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协变量增强的累积和泡沫监测程序AI 解读

We explore how information from covariates can be incorporated into the CUSUM-based real-time monitoring procedure for explosive asset price bubbles developed in Homm and Breitung (2012, Journal of Financial Econometrics 10, 198–231). Where dynamic covariates are present in the data generating process (DGP), the false positive rate (FPR) of the basic CUSUM procedure, which is based on the assumption that prices follow a univariate DGP, under the null of no explosivity will…

时间聚合下线性模型的稳定性AI 解读

Linear factor models dominate the field of empirical asset pricing and are largely considered a successful framework even though testing for model adequacy is uncommon in empirical research. This article develops a probabilistic argument under the assumption that return data are generated by a multivariate Lévy process and shows that linear factor models are asymptotically adequate as the return frequency declines. Rate-of-convergence results are provided assuming finite or…

含议价机制双向拍卖的非参数识别与估计AI 解读

This article studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of double auctions with one buyer and one seller. This model assumes that both bidders submit their own sealed bids, and the transaction price is determined by a weighted average between the submitted bids when the buyer’s offer is higher than the seller’s ask. It captures the bargaining process between two parties. Working within this double auction model, we first establish the nonparametric…

拓展回归模型的适用空间AI 解读

This article introduces and analyzes a framework that accommodates general heterogeneity in regression modeling. It demonstrates that regression models with fixed or time-varying parameters can be estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) and time-varying OLS methods, respectively, across a broad class of regressors and noise processes not covered by existing theory. The proposed setting facilitates the development of asymptotic theory and the estimation of robust…

异方差误差线性模型中多个变点的置信区间AI 解读

We consider the problem of estimating and deriving confidence intervals for change points in linear models with heteroscedastic errors. A CUSUM process-based estimator is proposed, and we establish its asymptotic properties when the linear regression model exhibits change points in both the regression parameters and the distribution of the errors. This theory motivates the construction of confidence sets for multiple change points by refining preliminary change point…

部分识别变系数模型的子向量推断AI 解读

This article considers a general class of varying coefficient models defined by a set of moment equalities and/or inequalities, where unknown functional parameters are not necessarily point-identified. We propose an inferential procedure for a subvector of the varying parameters and establish the asymptotic validity of the resulting confidence sets uniformly over a broad family of data-generating processes. We also propose a practical specification test for a set of…

非平稳厚尾异方差噪声下中位数自回归模型的推断AI 解读

This article studies estimation and inference in the autoregressive (AR) models with unspecified and heavy-tailed heteroskedastic noises. A piece-wise locally stationary structure of the noise is constructed to capture various forms of heterogeneity, without imposing any restrictions on the tail index. The new nonstationary AR model allows for not only time-varying conditional features but also unconditional variance and tail index. This makes it appealing in practice, with…

具有已知极点的密度及其导数：非参数估计的一致收敛率AI 解读

We study the uniform convergence rates of nonparametric estimators for a probability density function and its derivatives when the density has a known pole. Such situations arise in some structural microeconometric models, for example, in auction, labor, and consumer search, where uniform convergence rates of density functions are important for nonparametric and semiparametric estimation. Existing uniform convergence rates based on Rosenblatt’s kernel estimator are derived…

大量弱工具变量下的条件似然比检验AI 解读

This article extends the validity of the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test developed by Moreira (2003, Econometrica 71(4), 1027-–1048) to instrumental variable regression models with unknown homoskedastic error variance and many weak instruments. We argue that the conventional CLR test with estimated error variance loses exact similarity and is asymptotically invalid in this setting. We propose a modified critical value function for the likelihood ratio (LR) statistic…

数据丰富环境中的时变完全子集平均AI 解读

This study proposes two novel time-varying model-averaging methods for time-varying parameter regression models. When the number of predictors is small, we propose a novel time-varying complete subset-averaging (TVCSA) procedure, where the optimal time-varying subset size is obtained by minimizing the local leave- h -out cross-validation criterion. The TVCSA method is asymptotically optimal for achieving the lowest possible local mean squared error. When the number of…

随机系数自回归模型的实时变点监测AI 解读

We propose a family of weighted statistics based on the CUSUM process of the WLS residuals for the online detection of changepoints in a Random Coefficient Autoregressive model, using both the standard CUSUM and the Page-CUSUM process. We derive the asymptotics under the null of no changepoint for all possible weighing schemes, including the case of the standardized CUSUM, for which we derive a Darling–Erdös-type limit theorem; our results guarantee the procedure-wise size…

有限样本多处理决策的极小极大遗憾规则札记AI 解读

We study minimax regret treatment rules under matched treatment assignment in a setup where a policymaker, informed by a sample of size N , needs to decide between T different treatments for a T ≥ 2 $T\geq 2$ upper T greater than or equals 2 . Randomized rules are allowed for. We show that the generalization of the minimax regret rule derived in Schlag (2006, ELEVEN—Tests needed for a recommendation , EUI working paper) and Stoye (2009, Journal of Econometrics 151, 70–81)…

含潜变量的马尔可夫过程学习与识别AI 解读

We consider the problem of identifying the parameters of a time-homogeneous bivariate Markov chain when only one of the two variables is observable. We show that, subject to conditions that we spell out, the transition kernel and the distribution of the initial condition are uniquely recoverable (up to an arbitrary relabelling of the state space of the latent variable) from the joint distribution of four (or more) consecutive time-series observations. The result is,…

通过近似消息传递实现高维 Newey–Powell 检验AI 解读

We propose a high-dimensional extension of the heteroscedasticity test proposed in Newey and Powell (1987). Our test is based on expectile regression in the proportional asymptotic regime where $n/p \to \delta \in (0,1]$ . The asymptotic analysis of the test statistic uses the approximate message passing algorithm, from which we obtain the limiting distribution of the test and establish its asymptotic power. The numerical performance of the test is validated through an…

基于积分条件矩的一致卡方设定检验AI 解读

In spite of the omnibus property of integrated conditional moment (ICM) specification tests, they are not commonly used in empirical practice owing to features such as the non-pivotality of the test and the high computational cost of available bootstrap schemes, especially in large samples. This article proposes specification and mean independence tests based on ICM metrics. The proposed test exhibits consistency, asymptotic $\chi ^2$ -distribution under the null hypothesis,…

用于跳跃检测的随机化检验AI 解读

This article proposes sequential randomized tests to locate the presence of jumps on the paths of efficient asset prices in a continuous-time model. The randomized statistics are generated by artificially adding randomness to the robust approximations of the locally averaged returns of the efficient price. In the case of finite activity jumps, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the maximum of all the local statistics unaffected by jumps, which makes it feasible to…

时变方差下瞬时因果关系的非参数检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a consistent nonparametric test with good sampling properties to detect instantaneous causality between vector autoregressive (VAR) variables with time-varying variances. The new test takes the form of the U -statistic, and has a limiting standard normal distribution under the null. We further show that the test is consistent against any fixed alternatives, and has nontrivial asymptotic power against a class of local alternatives with a rate slower than $T^{-1/2}$…

预测回归中位于参数空间边界的参数AI 解读

We consider bootstrap inference in predictive (or Granger-causality) regressions when the parameter of interest may lie on the boundary of the parameter space, here defined by means of a smooth inequality constraint. For instance, this situation occurs when the definition of the parameter space allows for the cases of either no predictability or sign-restricted predictability. We show that in this context constrained estimation gives rise to bootstrap statistics whose limit…

局部单位根自回归中的系数随机性检验AI 解读

This study proposes a test for coefficient randomness in autoregressive models where the autoregressive coefficient is local to unity, which is empirically relevant given earlier work. Under this specification, we analyze the effect of the correlation between the random coefficient and disturbance on the properties of tests, a matter that remains largely unexplored in the literature. Our analysis reveals that tests proposed in earlier studies can have poor power when the…

最小修剪平方估计：不含干扰参数的渐近理论AI 解读

The Least Trimmed Squares (LTS) regression estimator is known to be very robust to the presence of “outliers”. It is based on a clear and intuitive idea: in a sample of size n , it searches for the h -subsample of observations with the smallest sum of squared residuals. The remaining $n-h$ observations are declared “outliers”. Fast algorithms for its computation exist. Nevertheless, the existing asymptotic theory for LTS, based on the traditional $\epsilon $ -contamination…

未知持续性形式下非线性预测回归的按时间修剪最小二乘AI 解读

Relatively, recent work by Jeganathan (2008, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1649) and Wang (2014, Econometric Theory , 30(3), 509–535) on generalized martingale central limit theorems (MCLTs) implicitly introduces a new class of instrument arrays that yield (mixed) Gaussian limit theory irrespective of the persistence level in the data. Motivated by these developments, we propose a new semiparametric method for estimation and inference in nonlinear predictive regressions…

非平稳性与模型误设引起的低频污染理论：对异方差与自相关稳健推断的影响AI 解读

We establish theoretical results about the low frequency contamination (i.e., long memory effects) induced by general nonstationarity for estimates such as the sample autocovariance and the periodogram, and deduce consequences for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference. We present explicit expressions for the asymptotic bias of these estimates. We show theoretically that nonparametric smoothing over time is robust to low frequency contamination.…

无限阶面板自回归过程的工具变量估计AI 解读

We consider instrumental variables (IV) estimation of a possibly infinite order dynamic panel autoregressive (AR) process with individual effects. The estimation is based on the sieve AR approximation, with its lag order increasing with sample size. Transforming the variable to eliminate individual effects generates an endogeneity problem, particularly when the time series is only moderately long. IV approaches are useful to obtain well-behaved estimators in panels with…

固定效应非参数面板模型的一致推断AI 解读

This article studies uniform inference on a function $g(\cdot )$ and its functionals in a nonparametric panel data model with fixed effects. The nonparametric panel model relaxes restrictions on time-series behavior by allowing for arbitrary types of stationary or nonstationary dependence (e.g., stationary mixingale, mildly stationary, or local-to-unity process). After removing the fixed effects via transformations, a sieve estimator is proposed, accompanied by Yurinskii’s…