not observed. In this note we study the conditions under which it is possible to consistently estimate the parameters of the individual data model using averaged data, giving particular attention to the case of endogenous selection into groups.We are grateful to an anonymous referee for…

弱识别下非线性与时间序列模型的广义经验似然推断AI 解读

This paper studies robust inference methods for nonlinear moment restriction models with weakly identified parameters in time series contexts. Our methods are based on generalized empirical likelihood with kernel smoothing. The proposed test statistics, which follow the standard χ2 limiting distributions, are robust to weak identification and dependent data.The author is deeply grateful to Bruce Hansen, John Kennan, and Gautam Tripathi for their guidance and time. Comments…

动态面板模型中极大似然估计的偏差削减AI 解读

This paper investigates a simple dynamic linear panel regression model with both fixed effects and time effects. Using “large n and large T” asymptotics, we approximate the distribution of the fixed effect estimator of the autoregressive parameter in the dynamic linear panel model and derive its asymptotic bias. We find that the same higher order bias correction approach proposed by Hahn and Kuersteiner (2002, Econometrica 70, 1639–1659) can be applied to the dynamic linear…

GARCH 模型的经验似然方法AI 解读

This paper develops an empirical likelihood approach for regular generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and GARCH models with unit roots. For regular GARCH models, it is shown that the log empirical likelihood ratio statistic asymptotically follows a χ2 distribution. For GARCH models with unit roots, two versions of the empirical likelihood methods, the least squares score and the maximum likelihood score functions, are considered. For both…

条件异方差时间序列的方差恒定性监测AI 解读

We propose several methods of on-line detection of a change in unconditional variance in a conditionally heteroskedastic time series. We follow the paradigm of Chu, Stinchcombe, and White (1996, Econometrica 64, 1045–1065) in which the first m observations are assumed to follow a stationary process and the monitoring scheme has asymptotically controlled probability of falsely rejecting the null hypothesis of no change. Our theory is applicable to broad classes of GARCH-type…

关于另一类长期方差比单位根检验AI 解读

This paper investigates the effects of consistent and inconsistent long-run variance estimation on a test for a unit root, based on the generalization of the von Neumann ratio. The results from the Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the unit root tests based on an inconsistent estimator have less size distortion and more stability of size across different autocorrelation specifications as compared to the tests based on a consistent estimator. This improvement in size…

部分冗余观测AI 解读

Necessary and sufficient conditions are established for the second subsample to be partially redundant given the first subsample for the best linear unbiased estimator of a subset of the coefficient vector of a general linear regression model.We thank the Co-editor for his very helpful comments on an earlier draft.

含未知滞后参数的微分差分方程组估计AI 解读

This paper considers the estimation of the parameters of general systems of stochastic differential-difference equations in which the lag parameters themselves are treated as unknown and are not restricted to be integers and therefore form part of the parameter vector to be estimated. The asymptotic properties of an infeasible frequency domain maximum likelihood estimator are established in addition to those of a feasible version based on truncating an infinite series that…

基于 GARCH 创新密度的拟合优度检验AI 解读

Testing goodness (or lack) of fit for distributions of observable and nonobservable random variables is one of the main topics in statistics. When they exist, the corresponding density functions and their shapes allow researchers to easily recognize the underlying distribution functions. The present paper is concerned with the densities of (unobservable) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) innovations and also with developing goodness-of-fit…