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利用可行准广义最小二乘改进和扩展样本末端不稳定性检验AI 解读

This paper extends the Andrews (2002, Econometrica 71, 1661–1694) and Andrews and Kim (2006, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 24, 379–394) ordinary least squares–based end-of-sample instability tests for linear regression models. The author proposes to quasi-difference the data first using a consistent estimate of the sum of the autoregressive coefficients of the error process and then test for the end-of-sample instability. For the cointegration model, the feasible…

一般非线性 AR(1) 模型的线性性上确界检验AI 解读

We consider linearity testing in a general class of nonlinear time series models of order one, involving a nonnegative nuisance parameter that (a) is not identified under the null hypothesis and (b) gives the linear model when equal to zero. This paper studies the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test and asymptotically equivalent supremum tests. The asymptotic distribution is described as a functional of chi-square processes and is obtained without imposing a…

向量自回归模型中多项式协分数关系的表示理论AI 解读

We extend the representation theory of the autoregressive model in the fractional lag operator of Johansen (2008, Econometric Theory 24, 651–676). A recursive algorithm for the characterization of cofractional relations and the corresponding adjustment coefficients is given, and it is shown under which condition the solution of the model is fractional of order d and displays cofractional relations of order d − b and polynomial cofractional relations of order d − 2 b ,…, d −…

存在截面依赖的面板单位根检验：进一步研究AI 解读

An effective way to control for cross-section correlation when conducting a panel unit root test is to remove the common factors from the data. However, there remain many ways to use the defactored residuals to construct a test. In this paper, we use the panel analysis of nonstationarity in idiosyncratic and common components (PANIC) residuals to form two new tests. One estimates the pooled autoregressive coefficient, and one simply uses a sample moment. We establish their…

误差密度可能无穷时条件异方差下的 LAD 渐近理论AI 解读

Least absolute deviations (LAD) estimation of linear time series models is considered under conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. The limit theory of the LAD estimator is obtained without assuming the finite density condition for the errors that is required in standard LAD asymptotics. The results are particularly useful in application of LAD estimation to financial time series data.

随机系数模型的非参数分析AI 解读

Linearity in a causal relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors is a common assumption throughout economics. In this paper we consider the case when the coefficients in this relationship are random and distributed independently from the regressors. Our aim is to identify and estimate the distribution of the coefficients nonparametrically. We propose a kernel-based estimator for the joint probability density of the coefficients. Although this estimator…

非受限 ECCC-GARCH 模型中的负向波动溢出AI 解读

This paper considers a formulation of the extended constant or time-varying conditional correlation GARCH model that allows for volatility feedback of either the positive or negative sign. In the previous literature, negative volatility spillovers were ruled out by the assumption that all the parameters of the model are nonnegative, which is a sufficient condition for ensuring the positive definiteness of the conditional covariance matrix. In order to allow for negative…

异方差时间序列模型的渐近分布无关诊断检验AI 解读

This article investigates model checks for a class of possibly nonlinear heteroskedastic time series models, including but not restricted to ARMA-GARCH models. We propose omnibus tests based on functionals of certain weighted standardized residual empirical processes. The new tests are asymptotically distribution-free, suitable when the conditioning set is infinite-dimensional, and consistent against a class of Pitman’s local alternatives converging at the parametric rate n…

协方差估计的两阶段代入带宽选择及其实施AI 解读

The two most popular bandwidth choice rules for kernel HAC estimation have been proposed by Andrews (1991) and Newey and West (1994). This paper suggests an alternative approach that estimates an unknown quantity in the optimal bandwidth for the HAC estimator (called normalized curvature ) using a general class of kernels, and derives the optimal bandwidth that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error of the estimator of normalized curvature. It is shown that the optimal…

条件误差修正模型中的协整筛式 bootstrap 检验AI 解读

In this paper we propose a bootstrap version of the Wald test for cointegration in a single-equation conditional error correction model. The multivariate sieve bootstrap is used to deal with dependence in the series. We show that the introduced bootstrap test is asymptotically valid. We also analyze the small sample properties of our test by simulation and compare it with the asymptotic test and several alternative bootstrap tests. The bootstrap test offers significant…

无限阶非平稳自回归的预测误差AI 解读

Assume that observations are generated from nonstationary autoregressive (AR) processes of infinite order. We adopt a finite-order approximation model to predict future observations and obtain an asymptotic expression for the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of the least squares predictor. This expression provides the first exact assessment of the impacts of nonstationarity, model complexity, and model misspecification on the corresponding MSPE. It not only provides a…

部分识别结构方程中 LIML 估计量的渐近分布AI 解读

We derive a closed-form expression for the asymptotic distribution of the LIML estimator for the coefficients of both endogenous and exogenous variables in a partially identified linear structural equation. We extend previous results of Phillips (1989) and Choi and Phillips (1992), where the focus was on IV estimators. We show that partial failure of identification affects the LIML in that its moments do not exist even asymptotically.

处理效应分布的尖锐界及其统计推断AI 解读

In this paper, we propose nonparametric estimators of sharp bounds on the distribution of treatment effects of a binary treatment and establish their asymptotic distributions. We note the possible failure of the standard bootstrap with the same sample size and apply the fewer-than- n bootstrap to making inferences on these bounds. The finite sample performances of the confidence intervals for the bounds based on normal critical values, the standard bootstrap, and the…

共爆炸过程分析AI 解读

A vector autoregressive model allowing for unit roots as well as an explosive characteristic root is developed. The Granger-Johansen representation shows that this results in processes with two common features: a random walk and an explosively growing process. Cointegrating and coexplosive vectors can be found that eliminate these common factors. The likelihood ratio test for a simple hypothesis on the coexplosive vectors is analyzed. The method is illustrated using data…

非线性协整检验AI 解读

This paper develops tests for the null hypothesis of cointegration in the nonlinear regression model with I (1) variables. The test statistics we use in this paper are Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin’s (1992; KPSS hereafter) tests for the null of stationarity, though using other kinds of tests is also possible. The tests are shown to depend on the limiting distributions of the estimators and parameters of the nonlinear model when they use full-sample residuals from…

具有有限个多重均衡的面板数据模型AI 解读

We study a nonlinear panel data model in which the fixed effects are assumed to have finite support. The fixed effects estimator is known to have the incidental parameters problem. We contribute to the literature by making a qualitative observation that the incidental parameters problem in this model may not be not as severe as in the conventional case. Because fixed effects have finite support, the probability of correctly identifying the fixed effect converges to one even…

渐近尺寸：子抽样与 m out of n Bootstrap 的问题AI 解读

This paper considers inference based on a test statistic that has a limit distribution that is discontinuous in a parameter. The paper shows that subsampling and m out of n bootstrap tests based on such a test statistic often have asymptotic size—defined as the limit of exact size—that is greater than the nominal level of the tests. This is due to a lack of uniformity in the pointwise asymptotics. We determine precisely the asymptotic size of such tests under a general set…

相依异质数据的递归预测组合AI 解读

This paper studies a procedure to combine individual forecasts that achieve theoretical optimal performance. The results apply to a wide variety of loss functions and only require a tail condition on the data sequences. The theoretical results show that the bounds are also valid in the case of time varying combination weights.

扩散模型的重加权函数估计AI 解读

The local linear method is popular in estimating nonparametric continuous-time diffusion models, but it may produce negative results for the diffusion (or volatility) functions and thus lead to insensible inference. We demonstrate this using U.S. interest rate data. We propose a new functional estimation method of the diffusion coefficient based on reweighting the conventional Nadaraya–Watson estimator. It preserves the appealing bias properties of the local linear estimator…

随机系数 GLARCH(1,1) 过程的同期聚合AI 解读

The paper discusses contemporaneous aggregation of the Linear ARCH (LARCH) model as defined in (1), which was introduced in Robinson (1991) and studied in Giraitis, Robinson, and Surgailis (2000) and other works. We show that the limiting aggregate of the (G)eneralized LARCH(1,1) process in (3)–(4) with random Beta distributed coefficient β exhibits long memory. In particular, we prove that squares of the limiting aggregated process have slowly decaying correlations and…

未知均值与时间趋势下的分数单整精确局部 Whittle 估计AI 解读

Recently, Shimotsu and Phillips (2005, Annals of Statistics 33, 1890–1933) developed a new semiparametric estimator, the exact local Whittle (ELW) estimator, of the memory parameter ( d ) in fractionally integrated processes. The ELW estimator has been shown to be consistent, and it has the same $N(0,{\textstyle{1 \over 4}})$ asymptotic distribution for all values of d , if the optimization covers an interval of width less than 9/2 and the mean of the process is known. With…

非正态误差分布下的多工具变量渐近近似AI 解读

In this paper we derive an alternative asymptotic approximation to the sampling distribution of the limited information maximum likelihood estimator and a bias-corrected version of the two-stage least squares estimator. The approximation is obtained by allowing the number of instruments and the concentration parameter to grow at the same rate as the sample size. More specifically, we allow for potentially nonnormal error distributions and obtain the conventional asymptotic…

参数估计问题中的最大一致收敛速率AI 解读

This paper considers parametric estimation problems with independent, identically nonregularly distributed data. It focuses on rate efficiency, in the sense of maximal possible convergence rates of stochastically bounded estimators, as an optimality criterion, largely unexplored in parametric estimation. Under mild conditions, the Hellinger metric, defined on the space of parametric probability measures, is shown to be an essentially universally applicable tool to determine…

条件分位数时间序列模型的半参数效率界AI 解读

We derive the semiparametric efficiency bound in dynamic models of conditional quantiles under a sole strong mixing assumption. We also provide an expression of Stein’s (1956) least favorable parametric submodel. Our approach is as follows: First, we construct a fully parametric submodel of the semiparametric model defined by the conditional quantile restriction that contains the data generating process. We then compare the asymptotic covariance matrix of the MLE obtained in…